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The gnawing doubt at the heart of the Springboks selection policy
Every sports fan inevitably reaches a tipping point. It doesn’t happen all at once. First it’s a trickle, then it’s a deluge. Suddenly you’re submerged in a sea of inescapable truth. You blink your eyes open as you come up for air and realise that all the players representing your team are younger than you.
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If you’re a fan of the Springboks and still in your 20s, you’re in luck. No other side with a realistic shot at winning the World Cup in two months’ time has more men in their 30s than South Africa. There are older geezers – in sporting terms at least – knocking about in other squads. Johnny Sexton is 38. Argentina have a pair of 38-year-old front-rowers in Agustin Creevy and Franscisco Gomez Kodela. But with 19 members currently on their third decade around the sun, Jacques Nienaber’s outfit are older than most.
The reasons behind this are multifaceted. Nienaber inherited a core group from his predecessor and mentor, Rassie Erasmus, that had arguably not yet reached its peak. Four years ago the likes of Siya Kolisi, Eben Etzebeth, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Frans Malherbe, Damian de Allende and a clutch of other key figures were in their late-20s and beginning to ascend the apex of their careers.
What’s more, Nienaber, either through a reluctance to change things up or a lack of options elsewhere, has largely stuck with the same group that won the World Cup in Japan. In fact, if everyone was fit, Nienaber could conceivably field 21 of the 23 players that beat England in Yokohama for the opening game of his team’s title defence and call it his best team. All he’d have to do is replace the now-retired duo of Tendai Mtawarira at loosehead prop and Francois Steyn on the bench.
None of this is news to anyone who has been paying attention but it is remarkable nonetheless and is perhaps not receiving the appropriate attention it deserves. What’s more, the relatively unchanged make-up of the Springboks squad can either be used as a stick to beat Nienaber – who might be painted as conservative by his critics – or as proof that Erasmus’ heir is adept at conserving a legacy and a match-winning game-plan.
There is of course a precedent for this. The Springboks are looking to do something that only the great All Blacks side under Steve Hansen achieved and that is defending a World Cup crown. Four years on from shaking the monkey off their back by squeezing past France in 2011, Richie McCaw skippered a team bursting with experience. Four of the 31-strong group that arrived in England had more than 100 caps to their name and Ma’a Nonu would join them by the time they trounced Australia in Twickenham. However, that squad only had 11 players in their 30s and Keven Mealamu was the oldest at 36.
And so one has to ask, has Nienaber allowed the Springboks to grow old under his watch? Some supporters might baulk at what may appear to be a snide chide lobbed from the safety of a laptop, but it’s worth a wonder. The recent form of Bongi Mbnomabi (32), Faf de Klerk (31) and Makazole Mapimpi (33) has been questioned by pundits online and on screen. The fitness of Siya Kolisi (32) is a serious concern. Champions all of them, and world class on their day. But some alarm bells are worth sounding even if they’re later dismissed as annoying fire-drills.
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The truth is very few instrumental Springboks have yet to reach their best years and too many must look in the rearview mirror to see their own. Malcolm Marx is unquestionably a force that continues to rise. Important props and wingers could be described in such terms. Everywhere else though, gnarled veterans lead the vanguard. That isn’t necessarily a problem. Not when those grizzled and greying warhorses continue to excel.
At the heart of this is Duane Vermeulen and Willie le Roux, who both start this weekend against Argentina. Both have had their share of criticism – the former dismissed as too old and the latter regularly disregarded for his supposed weaknesses – but both continue to confound logic and time.
Vermeulen, at 37, is the oldest member of the group though he’s no mascot. The Springboks have used ageing players who are good around the camp to help inject bonhomie into World Cup campaigns. Bobby Skinsstad performed this role in 2007 while Schalk Brits set a benchmark for the job in 2019.
