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The Ireland Scotland scoreline that'd knock South Africa out of World Cup
By Ian Cameron
The permutations of Pool B of the Rugby World Cup have been a major discussion point, with all three of Ireland, South Africa and Scotland still in the race to make the quarter-finals with the final weekend of pool matches approaching.
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South Africa beat Tonga 49-18 last night in Marseille, their final game of the pool stages, but contrary to what some fans think, the Springboks’ fate still lies in the hands of Scotland and Ireland, who both obviously have a game in hand.
While the Boks currently occupy top spot in Pool B with 15 points, Ireland need just one point to draw even with the reigning champs, while Scotland need a bonus win to arrive on 15 points.
What Ireland need
Ireland needs to avoid defeat to Scotland to guarantee qualification as the pool winners. A draw would take them to 16, while a four-point win would take them to 18 and a try bonus point win would take them to 19. A losing bonus point would also almost certainly be enough to bag Ireland a quarter-final spot. However, a losing bonus while denying Scotland a 4-try bonus point would be enough. More on that in a minute.
What Scotland need
Scotland needs to beat Ireland and deny Ireland a bonus point, to knock Andy Farrell’s side out of the tournament outright, as if both are on 14, the Scots win on head to head regardless of points difference, with the Boks going through as group winners on 15. Scotland will be desperate to deny Ireland a losing bonus point.
All tied on fifteen
Things get interesting if all teams end up with fifteen points on the standings.
If all three teams are tied at the end of pool stages, the team with the best points difference goes through. Teams placed second and third then come down to their head-to-head, or in the case of a draw between both sides, it goes back to points difference.
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Going into the weekend Ireland are on +122, the Boks have +117 points, while the Scots have +97.
Rugby World Cup
Pool A
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
France
3
3
0
0
13
2
New Zealand
3
2
1
0
10
3
Italy
3
2
1
0
10
4
Uruguay
3
1
2
0
5
5
Namibia
4
0
4
0
0
Pool B
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
South Africa
4
3
1
0
15
2
Ireland
3
3
0
0
14
3
Scotland
3
2
1
0
10
4
Tonga
3
0
3
0
0
5
Romania
3
0
3
0
0
Pool C
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
Wales
3
3
0
0
14
2
Australia
4
2
2
0
11
3
Fiji
3
2
1
0
10
4
Georgia
3
0
2
1
3
5
Portugal
3
0
2
1
2
Pool D
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
England
3
3
0
0
14
2
Argentina
3
2
1
0
9
3
Japan
3
2
1
0
9
4
Samoa
3
1
2
0
6
5
Chile
4
0
4
0
0
What the Springboks want
The ideal South African scenario is Scotland beating Ireland and denying Andy Farrell’s men a losing bonus point, as it would see the Boks go through as group winners. If Ireland lost to Scotland by seven points or less and the Scots don’t get a bonus point, the Springboks would go through as pool runners up, with Ireland going through as pool winners on head to heads. If Ireland avoids defeat, South Africa also goes through to the quarters as pool runners-up.
What the Springboks don’t want
The nightmare scoreline for South Africa goes like this: if Scotland beat Ireland by 21 points or more with a four-try bonus and Ireland get a four-try bonus point in defeat, then South Africa will be knocked out of the Rugby World Cup. Scotland would go through as pool winners, while due to their head-to-head loss with Ireland and a points difference lower than Scotland, the Boks would be eliminated.
According to the match-fixing conspiracy theories doing the rounds on the internet, Ireland and Scotland could agree to this result, as it’s the one scenario that would see them both qualify. What’s in it for Ireland? They guarantee that they won’t have to face the Springboks again at the tournament.
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This makes very little sense, as it would see Ireland playing France, likely led by Dupont, in the quarter-finals.
What is clear is that Pool B – aka the Pool of Death – has lived up to its billing and fans of all three teams will be left to chew their nails going into the final weekend of matches.
Great. I think I got it, but just in case, tell me the whole thing again. I wasn't listening.
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The idea that Ireland and Scotland under their current management teams of Farrells amd Townsend would try to engineer a result is totally ludicrous and is absolutely no way going to happen. Cut the bullshit and just enjoy the match. Winners go through, it'll be a cracker!!
Because?
