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The slim chance Wales have to break back into top 10

By Ian Cameron
Wales are still trying to harness Mason Grady's size and speed to best effect (Photo William West/ AFP via Getty Images)

Wales have an opportunity to break back into the top 10 of the World Rugby rankings this weekend, according to the latest ranking permutations published by World Rugby.

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In July Wales dropped out of the top ten in the official World Rugby Rankings for the first time. A 2-0 series defeat against the Wallabies this summer extended Wales’ losing run to nine Tests – one short of equalling the record sequence in 2002 and 2003 under Steve Hansen.

They are on the verge of their worst run since they began playing international rugby 143 years ago.

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Wales are currently ranked 11th but could regain their spot in the top ten. It all depends on the outcome of several matches in the Asahi Super Dry Pacific Nations Cup 2024.

For Wales to move up they need 10th-ranked Fiji to lose to the USA by more than 15 points in their semi-final match this weekend.

Fixture
Pacific Nations Cup
Fiji
22 - 3
Full-time
USA
All Stats and Data

Fiji cannot gain any additional rating points from a win due to the significant 12.35-point differential between them and the lower-ranked USA. If Fiji suffers a heavy defeat they could fall one place; allowing Warren Gatland’s side to take their position.

“Wales are clearly in a transition period, with the amount of players they have lost, are injured or unavailable,” former Wales captain Biggar told the PA news agency earlier this year. “I do think Warren is going with the mindset of building depth and exposing players with a World Cup plan.

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“And I think there were some positive signs in that Test series. I thought Ben Thomas looked quite comfortable in the number 10 shirt, Sam Costelow when he came off the bench did really well, and I thought the back-row worked incredibly hard.

“The bottom line at the minute is Wales are in a rebuilding phase, and I thought there were enough promising signs on that tour to have something to build on.

Other matches in the Pacific Nations Cup will also impact the rankings. Japan, ranked 14th, could rise to 13th if they win their semi-final against Samoa. Conversely, if 13th-ranked Samoa wins, they would leapfrog Georgia into 12th place.

If Mahonri Schwalger’s side wins by more than 15 points and Fiji loses by a similar margin, the two Pacific Island nations would be separated by just 0.13 rating points in 11th and 12th.

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The USA has a chance to rise at least two places with a win over Fiji, potentially climbing three places if the margin is greater than 15 points or if Tonga loses to Canada in the fifth-place play-off. Meanwhile, Tonga cannot move beyond their current 16th position, though a loss to Canada could see them fall as many as three places.

additional reporting PA

 

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Comments

3 Comments
T
Teddy 4 days ago

The modern eras greatest overachievers. They've maxed out the credit cards so deserve all they get.


Whipping boys at senior level, under 20s and their domestic club game is horrid. They are finished.

T
Terry24 3 days ago

I think Wales deserve a lot more respect than you are giving them. A great history with current problems. Hope they get things sorted.

One thing: they are not is finished. Not sure what country you are from but Rugby is in the national blood of Wales. They will be back.

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A
Anendra Singh 1 hour ago
Scott Robertson has mounting problems to fix for misfiring All Blacks

Okay, fair points in here. Agree Razor isn't transparent. How quickly the climate changes from one regime to another. I'm sorry but when I refer to "human values" I'm alluding to Razor prancing around like a peacock at the 2023 RWC, knowing he had had the job but going there to smirk while Fozz went about his business. What need was there of that when Razor had already got the nod?


Besides, that's why caring employers don't put their employees through that spin-dry cycle following redundancy, although Fozz would have relished the opportunity to ride the waves to redemption. He had come within a whisker. I'm guessing Fozz's contract wouldn't have allowed him to terminate employment, glory of RWC aside. Now, I'm not saying fora second that Fozz was a fine head coach because he had erred like Razor is with selections across the board.


The captaincy debacle is just that, so agree with that. More significantly for me, Barrett has the unenviable record of collecting two red cards in test rugger — the most anyone has. His 2nd test against the Boks was questionable, considering the lock hadn't carried the ball until after the 60th minute. In both Boks affairs, he was hardly visible as a leader.


DMac is a Hobson's choice. You can have a "unique" kicking game but if the others are not on the same page, is it worth anything? Player, selection, and/or head coaching issue? For me it's all 3. I've not religiously watched Super Rugby Pacific matches but I did see how the Fijian Drua had homed in on DMac at The Tron. He was rattled and even started complaining to the ref. That's where we part ways with "aggression". All pooches are ferocious behind their owner's fenced property. DMac enjoys that when he has the comfort of protection from the engine room. The pooch is only tested when it wanders outside the confines of the yard on to the street to face other mongrels. Boks were going to be the litmus test, although no home fan saw the Pumas coming. At best, a bench-minutes player.


Leon MacDonald. Well, besides debating the merits of his prowess as "attacking guru", it doesn't override one simple fact — Razor chose his stable of support coaches. Its starts and ends there. If MacD didn't slot into the equation, Razor is accountable.


Why appoint a specialist when you're not going to listen to him, especially if you have an engine-room background? Having fired him, Razor looks even more clueless now than ever with his backline, never mind attacking. Which raises the pertinent question? Which of his other favoured coaches have assumed the mantle of backline/attacking coach? (Hansen/Ellison?) If so, why is Razor not dangling them over burning coals?


"His [MacD's] way might be great for some team, maybe in another country, and with the right people." Intriguing because he has led his team in his own country's premier competition to victory against a number of franchise players who are in the ABs squad that had failed to make the cut after a rash of losses and Razor's "home". You see, it's such anomalies that make the prudent question the process. All it does is make Razor look just like another member of the old boys' network. Appreciate the engagement.

108 Go to comments
J
JWH 2 hours ago
Wallabies' opportunity comes from smaller All Black forwards and unbalanced back row

Ethan Blackadder is a 7, not an 8. No point in comparing the wrong positions. 111kg and 190cm at 7 is atrociously large.


Cane + Savea are smaller, but Savea is certainly stronger than most in that back row, maybe Valetini is big enough. I don't think Cane is likely to start this next game with Ethan Blackadder back, so it will likely be Sititi, Savea, Blackadder.


Set piece retention + disruption, tackle completion %, and ruck speed, are the stats I would pick to define a cohesive forward pack.


NZ have averaged 84.3% from lineout and 100% from own scrum feed in their last three games against top 4 opponents. Their opponents averaged 87.7% from the lineout and 79.7% from own scrum feed.


In comparison, Ireland averaged 85.3% from lineout and 74.3% from own scrum feed. Their opponents averaged 87.7% from the lineout and 100% from the scrum.


France also averaged 90.7% from lineout (very impressive) and 74.3% from own scrum feed (very bad). Their opponents averaged 95.7% from lineout (very bad) and 83.7% from scrum.


As we can see, at set piece NZ have been very good at disrupting opposition scrums while retaining own feed. However, lineout retention and disruption is bang average with Ireland and France, with the French pulling ahead. So NZ is right there in terms of cohesiveness in lineouts, and is better than both in terms of scrums. I have also only used stats from tests within the top 4.


France have averaged 85.7% tackle completion and 77.3% of rucks 6 seconds or less.


Ireland have averaged 86.3% tackle completion and 82.3% of rucks 6 seconds or less.


NZ have averaged 87% tackle completion and 80.7% or rucks 6 seconds or less.


So NZ have a higher tackle completion %, similar lineout, better scrum, and similar ruck speed.


Overall, NZ seem to have a better pack cohesiveness than France and Ireland, maybe barely, but small margins are what win big games.

14 Go to comments
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