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Vermeulen’s own story, one that includes the premature death of a parent and numerous injury setbacks, has proved a lightning rod for players and supporters who believe in the mythology of the Springboks. But, more importantly. he has continued to have an impact at the elite level 12 years on and could still challenge Jasper Wiese for first dibs on the No. 8 jersey.
Le Roux has less worries concerning his position in the team. No other Springbok player this past cycle has shown anywhere near the game management and tactical nous displayed by the 33-year-old fullback. Despite a litany of reasons touted by detractors – from an apparent lack of bravery and physicality, to his insecurity under the high ball – he remains the working brain in the backline. You get the full picture when you watch him live because his magic is not always captured by the four walls of a TV camera. Even without the ball he is dictating the direction of an attack or pulling teammates into position. It’s no wonder he has assisted more tries than any other South African on a Test pitch.
Le Roux and Vermeulen will play their last Test on home soil this Saturday against Argentina. They deserve a hero’s send-off in Johannesburg. Not that they’ll be thinking of that. This match against the Pumas will simply be a launchpad for their final push over the next six weeks.
There is enough succession planning that I am not too concerned post WC.
1) Ox
2) Marx
3) Du toit
4) Eben/RG
5)Lood
6) Van Staden
7) JL du Plessis
8) Wiese
9)Hendrickse
10) libbok
11) Arendse
12) Esthethuizen
13) AM
14) Moodie
15) Willemse
Those guys all have a fair bit of experience now and are likely to be around for at least 2 years post WC
When England won the WC in 2003 their squad had been labelled as "Dad's army" because of its average age.
Age In and of itself is no impediment to winning a WC, the problem will more than likely manifest itself post the WC when SA will lose a large tranche of ageing players in one go.
If the succession plan isn't in place, they could struggle in the next WC cycle!!
It's an experienced team, with an average age in the squad of around 29 years and tons of caps. Some coaches believe in experience, so fair play.
What's the point of the discussion? That they are too old to be competitive in the 2023 RWC? Maybe. We will see. But in the age of real time telemetry the coaches are tracking a lot of data about fitness and stamina. Don't hold you breath if you are waiting for them to tire in the game. If that were a big risk the coaches would have been starting the younger players in the wider squad.
The stated goal for the depth chart is three in each position, including two experienced options and an up and coming player. Count the number of players picked in the last year, and analyze their positions and you will see that there has been a structured and intentional program to build that depth. Of course to build that three per position model they have been monitoring and working with a much wider group.
So what about the 2027 RWC? There are bokphobes out there declaring that there will be a post 2023 crisis and a need for an immediate reboot of the whole program, to bring in youngsters and start again. That's just not consistent with the facts.
The following team of current Boks could easily be the starting 15 in 2027, though more likely the will form the core and we will see more youngsters coming through over the next couple of years:
Outside backs:
Willemse, Moodie, Arendse
Centers:
Esterhuizen, Kriel
Halfbacks:
Williams/Hendrickse/H Jantjies, Libbok
Back Row:
Roos, Wiese/Du Preez, Van Staden
Second row:
Snyman, Kleyn
Front row:
Du Toit, Dweba, Nche
No one thinks that this will be the starting 15 in four years time, but any of these players is a potential starter in 2027. Furthermore, of those that are unlikely to be around for the 2027 RWC, many of them can continue for a couple of years of transition, as needed.
The Springboks will need renewal, and maybe more than most teams, but it's not a crisis or a reboot. The squad is built for continuity, and if Nienanber is allowed to do it then we will see him stick with the plan, layering in more youngsters as some of the more experienced players move on.
The bok coaches believe in experience and continuity. I have no doubt that we will continue to see both. They already have their eyes on the next wave of Boks.
I've been saying this for a long time, and the resistance of saffas to accepting the facts about their team has been quite astounding.
South Africa might not do too badly this year (by which I mean they will probably make it out of their group), but 2024 onwards things are going to get really painful.
The next four year cycle will require a level of squad turnover on a par with what France and Italy have done this time around, with the difference being that where France and Italy are building golden generations, South Africa won't be.