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'They've been sitting there waiting': Odds stacked against Japan in Dublin

(Photo by PA Images)

Japan have the chance to avenge their most recent loss to Ireland and potentially claim a first away victory over the Celtic nation in Dublin this weekend.

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An Ireland side shorn of their British and Irish Lions were able to secure a 39-31 victory over Japan at the Aviva Stadium in July, despite the Brave Blossoms taking a 5-point lead early in the second half.

That match marked the first time the two sides had played since Japan’s inspired performance at the 2019 Rugby World Cup, which saw the home nation record a historic 19-12 win over the visitors and take pole position in their pool.

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While Ireland have had as packed a schedule over the past two years as any other top nation, Japan have played just three international games since their World Cup heroics – suffering three straight losses to the British and Irish Lions, Ireland and, most recently, Australia.

The Brave Blossoms were in touching distance of the Wallabies for the majority of the match played in Oita and even had a chance of scoring a first-ever victory going into the final five minutes, down 23-27, but the visitors had the last laugh and scored from a rolling maul to claim a well-deserved 32-23 win.

Despite their lack of luck in recent times, however, Japan have taken the field more recently than the Irish, who haven’t played a match since flogging the USA Eagles 71-10 just a week after earning their win over the Brave Blossoms earlier this season.

Even then, that was without the majority of Ireland’s top players, which means the full-strength side’s last game came in March, when they tipped over England in the final round of the Six Nations.

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As such, there may be a few things going in Japan’s favour this weekend – but both teams are still relatively undercooked at this early stage of the Autumn Nations Series.

Speaking on the latest episode of the Aotearoa Rugby Pod, former All Black James Parsons has admitted it’s hard to get a gauge on where either team stands at this point in time.

“I just think both sides have got a little bit of unknown about them, having not been able to play for a bit,” he said. “Japan, we saw against Aussie, and that was a great showing but it’s one thing to do that at home, and then [another] to go to Dublin and win a test match and the Irish will be up for it. They’ve been sitting there waiting.”

Parsons’ fellow panellist, Crusaders halfback Bryn Hall, acknowledged that while Japan had performed well against Australia, they’d be playing in vastly different conditions in Dublin.

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“You look at that 77th minute against Australia, they were in that game, and if it weren’t for Rob Valetini making that steal to be able to ice the game, Japan were right into that game,” Hall said. “I think the improvement for them moving forward is knowing that it’s going to be in France in 2023, and the conditions could be a little more different than they’re accustomed to, being at home, being a lot hotter and [playing with a] dry ball.

“What I did like in Japan, they probably didn’t get the execution right with the contestable aspect but they’ve got the game to be able to do that. I don’t know what the weather’s going to be like in Ireland, it could be a little bit wet, but we know how much of a [fast] tempo mindset that the Japanese do have.

“I did see in that game, they had the likes of the box kick, being able to have it set up really quickly so if they feel like they’re not able to go anywhere, at least they’ve got the mindset to be able to … put a contestable up off 9 or they might do it off 10. I was really happy to be able to see that because knowing that [they’ll] go to the Northern Hemisphere, having that in your toolbox, having to go from Plan A to Plan B … I think that’s going to be real crucial for Japan moving forward.

“But then I think, as well, their set-piece, having that parity in set-piece is always going to be something really important going into Ireland because no doubt, if you’re Ireland, you want to really dominate that set-piece through scrum and lineout and if Japan can run at that 85-90 per cent and nail moments with that set-piece – and big moments – and win a lineout, win a scrum when they need to, then they could be in a very similar situation like they were against Australia.”

Parsons agreed that the biggest work-on for Japan is at the set-piece, with their solid work at the scrums and lineouts in Oita paving the way for their backs to unleash some strong backline plays.

“I think the other key is the maul D as well, that’s where they probably lost the game, that was Aussie’s last try, and that will be big for them on this tour,” the former hooker said. “They really need to aim up and have a plan around how they’re going to stop these driving mauls because the opportunities will come – it’s rugby. And they’ve got to make sure they don’t make it as easy as they did for the Wallabies at the end of that game.”

Both Hall and Parsons suggested that Japan will benefit from the trip north and that despite not being favourites for the match, a win for the touring Brave Blossoms could help to continue to shake up world rugby.

“Any time you can play against a top-tier nation away from home, especially in the Northern Hemishphere, it’s only going to be able to make you better as a team,” Hall said.

