The chain of events that will trigger new rankings low for Wales

Wales will be ranked below Georgia for the first time in history if they lose in Rome this Saturday and Georgia beat the Netherlands as expected on the same day in Tbilisi.

Unlike in Paris last weekend, Wales will lose points in defeat this time around and find themselves at a new all-time low of 12th if their barren run continues.

Wales head into the weekend in 11th place in the rankings with a rating of 74.01, a fraction ahead of Georgia, whose rating of 73.85 points will remain unchanged as long as they continue their long winning streak in the Rugby Europe Championship.

With 0.26 or 0.39 of a point to be deducted depending on the size of any defeat to Italy, Wales’ new rating is guaranteed to be lower than Georgia’s, positioning them in 12th with the Lelos matching their all-time best of 11th.

A heavy defeat of more than 15 points would leave Warren Gatland’s beleaguered team just two-thirds of a point better off than Japan in 13th and in danger of slipping out of the second band of seeds for the Rugby World Cup 2027 draw.

One stat that Wales can take comfort from is that Italy have never won a second-round game in the 25-year history of the Six Nations.

Meanwhile, Italy can’t improve on 10th place this weekend as there aren’t enough points on offer for a win over Wales for them to catch Fiji in ninth. And Italy will only surrender 10th place to Wales if they suffer a defeat of more than 15 points.

England’s match against France is the second of the two Saturday kick-offs and both teams have an opportunity to improve their position in the rankings.

France will move up to third and become the highest-ranked European team if they win and Ireland lose against Scotland on Sunday, as long as the winning margin in one of the fixtures is at least 16 points.

England will leapfrog Scotland if they win ‘Le Crunch’ and Scotland lose. The same outcome applies if an emphatic England victory of more than 15 points is followed by a draw at Murrayfield.

If Scotland snap their 10-game losing run against Ireland they will move above Argentina and equal their record high of fifth in the rankings.

Ireland will drop below New Zealand to third if they do not come away from Murrayfield with a victory and they could fall as low as fourth if things go badly for them in Edinburgh.

But the reigning Six Nations champions will cut South Africa’s advantage at the top of the rankings to 1.13 points if they continue their dominant record in the fixture, which dates back eight years, and beat Scotland by more than 15 points.

World Rugby Rankings – top 12

1. South Africa (92.78)
2. Ireland (90.78)
3. New Zealand (90.36)
4. France (88.51)
5. Argentina (84.97)
6. Scotland (83.57)
7. England (82.31)
8. Australia (81.52)
9. Fiji (80.07)
10. Italy (78.41)
11. Wales (74.01)
12. Georgia (73.85)