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The first 48 unmissable hours of the Rugby World Cup

(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

If there is one thing to be grateful for as the countdown to the Rugby World Cup moves from days to hours this week, it’s the fascinating and potentially decisive opening weekend that the schedule has delivered.

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As fixture lists go, there are few more appetising than the one offered up by the first three days of the tournament in Japan, with pools capable of being decided right from the first game. There will be no room for error, with all four pools entertaining possibly climactic matches within the first 48 hours of the competition.

In all honesty, you could not have drawn it up any better and it all starts with the hosts, Japan, taking on Russia in Tokyo on Friday.

In terms of on-field considerations, it’s not the most glamourous to ever start a Rugby World Cup, but tournaments, in terms of atmosphere, excitement and national buy-in, can live and die on the form of the host nation. In Russia, Japan have a relatively easy match-up to get their campaign underway with and, on paper, Jamie Joseph’s side should put away Russia with ease, potentially racking up a bit of a score as they go.

No one should begrudge the hosts a favourable contest to start the tournament and if it helps them pick up form and confidence going into their matches with Ireland, Samoa and Scotland, then the Rugby World Cup will be all the better for it, despite not being the ‘headliner’ that some would want for the opener.

The next game on the slate is Fiji versus Australia in Sapporo and this can be circled as a major upset alert. Fiji know that, along with Japan, they are carrying the flag for tier two nations at this tournament and they will also know that if they want to make the quarter-finals, they will need to knock off one of either Australia or Wales, whilst also avoiding the significant banana skin that is Georgia.

Continue reading below…

Watch: Rugby World Cup city guide – Sapporo

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Fiji’s contests with Wales and Georgia, who both play a much tighter brand of rugby, will be fascinating chess matches in their own right, but in Australia they believe they have an opponent who won’t be afraid to open the game up and adopt an ambitious and attacking approach. Not only does this provide neutrals with at least a shot of seeing an upset, it also should deliver a compelling and open match, with both teams eager to lay down an early marker.

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If Fiji were to win, they suddenly look very much like quarter-finalists, irrespective of how they then go against Wales at the end of the group stage.

From there the action returns to Tokyo, where the potentially decisive meeting between France and Argentina in Pool C is set to unfurl. If we take form over the entire Rugby World Cup cycle into the equation and England’s recent results against both of these nations, Eddie Jones’ side would look to be favourites to top the pool, possibly making this a winner-takes-all clash for qualification.

It’s an underrated rivalry in the English-speaking rugby world, with the two sides taking six wins apiece from their last 12 games against one another and whilst their players have looked good in club jerseys of late, their overall international form has been less than impressive, with France sitting at 8th and Argentina at 11th in World Rugby’s global rankings.

Rugby World Cup opening weekend
The Jaguares’ domestic form has not yet translated into international rugby. (Photo by Marcelo Endelli/Getty Images)
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Unless either nation can upset England and keep things tight in the top three spots in the pool, this Tokyo match-up could see Pool C decided less than 24 hours into the tournament.

Action on Saturday is concluded with the stellar contest between New Zealand and South Africa in what is one of, if not rugby’s greatest international rivalry. The two nations have shared scalps in recent years as the Springboks’ resurgence has picked up speed and barring an unlikely upset by Italy, they will be the two teams to qualify from Pool B.

This is simply a match to decide who will finish top of the group and then face the theoretically more appealing quarter-final. Top the group and you’re likely facing Japan or Scotland, come runner up and you’re probably going head-to-head with Ireland. Although Ireland’s pre-Rugby World Cup form wasn’t the most scintillating, they are still a threat to go all the way in this tournament and, with all due respect, most nations would prefer their chances against Japan or Scotland first up in the knockout rounds.

If you’re still down on the chances of the northern hemisphere teams in this tournament, too, then this is a very possible dress rehearsal for a final between these two southern hemisphere heavyweights, with the draw in the knockout rounds set to keep them apart until the final, should both nations make it through the quarter- and semi-finals.

Sunday doesn’t offer quite the same thrills, spills and dramatic consequences as Saturday, with Italy versus Namibia and England versus Tonga either not likely to impact on qualification or are on paper somewhat predictable, but the contest between Ireland and Scotland in Yokohama City is another Test with bona fide colossal repercussions.

Continue reading below…

Watch: Rugby World Cup stadium guide – Yokohama

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For Ireland, there’s some leeway here, with them facing Japan six days later. It’s not ideal, especially with Japan getting two extra days of rest and training and the build-up to it, but it’s manageable for Joe Schmidt and his side. As for Scotland, their contest with Japan comes at the end of the pool, just four days after they play Russia, in what is likely to be a physical, if not overly competitive, contest. Conversely, Japan get a full 10 days between their game with Samoa and the Scotland Test.

The Brave Blossoms will have had that game circled on their calendars for a long time now and with Samoa looking short of being consistently competitive at the highest level, this is the prime opportunity for a tier two nation to make the knockouts next month. Japan have a balanced squad and game plan and they have encouraging depth in two or three positions, should injuries come calling.

Of course, if Scotland were to win that opening encounter in Yokohama, then the pressure is immediately flipped on to Ireland, whose Rugby World Cup dreams could be shattered just six days later when they take on Japan in Shizuoka.