Yawn..... Cmon Scotland!!!! ONE TIME !!!
The lime light is not on the all blacks, seemingly out of contention. Can they use this to their advantage or are they genuinely on a bit of a low ebb.
Low ebb.
We'll see, worse teams then this Allblacks team have won the world cup or made the final. They carry a captain who isn't good enough to be cozy pick on merit but he's not terrible and they are good enough to win it with a bit of luck
Unintended consequences, Ireland will have to go out and try win, they can't afford to try and get an "engineered" score that will favour them in play-offs, if Scotland score four tries they may score seven. If Scotland within seven point bonus point loss the could score last minute try and win. Too much that can go wrong. Scotland know they have to score with bonus point and can't take foot off the gas if they in the lead to get favourable result for Ireland. Think its going to be a great game, tactics from both teams going to interesting to watch.
Agree totally. Scotland know they have to come out swinging from the first whistle which I'm sure Ireland would expect. IRE V SA was a belter but basically two physical teams cancelling each other out. I think this could be a very, very different game. The JAP v SCO final pool game was a stormer in the last world cup and a similar set up, with the result potentially hitting 3 teams. They'll both go blazing for a win, can't wait.
The real question is what do Ireland want? if they score 4 tries they could let the Scots get their bonus and knock South Africa out but then they will play France. If you finish top of the pool the Scots don't go through and you face NZ but SA stays in. I think Ireland will be motivated to finish top of the pool so they play NZ. SA will probably get knocked out by France anyway I dont think they fear SA or France to be honest so I dont see Ireland doing anything other than going out to win this game
1. If Scotland score 4 tries (if they want too);
2. Let Ireland “get their bonus point”;
3. “Think Ireland will be motivated to win the pool”;
4. Don’t see anything other than “Ireland going out to win the game”.
Wow. Genius.
Just the “SA probably getting knocked out” part was utterly ridiculous.
The rest - solid gold!
Why don't you put a bet on France knocking out the Boks, seeing as it's probable?
It's also basically our only certain way of qualification. I'd happily take the ugliest single point win in history.
If Ireland gets a red card early in the game, all score line scenarios will be possible.
If not, SA beats France and England, Ireland beats NZ and Wales.
We will meet again.
SA wil lose to France. You got knocked out when you lost to Ireland.
Indeed true (re card, anyway!), but how likely is it, given Ireland have not picked up a red card since the 2021 6N and POM's yellow was the first since about the same time?
Also Nick Berry is the ref, think he may have a score to settle with Boks.........
I can see Rassie getting himself another ban if it doesn't fall their way.
To illustrate how absurd the system is, if both teams have scored 4 tries it would be better for Ireland to lose by 21 points or more than to lose by anywhere between 6 and 19 points. So what will Ireland do if they both have 4 tries and they are losing by 18 with a minute to go? It will obviously favour them to allow Scotland to score. The absurdity arises by having two different methods to sort the winner of three teams that are tied and the second and third finishers. World Rugby did not think of this scenario. All three teams should be sorted by points difference if there is a three way tie.
Ireland can lose and go home. They can also lose and go through.
Amazeballs.
It's only an issue because the final pool matches aren't all played at the same time. If SA v TON and IRE v SCO was played at the same time, no team would know what they need beyond trying to just win the game. I think it strengthens the calls for a return to a 16 team tournament.
Agree. Points difference should have been the deciding factor before a head to head in match point ties.
Tin foil hats all round obviously. The more people aware of a conspiracy the more likely it'll be a disaster. Is JFK the ref?
Bigfoot.
To knock out South Africa both Scotland and Ireland need 4 tries each, then Scotland need to beat Ireland with a 21 point difference. So here’s 1 scenario: Ireland gets their 4 tries but miss all their conversions. Scotland get 5 tries w conversions and 2 penalties. Final score: 20-41. Scotland and Ireland are through to QF and SA are out.
Did you use a calculator to work that out or just your smart Brain?
What the Bokke do not want, is to play the All Blacks in the quarter finals
Fucken agreed.
Mostly because it would be Lekker to have a SH final. Have all these 6N teams go home with their fans.
