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The big four era: where the World Rugby rankings will end after 2024
By Ben Smith
The rise of Ireland and France over the 2023 Rugby World Cup cycle has altered the world order of power in the international game, joining South Africa and New Zealand as the new ‘big four’.
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The quality of the contests played during the World Cup quarter-finals has been praised as being all-time great, setting expectations going forward that any of these big four clashes will be special.
The quarter-final defeats to the old guard does not overshadow Ireland and France’s newfound status as giants of the international game.
Ireland won 74 per cent of their Tests over the cycle, the best rate of any nation with 20 from 27 wins, closely followed by France with 21 from 29. New Zealand and South Africa finished third and fourth respectively under 65 per cent.
Ireland and France demonstrated dominance over the southern hemisphere powers, collectively sporting a record of 17 wins and just three losses against Rugby Championship teams and Fiji. This level of success is unprecedented.
England, whilst well-resourced and powerful at the organisation level, are no longer the force on the field they were.
Through the early 2010s they enjoyed U20s success at the World Championships and a golden generation of players helped capture three Six Nations titles in 2016, 2017 and 2020 and a World Cup final appearance in 2019.
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Ireland and France have been dominating at Six Nations U20 level since the late 2010s, as well as the World Rugby U20 Championships where France has taken the last three titles.
The last two Six Nations titles have been shared by the pair and they are favoured again for 2024.
England has clearly fallen behind despite a bronze place finish at the Rugby World Cup and don’t look like getting back on top anytime soon.
Wales are overachievers and certainly galvanise under Warren Gatland.
However, the results over the last cycle were disastrous winning just 24 per cent of their Tests despite managing to capture a Six Nations title in between.
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They have not proven they can beat the best of the southern hemisphere regularly, if at all in New Zealand’s case, and their U20 side has not been relevant for over 10 years.
The third southern hemisphere old power, Australia, has languished to a worst-ever ranking following a first-ever pool stage exit at the Rugby World Cup. There is a long road ahead to catch up that will take years and now a top five ranking is almost beyond reach for the fallen power.
The international game is now between the big four and everyone else. The difference in standard is palpable as illustrated by last year’s quarter-finals.
At the end of 2024 this will still be reflected in World Rugby’s rankings, but there will still be movement.
By virtue of winning the Rugby World Cup and earning the ‘boosted’ points towards their ranking, South Africa have a clear lead that will take time to chip away at.
The Springboks will hold the number one ranking for most of the year. Only a catastrophic home series against Ireland, losing 2-nil, and then losing 2-nil at home to the All Blacks would do enough damage.
But having farewelled Johnny Sexton at the Rugby World Cup, Ireland will take a step back in 2024.
Despite still possessing the world’s most agile and explosive pack, the loss of Sexton means they won’t return to the world number one any time soon.
Sexton is the standard-driver, the lynchpin of the entire attacking system, the leader and on-field dictator. Finding his replacement is not an easy task.
They will head to South Africa with a strong squad but there is a real risk they lose 2-nil.
Ireland will drop from second to fourth by the end of the year, overtaken by both New Zealand and France.
France are primed to bounce back and claim the 2024 Six Nations title fuelled by the bitter taste of their home World Cup. They have a favourable schedule, playing Ireland and England at home.
Should they win the Six Nations title, they travel to Argentina for the easiest of the July tours.
New Zealand under Scott Robertson will start with a bang and plough through Borthwick’s England side with shades of the 2004 tour. It will be one-sided, the All Blacks will ravage the English.
Heading to South Africa will be Robertson’s first real challenge and odds are that honours will be shared 1-all, with the All Blacks winning at altitude in Johannesburg and South Africa winning in Cape Town.
Not all of the November schedules are released, so the ramifications for rankings are hard to predict.
The All Blacks have two blockbuster clashes against Ireland and France which will matter greatly. They will likely lose one of them.
However, if South Africa has a cakewalk November tour and avoid any big four opponents they will skate through and remain world number one at year’s end.
World Rugby rankings end of 2024 prediction:
1. South Africa
2. New Zealand
3. France
4. Ireland
5. Wales
Looking forward to circling back here too.
So many sad Europeans still crying themselves to sleep because the Boks CONSISTENTLY better them 🤣🤣 how many world cups have france and ireland won again? Maybe make a semi final at least before coming here all tough 😂😂
Maybe people from other countries are just more capable of taking an objective view of the game 🤣 🤣😂😂
Oh look, another cowardly saffa rugby dunce pip squeak crawls out from under its rock. Boring. Try harder keyboard warrior.
Nigel jy is ‘n bliksimse doos……nou voetsek en gaan maak skoon jou kamer jou aap…..en hou op fantaseer oor jou ma jou siek etter….
Lame but typical of a worthless keyboard warrior coward.
1 - FRA
2 - IRE
3 - NZE
4 - RSA
5 - ENG
Wow. Nailing it so far.
France and Ireland are quite clearly the best and most consistent teams and will finish ranked 1 and 2. They both have outstanding depth, young teams, and the experienced players they are losing are on the decline with obvious and well tested replacements coming through. Both teams coaching teams are continuing as well so more of the same is the most likely outcome.
None of that is true for the ABs. Lack of locks and loose forwards combined with promising players who can’t go a season without significant injury lay offs will make this a painful year. Come game time the lack of depth and injuries will see a number of players no one has really heard of and are probably a few years away from being ready for international rugby being asked to make significant contributions for the ABs.