From the Pool B contest between the All Blacks and the Springboks that will lay out the knockout scenarios, to the “must-win” matches involving France and Argentina and Ireland and Scotland, and from the hosts looking to put down a marker on Friday night to the potential fireworks of Australia versus Fiji, little more could have been asked of the opening weekend.

As 48-hour periods of rugby go, this is looking set to be the most exciting and compelling that we will see before the semi-finals roll around in October.

Watch: Rugby World Cup stadium guide – Shizuoka

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J
John 1 hour ago
Super Rugby draw heavily favours NZ sides but they can't win in Australia

Cheers for the comment HHT!


I think your point on unfair draw and mine, which in essence is about an unfair draw actually aid each other for a rather strong argument that the draw needs to be looked at.


I think this is a case of two things can be true at once.


I have chosen in around 1000 words to explore this particular issue with the draw I have identified.


Your point, with having the NZ teams playing each other twice on some occassions while others in Aus not is also not fair.


But with the way the table looks currently, would the NZ sides all be in the top six if the draw had been done more in line with my and your point?


For instance, 4 of the 6 Aus wins against NZ sides have come against the Highlanders, 3 in Aus, 1 in NZ.


The Landers have beaten the Blues and lost to the Canes by 2 points, those are their only two NZ games to date and they play the Chiefs this weekend. Their 3 games against the Aussie sides in Australia compared to the Blues 1 is a massive disadvantage because travel takes it’s toll.


Then looking at your example the Blues, they have the toughest season of any side by far but I would also argue that the limited travel is a massive help in preparation, recovery etc. But their draw must be looked at, any side would suffer with a draw like that.


Although I am not suggesting the Aus sides are better than the NZ sides overall, the current ledger and table set up suggests the rift is not as big currently as the underlying assertion to your argument suggests.


More will absolutley be revealed over the coming rounds as the strength of the two franchises.

9 Go to comments
J
JW 1 hour ago
'We offered him a three-year deal': Hurricanes priced out of U20 star

I see I’m not getting my point across.

If the plan from his family for him was to make more cash

Lets play along with you presumption these “shackles” existed then. Logically, as I’ve already tried to show, that makes no sense, but I’ll try to use it to show what I mean by saying/answering.. they would have got more cash by playing hard-to-get with the French clubs by returning to New Zealand and signing with the Hurricanes. Now you should see returning to NZ is not relevant to the discussion, it is also a euphemism, as he would already be (have returned) when he first decided to stay. His family would know that signing a development contract for the Hurricanes in no way legally affects his ability to take an offer in France.


Now, that wasn’t what I was saying happened, but if you can now follow that thread of logic, I’m saying its because this situation happened, signing for Toulon just months later, that you are wrong to think “returning to New Zealand” must mean he wasn’t “shackled”.


Actually, I’m not saying that he was “shackled”, the article is saying that. That is how you would read the words “His parents see that as the route they want their son to take, and we support that.” and “but it’s probably a slightly different package to what Toulon can offer” here, and I’m pretty sure in most English speaking places GD.


Of course without those statements I agree that it is very possible he’s grown, changed his mind from wanting to develop here with players and coaches he’s comfortable/friends with, to where he wants to take on the challenge of a rich and prestigious club like Toulon. A few months is perhaps enough time to people he trusts to open him up to that sort of environment even, but that’s simply not the message we go, is it? I also think you maybe have an over defense stance about thinking intrinsically or literally about money meaning he was thrown lots of dollars? It might be far from the case, but the monetary value of been given a home and jobs for the family, all the bells and whistles a wealthy club can provide etc is far removed from the mentality he’d currently be in of “cleaning the sheds” after a game. Even without real money just the life style they got given when there last would no doubt be enough to change the mind of some grown up living day to day off your own sustenance/plantation or like that they would have had.

11 Go to comments
J
JW 3 hours ago
Ex-All Black Richie Mo’unga teases return to ‘Test match setting’ in 2025

They didn’t really let him go though did they. He was gone, already signed to leave some 18 months earlier. Not much they could do.


Definitely a shame though, hence why I criticize the coaching for not unlocking that composure earlier. We would have seen he was definitely the player we need to take us through that WC, and the next, before the contract talks started. After, was too late. Conversely, if he had of continued to play the way he had been when he signed to go to Japan, I have no doubt Damien McKenzie would have been the player to lead us in 23’, and then we very likely would have won that Final. I’m not so sure Dmac would hve been good enough to get us past Ireland, Richie definitely deserves a lot of credit for simply getting us to the Final.


But that was all my message to HHT was. That class, or talent in this case, is permeant, and games like Ireland showed he did definitely had that. Obviously Richie’s got a large responsibility in realizing it sooner too, but in terms of not displaying it when it counts in 2019 or 2023, I reckon that’s on the coachs more than a lack of talent on his part, and it’s the same shame when it comes to your sentiment. If he was at the point were he could have saved out bacon against Ireland in 2022, it might not have been too late for NZR to have come in with a big contract offer. The bigger problem now is that Razor is only exasperating that problem with this new group. We now clearly know he was a big factor in Richie taking so long, because he’s replicating the same problems with the current batch. Thankfully NZR had no other option but to offer a big contract to secure Dmac this time though, regardless of how he must have felt after being treated like that.

8 Go to comments
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