The Springboks have just made it harder for themselves

So it’ll be more of the same. To be precise, it’ll be more of exactly the same. For only the second time in their time together in charge of the Springboks, a run that stretches 64 Tests all the way back to June 2018, Jacques Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus have named an identical match-day 23 for two consecutive matches.

Listening to Nienaber at the teams’ announcement, it makes perfect sense. He pointed out that to a man, each of his players put in exemplary shifts against France in their breathless victory in the quarterfinals last week. Though Jesse Kriel required stitches on a gash to his head, Nienaber also revealed that none of his charges had picked up an injury.

Form and confidence are two variables that are beyond the analysis of number crunchers, but they count just as much as gainline dominance and tackle percentages. One might argue that they count for more. And it’ll be difficult to find a more confident group of men than the 23 that dumped out the hosts in Paris last week.

WATCH as Springbok flyhalf speaks about the residual beef England will have after the 2019 World Cup Final loss to South Africa

WATCH as Springbok flyhalf speaks about the residual beef England will have after the 2019 World Cup Final loss to South Africa

However, it’s hard not to wonder if Nienaber and Erasmus missed a trick. Of course this comes with the blinking caveat that Erasmus and Nianaber, along with Mzwandile Stick, Felix Jones and various other members of the back-room team whose opinions would all be valued, are World Cup winning coaches. They clearly know what they’re doing. What’s more, they have the complete buy-in of the South African rugby public. They could name several RugbyPass columnists and editors in their squad and there would at least be a portion of fans who’d support the decision.

Having said that, I believe that Steve Borthwick, Owen Farrell and the rest of the unfancied men in white with red roses on their chest will look at the Springboks squad and think that things could have been worse had a different group been selected. South Africa will start as favourites, and I have almost no doubt that they will triumph on Saturday to meet the All Blacks in the final (with apologies to Argentina), but this might be a lot tighter than it should have been.

England have served absolute dross in this tournament. That needs to be acknowledged. What’s more, it’s much of the same dross they’ve been serving for some time, even before Eddie Jones was shown the door after getting stuffed by the Boks in Twickenham last Autumn. Borthwick was shoe-horned in and tasked with steadying a wobbling ship. Say what you want about the brand of rugby they’ve played but the former Leicester Tigers boss has done just that.

It’s been attritional, it’s been pretty hard to watch, but it has been efficient. It’s true they’ve been gifted the easiest route to the last four, but when they were asked to win games they might have otherwise lost – against Argentina and Fiji – they came out on top.

Much of this has been a result of their well-functioning line-out. It should come as no surprise that a Borthwick led team has a formidable set-piece and in Courtney Lawes, Maro Itoje and Ollie Chessum they have a trio of disrupters and ball-winners who can both make a mess of the opposition’s ball and provide go-forward for their own driving maul or scrum-half off the back. And while it’s wise to exploit a team’s weakness – of which England have a few – it is also wise to target their primary strength.

By once again opting for a 5-3 split of forwards and backs, the South Africans have limited their ability to place sustained pressure on the English line-out and maul. Of course Eben Eztebeth and Franco Mostert – the two starting locks  – are world-class operators, and the extra support provided by RG Snyman off the bench and Pieter-Steph du Toit from the back row means they are well supplied. But the squad would have at least felt more secure with an additional forward to help keep the engine burning as the game reached its crescendo.

Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins

1

Draws

0

Wins

4

Average Points scored

17

26

First try wins

80%

Home team wins

20%

With Kwagga Smith named on the bench – as is right – the Springboks have a fairly loose looking set of replacements. The addition of Jean Kleyn or Marvin Orie would have provided the line-out with an extra body to work with. And if Deon Fourie is called upon to feed the line-out, he might need all the help he can get.

South Africa will look to run England ragged when perhaps they should have selected a side to grind them to a nub. The 2019 final might have been won by two try tries from wingers, but the real victory was secured by the tight five which was immense in the scrum, totemic in the line-out and insatiable in the maul. More of the same would have surely been a better paved path to victory.

England will relish the prospect of South African running it from deep. Freddie Steward, selected at full-back, will be peppered with high balls. Not that he’ll mind. He’ll start as favourite in every aerial battle against Cheslin Kolbe, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Damian Willemse. He might have his work cut out for him if South Africa repeat their tactic of sending Etzebeth to make a nuisance of himself at up-and-unders, but in omitting Canan Moodie, the back three has a somewhat diminutive look to it. England may look to test their skills under the high ball when given the chance.

All that is to say that South Africa have more than enough to get the job done. And it is because of Nienaber’s rotation policy that means his team are fully fit and ready for a final two week’s push for the title. But I expect this match to be a scrap when it could have been a procession. As is always the case with Springboks rugby, only the result will vindicate the call.