If Ireland eat apples for six weeks and Scotland drink 3 shots of whisky and throw a haggis into South Africas locker room, then Greece go through on points difference and Saudi Arabia win the group due to being hotter on average than the others. JUST DOING THIS IN CAPS FOR ALL THE IRANIANS WHO DONT GET IT.
Assuming they are all tied at 15 and Scotland wins by 21. Scotland wins pool by pt difference. Then they go back to the first tie breaker criteria (head to head) to determine the runner up. Since Ireland beat SA, Ireland is #2. Tournament Rule #3, second to last paragraph.
Are the whincing about this being “unethical” and “dangerous” yet?
Interesting scenario. It's Ireland against Scotland and the score is 46-30 in Scotland's favour, 5 minutes left in the match. Both teams already on bonus points. If game finishes on 46-30, Scotland and SA go through (SA best PD). But, if Scotland were to score another try, that would give them best PD and Scotland and Ireland go through. What would Ireland (or any team) do in such a scenario (big temptation to give away the try)? I know the chances are almost zero for this to happen, but still crazy that the rules allow for such a possibility.
Couldn’t agree more WR has again allowed for a farcical outcome where both teams can manipulate the score and if I was in Ireland shoes after four tries they can then totally through the match and knock SA out. This should never be allowed to happen or even be possible.
Ireland are unbeaten so still have their fate in their own hands. Scotland haven't played all their fixtures so are still in it. SA finished on 3 wins and 3 bonus PTS but it's potentially out of their hands. I think it's enthralling, anything can still happen!
OK I'M WIRING THIS IN CAPS SO SOME OF THE LOST PEOPLE GET IT.
IF 2 TEAMS ARE EVEN THE TEAM THAT WON THEIR HEAD TO HEAD PASSES.
IF 3 TEAMS ARE EVEN YOU CAN'T POSSIBLY HAVE ONE TEAM PASS ON POINTS DIFF AND THE OTHER BECAUSE THEY WON THE HEAD TO HEAD. IF 3 TEAMS FINISH ON 15 IT COMES PURELY DOWN TO POINTS DIFF.
HOPE THAT'S CLEAR FOR EVERYONE NOW.
SO IRELAND CAN LOSE AND GO HOME AND THEY CAN LOSE AND GO THROUGH?
HAVE I GOT THAT CLEAR?
DOES THAY MAKE ANY SENSE TO YOU?
NOTED
I have just been told this is indeed what happens points diff for first and head to head for second seams pretty stupid to me.
YOU ARE WRONG, IS THAT CLEAR???
That's not correct. Points difference doesn't decide 1st, 2nd and 3rd. It decides the pool winner as the first tie break (head to head) can't narrow it. All 3 are tied. The remaining 2 are then decided by the first tie breaker as there was a winner between IRE v SA. Points difference would apply if that fixture was drawn. IRE could get thumped and still put out SA with a try bonus point. There are plenty of different variations still in play.
This is wrong. South Africa in 15,Ireland 14, Scotland on 10. If Scotland get a win without a bonus point BUT deny Ireland a losing bonus point they'll both be on 14. In that scenario it comes down to who won the head to head. This world cup has seen continuous rubbish spouted by mediocre journalists, even worse the"hindsight" articles where it's easy to be an expert. Good articles are far and few between.
In that scenario you paint, Ireland is sent packing. Boks end top of the table and Scotland 2nd. Which no Bok fan wants, ABs are peaking at the right time (business end of the comp). As a Bok supporter I will much rather have Ireland playing ABs and Boks against France. ABs finally have some grunt and another L/O option in Frizzell and Lomax looking the part again. I don't want to play the ABs in the quarters, so I will be wearing green on Saturday (light green though this time).
Need to consult Duckworth and Lewis. Can just see the medics, Waterboys and everyone else running onto field with instructions from the coaching staff.
On the other hand I can't see Scotland beating Ireland. So all this conjecture unnecessary.
Who thinks up this crap? Anyone who seriously thinks that two venerable rugby nations like Scotland and Ireland would sink to such depths is several different colours of moron.
But hey, clicks, y'know ...
I wouldn’t put it past them to contrive to knock SA out.
Pretty pathetic if you have to put your hopes in cards to win a game.
I'm Irish Eric!!! Best to cover all bases. Hope for the best, plan for the worst type thing?