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The odd stat that all World Cup quarter-final losers had in common

Reda Wardi #17 of Team France loses the ball during the money time with Faf De Klerk #21 of Team South Africa during the Rugby World Cup France 2023 Quarter Final match between France and South Africa at Stade de France on October 15, 2023 in Paris, France. (Photo by Xavier Laine/Getty Images)

Each of the four Rugby World Cup quarter-finals provided absorbing and close contests as the top four sides clashed on one side and the rest on the other of the draw.

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Ireland versus New Zealand and South Africa versus France have gone down as the best quarter-finals of all time, with a combined five points deciding the two epic contests.

However, all of the losers over the weekend had one thing in common. X user Just Doc noted that the team with the most handling errors lost all four contests.

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New Zealand were able to overcome two yellow cards and 20 minutes of being down a man in part due to their execution levels, only making one handling error in the entire contest.

Ireland and France were plagued with uncharacteristic and unforced dropped balls at times.

Ireland No 8 Caelan Doris spilling a goal line drop out after Ronan Kelleher was held up over the line was one crucial turning point, while France prop Cyril Baille tried to pick up and throw a wayward pass from Antoine Dupont that ended in a fastbreak try to Cheslin Kolbe.

While likely a coincidence, errors in knockout games can come with big momentum swings that decide contests with fine margins.

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Whilst the two most successful World Cup nations making the semi-finals might not surprise anyone, analyst Simon Gleave detailed the historic nature of the quarter-final results on X.

Three of the top five most winningest sides over the cycle making the semi-finals wasn’t new, however this was the first time that the top two nations in win percentage failed to make it into the semi-finals.

Ireland and France made history by bowing out despite being the most successful sides between World Cups.

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Ireland’s 28-24 loss to the All Blacks created unwanted history on the level of the 2007 All Blacks who were stunned by France 20-18 in the quarter-finals.

Those two teams are the only teams to not make the semi-finals after holding the highest win rate against the other top nine countries.

Argentina, who won just eight of 30 Tests over the four-year period, became the seventh side in World Cup history to make the semi-finals after winning less than 50 per cent of their games.

It is the third time Los Pumas have done so, adding 2023 to their list of making the top four with less than a 50 per cent winning rate along with 2007 and 2015.

England also joined them as the eighth side in history after beating Fiji to qualify after registering 14 wins from 30 Tests over the cycle.

Argentina and England can take inspiration from the 2019 Springboks who are also on the list, who managed to win the entire tournament despite winning less than half of their games during the cycle.

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Comments

7 Comments
C
CuzzyG 431 days ago

All the losers from QFs scored less points 🤣🤣🤣✌️😁

B
Bob Marler 431 days ago

Oh. I thought the refs were the reason…?

Handling errors? Who knew.

m
mjp89 431 days ago

All the losers scored fewer points than their opponents. I think that was the difference maker in the end.

P
Poe 431 days ago

Trick things stats
.

J
Jon 431 days ago

The “most winningest”, eh?

F
Flankly 431 days ago

And, in aggregate, the QF winners got more yellow cards than the losers.

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JW 6 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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