SA are not a consistent team at all and will have a similar record over the next few years playing incredibly one week, then failing to get up the next, beat the ABs but then lose to Wales.
Aged well.
This hasn’t aged particularly well, Nickers. Where is the French and Irish consistency now? Stop soaking up Ben “Bias” Smith’s jingoist drivel and start thinking for yourself my friend.
AND WINNING THE NEXT WORLD CUP
Not consistent but won the last 2 World Cups and Lions series 🤔 interesting attempt at logic
Neither Ireland or France played in South Africa last year. The Irish series in SA will paint a better picture. The reason why SA are not consistent is because the coaches are willing to experiment and let fringe players get test experience. If the main aim of some international teams is to win the world cup then SA are doing ok.
France and Ireland were so “clearly the best” they should have won the World Cup.
And what does “quite clearly the best” look like anyway? World rankings? Getting knocked out of the quarters?
Yes. Very clear.
on paper, France look like the team with most talent (despite Mr. Dupond switching for personal glory to 7s this season) …. I would still include England in the Top5, RWC2019 & 2023 proved, they do deliver, when needed (somewhat the opposite of IRE) ….
so end 2024:
1. FRA, 2. NZL, 3. RSA, 4. IRE, 5. ENG
Losing du Pont is a significant loss for France. They risked his face he was so important to their cause at the World Cup. So I’d wait and see how I they come out the gates before taking any bets on France.
The ABs are never a bad side and Razor will be a breath of fresh air I’m sure. But again, I’d give them some time to settle before taking any bets there too. Many new players in key positions.
South Africa will finish 5th or 6th. They shouldn't have made it past the quarters at the RWC
NZ
France
Australia
Ireland
South Africa or England
Poophol
LOOK WHO WON THE WORLD CUP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The tears are still flowing 🤣🤣 diddums mate, Boks will keep winning and you will keep crying.
The SH shouldn’t have made it past the quarters. You speak very highly of teams who choke under pressure.
Haha. Good one. Australia! Pffft.
But they did and the trophy cabinet is full!! Time for you to get over yourself.
As long as WR continues its horrific and now very embarrassing bias and protection of SA these rankings are meaningless. The seasonal variations also make single year rankings pointless.
🎻
What a delusional fool. But, hey, you do you. In the mean we, the real rugby fans and experts will continue to enjoy the glorious game and, especially, the Springboks’ magnificent, unparalleled fourth RWC victory where they showed their mettle by capturing the crown in spite of having by far the most difficult draw of any team EVER!
There is a reason why some actual experts (not you and the voices in your head) consider this Bok team the greatest of all time.
ask your fellow Anti-Bok Ben Smith to write an article about the inducement for WR in “protecting” RSA …. might at least be entertaining
Good to see that Ben is allowed to now and then take his troll hat off. Good for you Ben. If you keep this up you might well get respect as a rugby writer one day.
Ab’s are in my view likely to drop to 4th. Razor is good, but if he faces a future without Ardie, Richie M. et al, then he is badly under resourced. Even with them, I feel the AB’s will take time to build again.
I actually think France may be the best team post RWC, and Ireland have a lot of good young players. However the loss to injury of several key men will hurt them. The Sexton retirement is, imo, overdone. He was well over the hill at 37.
The Boks will always be hard to beat in SA, but a lot will depend on what sort of team they can field for the games this year….will they call on all the Euro/Jap players.
I would go France, Ireland, Boks, AB’s as the end of year order.
Crucial for Boks this year is to start refreshing the team a bit. It’s unlikely that a lot of those stalwarts playing in Japan and Europe will make it to 2027 at the same level as they are now. So it might be a middling year this year and we may drop from the no. 1 spot… Not for long though 😉
Yeah I like those predictions, especially France, though I’d argue the ABs are ready to go (no one transitions better).
It would suck if France struggle again. The rugby world doesn’t really need or want one pwerhouse nation, a lot of cricket nations are struggling to cope with the dynamics the awakened Indian big bash nation is providing, but if the rest can keep touch Internationally (incl u20) some of there economic might should benefit the global game. Love their rugby too.
Aside from SA world ranking this year I think it could be France, then NZ powered by Dmac and a huge improvement from Razor will be tough to beat (2024, will be a different season for France when they meet them), SAs power will see them out performing Ireland. Can’t see anyone else being close. Oh didn’t notice you still had Ireland above SA, that might be right, but I don’t think they’ll beat them in SA so I see that as deserving as having them above if nothing goes drastically wrong.
France without DuPont in 6n will be interesting- as an AB supporter I have to say Ireland would have beaten us without Sexton. Sexton played like Beauden Barrett when he plays #10 during quarter final - just shoveled ball on and was entirely predictable
Wow, congrats Ben, this was actually a well written article that was a joy to read!
You’re actually a good journo when you omit the anti-SA mindset.
Keep it up :)
These predictions look alright until the suggestion that Wales will end the year ranked 5th 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Here’s my prediction. England to surprise the All Blacks and draw or even win the series. All blacks, backs against the wall to lose in Jhb, only to win a must win in Cape Town by a single point. Ireland to draw the series against South Africa. France to win the six nations and absolutely smash the All Blacks by 20+
When Ben takes out his Springboks bitterness he actually writes interesting, articulate articles.
Agreed, this is a great piece, Please keep it up Ben!
I only see the prediction that the ABs will demolish the England as likely. The top four battles though I think will still be very exciting to watch
Meaningless “rankings” beget meaningless articles about meaningkess “rankings”.
What’s meaningless about them?