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Things looking bleak in All Black land

(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

A nagging fear that has settled in the back of the minds of New Zealand rugby fans in recent years has blossomed into a stark and unavoidable realisation; the All Blacks no longer are the best team in the world and may not be again, for a while at least.

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Ireland’s 23-12 win over New Zealand in the second Test on Saturday which has sent the three-match series to a decider was historic but not unexpected.

If there had been a canary in the gold mine, warning of the insidious forces behind the All Blacks’ recent decline it has been Ireland. The Irish hadn’t beaten New Zealand in 113 years until they did so for the first time in 2016.

Video Spacer

Ian Foster | All Blacks press conference

Video Spacer

Ian Foster | All Blacks press conference

They now have won four of the last seven Tests between the teams, at venues as diverse as Chicago, Dublin and Dunedin where they achieved their first-ever win over the All Blacks in New Zealand on Saturday.

All Blacks fans were shaken not just by the fact but the manner of Saturday’s defeat. Ireland controlled the game from the start, keeping the All Blacks under pressure, forcing them into mistakes. At any point in the match, New Zealand was barely hanging on especially when reduced to 13 men twice during the first half, to 14 for all of the second spell.

Lack of discipline was the most obvious of many failings in the All Blacks’ performance and they now head to Wellington for Saturday’s deciding Test under unprecedented pressure. A confident Ireland team who, having achieved an historic test victory, now have set their sights on an even more momentous series win.

The ramifications of the All Blacks’ loss have been immediate. When new world rankings are released this week, New Zealand is expected to drop to fourth place, matching its lowest-ever ranking.

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To some degree the ranking may even be generous. The All Blacks recently have lost to England, South Africa, France and Ireland, suggesting that on disclosed form they are possibly only the fifth-best team in the world.

The social media reaction of New Zealand fans also was typically harsh: All Blacks fans seldom accept any defeat with equanimity.

Many fans called for the sacking of head coach Ian Foster whose popularity even before Saturday’s match was low. Others called for captain Sam Cane to go. Fans separately called the All Blacks performance awful, painful, tragic, a shambles and a farce.

Foster, at his most somber during a post-game news conference, matched that mood and called the performance “unacceptable” and “sub-standard.”

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In the week leading up to the final Test, Foster said “we’ve just got to trust ourselves and trust what we do and ultimately back your own skill level. That’s something we’ve got to go away and work hard on.”

If New Zealand lose again next weekend, the odds that Foster will lead the All Blacks to next year’s World Cup in France will shrink substantially.

The cause of the All Blacks’ recent poor form is hard to define. Northern hemisphere teams unquestionably have improved, often under the guidance of New Zealand coaches who were unable to find positions in their own country.

England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland all won Tests against southern hemisphere opponents on Saturday to send their series to deciding matches.

One important factor is that the standard of Super Rugby – the southern hemisphere’s main professional competition – has fallen, especially since South African teams quit the competition to play in the northern hemisphere. The tournament no longer serves its purpose of developing players of Test calibre.

At the same time, New Zealand Rugby has been distracted from the deterioration in the standard of the domestic game while pursuing a deal with the California-based tech investor Silver Lake which it regards as essential to ensure the financial health of rugby in New Zealand.

With Australia now poised to quit Super Rugby in 2024, a decisive move is needed to create a new competition which can underpin the strength of future All Blacks teams.

-Steve McMorran/AAP

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Comments

7 Comments
G
Guy 891 days ago

There is clearly panic in the All Blacks camp and we no longer know what excuse to find to justify the accumulation of defeats.

—"You can't say it was a fair fight, because they weren't playing 15-15" (Jeff Wilson).
Coming from a "great" All Black, this excuse is really petty: even at 14 against 15, a "great" team competes and some win.
_
—"Fans are shutting down rugby in New Zealand because of overly complicated and constantly changing rules..." _(ric)
1-It's not the fans who have lost some games in recent years, it's PROFESSIONAL PLAYERS
2- The rules are getting more complicated FOR EVERYONE and each team must make the effort to integrate and respect them. If the All Blacks don't want it, they can still play Beach Rugby.

The real problem is that the All Blacks have had 2 or 3 generations of exceptional players guided by excellent coaches. For a few years, New Zealand's domination was unchallenged (except for the 2011 World Cup final stolen from France by Mr. Joubert) which made many fans believe that the game of Rugby belonged to them.
They will have to get used to the contrary, unless... if they want to keep losing fans.

