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The stat that signposts a home win – France vs England talking points

By PA
Damian Penaud scoring for France at Twickenham last year (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

England and France clash in the climax of the 2024 Guinness Six Nations in Lyon on Saturday night, by which time it will already be known if anything is at stake on the match.

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Here, the PA news agency examines five talking points as England aim to snatch the title from Ireland’s grasp.

Farewell to Manu?
Manu Tuilagi’s first appearance of the Six Nations could also be his last for England. Although the Sale centre has remained tight-lipped over his talks with French clubs Montpellier and Bayonne, he appears certain to leave at the end of the season, at which point he will be 33 years old.

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“Ben Earl is essentially playing like a back” – Beyond 80 | RPTV

Beyond 80’s Sam Larner breaks down how impressive Ben Earl’s performance was against Ireland. Watch the full analysis show now on RugbyPass TV

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England teams have been built around his marauding runs for over a decade and the national side are unlikely to field his like again.

When he steps off the bench it will be only his 60th cap, a legacy of long spells out injured. Had he been fit for every match since his debut in 2011, he would have amassed 156 caps by now.

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Ford holds on… for now
Marcus Smith emerged as England’s match-winner when Ireland were stunned in round four, landing the deciding drop goal as well as providing a cutting edge in attack.

But in a show of faith from Steve Borthwick, George Ford continues at fly-half to complete a full set of starts in the championship.

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It is easy to forget amid Smith’s headline-generating intervention at Twickenham that Ford has performed well in this tournament, most notably orchestrating the comeback against Wales in round two and pulling the strings to potent effect last Saturday.

But for all Ford’s influence, Smith is the coming man and a stellar performance will be needed against France to hold on to the jersey for the summer tour to Japan and New Zealand.

Potential bonus points fiasco
For the first time since bonus points were introduced in 2017, a scenario has arisen whereby the Six Nations winners can claim the title despite accumulating fewer victories than the side finishing second.

That is the prospect facing England if they win at Groupama Stadium and Ireland claim at least a bonus point against Scotland.

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It is hard to envisage any outcome other than Ireland successfully defending their title, but if they do so with their closest rivals beating more teams, it will be a bad look for the tournament.

Unleash the big beasts
France’s starting and replacement forwards weigh a combined 1,000kg, a startling total that can be both a strength and weakness for the hosts.

They field the four heaviest players in Uini Atonio, Emmanuel Meafou, Georges-Henri Colombe and Romain Taofifenua – each of them over 21 stones. But with such size and power comes vulnerabilities that can be exploited through clever half-back play, a good kicking game and superior conditioning.

Related

Stats signpost home win
France are odds-on favourites to register their third win of the tournament and there is one statistic that helps explain why. Since becoming the Six Nations in 2000, Les Bleus have performed better than any other side in the final round of games, winning 17 of 24 matches.

England, meanwhile, have the second-worst record with just 10 victories. Whatever the data suggests, ‘Le Crunch’ is set up to be a humdinger with England lifted by a triumph over Ireland that is their greatest performance since the 2019 World Cup and France impressing against Wales in their last outing.

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J
JW 5 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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