“I’m excited by this test match and I think, man, if Japan could do something special, it would really spice up international rugby,” said Parsons. “Whenever they do do these big one-off wins, it’s big talking points in the game of sport, in general, not just rugby people talk it, but everyone starts talking it. So I think a victory away from home, in Ireland, would be huge for our game as a whole.

“Ireland [will win] for me. I just think at home, conditions, travel. It’s weighted in their favour. It’ll be close though.”

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Tom 6 hours ago
What is the future of rugby in 2025?

Briiiiiiiiiiiiiiiistol! Briiiiiiiiiiiiiiiistol! Briiiiiiiiiiiiiiiistol!


It's incredible to see the boys playing like this. Back to the form that saw them finish on top of the regular season and beat Toulon to win the challenge cup. Ibitoye and Ravouvou doing a cracking Piutau/Radradra impression.


It's abundantly clear that Borthwick and Wigglesworth need to transform the England attack and incorporate some of the Bears way. Unfortunately until the Bears are competing in Europe, the old criticisms will still be used.. we failed to fire any punches against La Rochelle and Leinster which goes to show there is still work to do but both those sides are packed full of elite players so it's not the fairest comparison to expect Bristol to compete with them. I feel Bristol are on the way up though and the best is yet to come. Tom Jordan next year is going to be obscene.


Test rugby is obviously a different beast and does Borthwick have enough time with the players to develop the level of skill the Bears plays have? Even if he wanted to? We should definitely be able to see some progress, Scotland have certainly managed it. England aren't going to start throwing the ball around like that but England's attack looks prehistoric by comparison, I hope they take some inspiration from the clarity and freedom of expression shown by the Bears (and Scotland - who keep beating us, by the way!). Bristol have the best attack in the premiership, it'd be mad for England to ignore it because it doesn't fit with the Borthwick and Wigglesworth idea of how test rugby should be played. You gotta use what is available to you. Sadly I think England will try reluctantly to incorporate some of these ideas and end up even more confused and lacking identity than ever. At the moment England have two teams, they have 14 players and Marcus Smith. Marcus sticks out as a sore thumb in a team coached to play in a manner ideologically opposed to the way he plays rugby, does the Bears factor confuse matters further? I just have no confidence in Borthers and Wiggles.


Crazy to see the Prem with more ball in play than SR!

7 Go to comments
J
JW 10 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

In another recent article I tried to argue for a few key concept changes for EPCR which I think could light the game up in the North.


First, I can't remember who pointed out the obvious elephant in the room (a SA'n poster?), it's a terrible time to play rugby in the NH, and especially your pinnacle tournament. It's been terrible watching with seemingly all the games I wanted to watch being in the dark, hardly able to see what was going on. The Aviva was the only stadium I saw that had lights that could handle the miserable rain. If the global appeal is there, they could do a lot better having day games.


They other primary idea I thuoght would benefit EPCR most, was more content. The Prem could do with it and the Top14 could do with something more important than their own league, so they aren't under so much pressure to sell games. The quality over quantity approach.


Trim it down to two 16 team EPCR competitions, and introduce a third for playing amongst the T2 sides, or the bottom clubs in each league should simply be working on being better during the EPCR.


Champions Cup is made up of league best 15 teams, + 1, the Challenge Cup winner. Without a reason not to, I'd distribute it evenly based on each leauge, dividing into thirds and rounded up, 6 URC 5 Top14 4 English. Each winner (all four) is #1 rank and I'd have a seeding round or two for the other 12 to determine their own brackets for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. I'd then hold a 6 game pool, home and away, with consecutive of each for those games that involve SA'n teams. Preferrably I'd have a regional thing were all SA'n teams were in the same pool but that's a bit complex for this simple idea.


That pool round further finalises the seeding for knockout round of 16. So #1 pool has essentially duked it out for finals seeding already (better venue planning), and to see who they go up against 16, 15,etc etc. Actually I think I might prefer a single pool round for seeding, and introduce the home and away for Ro16, quarters, and semis (stuffs up venue hire). General idea to produce the most competitive matches possible until the random knockout phase, and fix the random lottery of which two teams get ranked higher after pool play, and also keep the system identical for the Challenge Cup so everthing is succinct. Top T2 side promoted from last year to make 16 in Challenge Cup

207 Go to comments
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