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The odd stat that all World Cup quarter-final losers had in common
By Kim Ekin
Each of the four Rugby World Cup quarter-finals provided absorbing and close contests as the top four sides clashed on one side and the rest on the other of the draw.
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Ireland versus New Zealand and South Africa versus France have gone down as the best quarter-finals of all time, with a combined five points deciding the two epic contests.
However, all of the losers over the weekend had one thing in common. X user Just Doc noted that the team with the most handling errors lost all four contests.
Handling errors made in the #RWC2023 Quarter-Finals:
š«š· 11
šæš¦ 8šØš® 8
š³šæ 1š«šÆ 8
š“ó §ó ¢ó „ó ®ó §ó æ 3š“ó §ó ¢ó ·ó ¬ó ³ó æ 12
š¦š· 10ā Just Doc ššÆ (@Doc_Torio) October 16, 2023
New Zealand were able to overcome two yellow cards and 20 minutes of being down a man in part due to their execution levels, only making one handling error in the entire contest.
Ireland and France were plagued with uncharacteristic and unforced dropped balls at times.
Ireland No 8 Caelan Doris spilling a goal line drop out after Ronan Kelleher was held up over the line was one crucial turning point, while France prop Cyril Baille tried to pick up and throw a wayward pass from Antoine Dupont that ended in a fastbreak try to Cheslin Kolbe.
While likely a coincidence, errors in knockout games can come with big momentum swings that decide contests with fine margins.
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Whilst the two most successful World Cup nations making the semi-finals might not surprise anyone, analyst Simon Gleave detailed the historic nature of the quarter-final results on X.
Three of the top five most winningest sides over the cycle making the semi-finals wasnāt new, however this was the first time that the top two nations in win percentage failed to make it into the semi-finals.
Ireland and France made history by bowing out despite being the most successful sides between World Cups.
As usual, 3 of the top-5 teams in the World Cup cycle have reached the #RugbyWorldCup semi-finals. It only didn't happen in 2007.
However, BOTH of the top-2 have failed to reach the semis for the first time in the pro-era.#RWC2023 #NZL #RSA #ENG #ARG pic.twitter.com/ySmODgekfI
ā Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) October 16, 2023
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Irelandās 28-24 loss to the All Blacks created unwanted history on the level of the 2007 All Blacks who were stunned by France 20-18 in the quarter-finals.
Those two teams are the only teams to not make the semi-finals after holding the highest win rate against the other top nine countries.
āļøIreland are only the 2nd team to exit a #RugbyWorldCup at the quarter-final stage after entering with the highest win percentage against the top-9 since the previous World Cup.
š³šæNew Zealand (2007) is the other.
Only 3 of the pro-era World Cups have been won by the #1 team.
ā Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) October 15, 2023
Argentina, who won just eight of 30 Tests over the four-year period, became the seventh side in World Cup history to make the semi-finals after winning less than 50 per cent of their games.
It is the third time Los Pumas have done so, adding 2023 to their list of making the top four with less than a 50 per cent winning rate along with 2007 and 2015.
England also joined them as the eighth side in history after beating Fiji to qualify after registering 14 wins from 30 Tests over the cycle.
ALL pro-era #RugbyWorldCup semi-finalists with less than a 50% win rate against š¦š·š¦šŗš“ó §ó ¢ó „ó ®ó §ó æš«š·āļøš³šæš“ó §ó ¢ó ³ó £ó “ó æšæš¦š“ó §ó ¢ó ·ó ¬ó ³ó æ in the World Cup cycle:
š«š·France 2003
š¦š·Argentina 2007
š“ó §ó ¢ó „ó ®ó §ó æEngland 2007
š“ó §ó ¢ó ·ó ¬ó ³ó æWales 2011
š¦š·Argentina 2015
šæš¦South Africa 2019
š¦š·Argentina 2023
The winners of š“ó §ó ¢ó „ó ®ó §ó æEngland v š«šÆFiji 2023ā Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) October 15, 2023
Argentina and England can take inspiration from the 2019 Springboks who are also on the list, who managed to win the entire tournament despite winning less than half of their games during the cycle.
šæš¦South Africa (2019) is the only pro-era #RugbyWorldCup winner which was not ranked in the top-3 win percentages against the current Six Nations and Rugby Championship teams (bar Italy) in the 4 years going into the World Cup.
This year's top-3
āļøIreland
š«š·France
š¦šŗNew Zealandā Simon Gleave (@SimonGleave) October 15, 2023
All the losers from QFs scored less points š¤£š¤£š¤£āļøš
Oh. I thought the refs were the reasonā¦?
Handling errors? Who knew.
All the losers scored fewer points than their opponents. I think that was the difference maker in the end.
Trick things stats
.
The āmost winningestā, eh?
And, in aggregate, the QF winners got more yellow cards than the losers.
Also, 75% of all teams that lost their QFs were from Europe/NH.