The Breakdown | Episode 46

You don’t understand re the RWC draw.

As it was taken after the RWC in 2019, Scotland were ranked 9th and were in the 3rd group of seedings. The idea of rankings being used is to provide even groups and a meritocratic draw. When the rankings are taken 4 years before this is not possible teams get better or worse over time. It works when you take the rankings snapshot as close to the tournament as possible. Thus the farcical draw we all witnessed and that World Rugby apologized for. Even teh rankings three years before teh tournament showed Scotland in the top 8 and given that they were ranked 5th when the tournament came around it is reasonable to assume that they make a QF. They would not have been de facto eliminated from their pool by the draw (in a pool with then World #1 Ireland and World Champions SA). Likewise England (and Wales) would not have got the facile draw they did.

This is what the rankings tell us. Thus we can say that much or all of the 6.5 ranking point swing from Scotland to (fellow top 6 hopeful) England would not have happenned but for the joke draw.

If Australia play Argentina first and gain ranking points they may lose these points versus SA. Although Australia are too far behind NOW to lose ranking points to SA, this may not be the case later in the year especially if Australia were scheduled to play SA later in the RC.

Sounds like the NT girls play like the NT teams of old doesn’t it? 😅