C
Chesterfield 896 days ago

Please the South Africans lost 3-0 in the series to Australians last year and haven’t won Super Rugby for 12 years. They have been protected by world rugby during COVID and were only competitive in two matches with the All Blacks last year. If anything the standard of Super Rugby has gone up because they aren’t playing.

r
ric 897 days ago

who says the standard of super rugby has fallen? you are basing this on what? when was the last time you saw the crusaders play a northern Hemisphere team to confirm this theory?...Fans are turning off rugby in nz because of the overly complicated and ever changing rules that seem to change from referee to referee and make little sense...it is often a lottery....and when there is an arguably superior trans - Tasman oval ball competition to turn to it is no wonder

S
Silk 897 days ago

I agree completely. I said the same last year and was taken apart by AB fans.
URC, Premiership and Top14 is superior in quality to Super Rugby.
Now on international level, The proof is in the pudding.

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J
JW 54 minutes ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

In another recent article I tried to argue for a few key concept changes for EPCR which I think could light the game up in the North.


First, I can't remember who pointed out the obvious elephant in the room (a SA'n poster?), it's a terrible time to play rugby in the NH, and especially your pinnacle tournament. It's been terrible watching with seemingly all the games I wanted to watch being in the dark, hardly able to see what was going on. The Aviva was the only stadium I saw that had lights that could handle the miserable rain. If the global appeal is there, they could do a lot better having day games.


They other primary idea I thuoght would benefit EPCR most, was more content. The Prem could do with it and the Top14 could do with something more important than their own league, so they aren't under so much pressure to sell games. The quality over quantity approach.


Trim it down to two 16 team EPCR competitions, and introduce a third for playing amongst the T2 sides, or the bottom clubs in each league should simply be working on being better during the EPCR.


Champions Cup is made up of league best 15 teams, + 1, the Challenge Cup winner. Without a reason not to, I'd distribute it evenly based on each leauge, dividing into thirds and rounded up, 6 URC 5 Top14 4 English. Each winner (all four) is #1 rank and I'd have a seeding round or two for the other 12 to determine their own brackets for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. I'd then hold a 6 game pool, home and away, with consecutive of each for those games that involve SA'n teams. Preferrably I'd have a regional thing were all SA'n teams were in the same pool but that's a bit complex for this simple idea.


That pool round further finalises the seeding for knockout round of 16. So #1 pool has essentially duked it out for finals seeding already (better venue planning), and to see who they go up against 16, 15,etc etc. Actually I think I might prefer a single pool round for seeding, and introduce the home and away for Ro16, quarters, and semis (stuffs up venue hire). General idea to produce the most competitive matches possible until the random knockout phase, and fix the random lottery of which two teams get ranked higher after pool play, and also keep the system identical for the Challenge Cup so everthing is succinct. Top T2 side promoted from last year to make 16 in Challenge Cup

207 Go to comments
J
JW 6 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I had a look at the wiki article again, it's all terribly old data (not that I'd see reason for much change in the case of SA).

Number Of Clubs:

1526

Registered+Unregistered Players:

651146

Number of Referees:

3460

Pre-teen Male Players:

320842

Pre-teen Female Player:

4522

Teen Male Player:

199213

Teen Female Player:

4906

Senior Male Player:

113174

Senior Female Player:

8489

Total Male Player:

633229

Total Female Player:

17917


So looking for something new as were more concerned with adults specifically, so I had a look at their EOY Financial Review.

The total number of clubs remains consistent, with a marginal increase of 1% from 1,161 to 1,167. 8.1.

A comparative analysis of verified data for 2022 and 2023 highlights a marginal decline of 1% in the number of female players, declining from 6,801 to 6,723. Additionally, the total number of players demonstrates an 8% decrease, dropping from 96,172 to 88,828.

So 80k+ adult males (down from 113k), but I'm not really sure when youth are involved with SAn clubs, or if that data is for some reason not being referenced/included. 300k male students however (200k in old wiki data).


https://resources.world.rugby/worldrugby/document/2020/07/28/212ed9cf-cd61-4fa3-b9d4-9f0d5fb61116/P56-57-Participation-Map_v3.pdf has France at 250k registered but https://presse-europe1-fr.translate.goog/exclu-europe-1-le-top-10-des-sports-les-plus-pratiques-en-france-en-2022/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp has them back up at 300k registered.


The French number likely Students + Club, but everyone collects data different I reckon. In that WR pdf for instance a lot of the major nations have a heavily registered setup, were as a nation like England can penetrate into a lot more schools to run camps and include them in the reach of rugby. For instance the SARU release says only 29% of schools are reached by proper rugby programs, where as the 2million English number would be through a much much higer penetration I'd imagine. Which is thanks to schools having the ability to involve themselves in programs more than anything.


In any case, I don't think you need to be concerned with the numbers, whether they are 300 or 88k, there is obviously a big enough following for their pro scenes already to have enough quality players for a 10/12 team competition. They appear ibgger than France but I don't really by the lower English numbers going around.

207 Go to comments
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