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This is not a dangerous All Black side for the Boks to 'watch out' for

(Photos by Phil Walter/Getty Images/Ashley Vlotman/Gallo Images and Ross Parker/SNS Group via Getty Images)

The current form of the All Blacks suggests that they will be beaten in South Africa.

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Not demolished, but beaten in each of the tests where home advantage will play a part for the Springboks in what would be their first home victories over New Zealand since 2014.

You can’t logically pick the All Blacks on hopes and dreams of a fiery response just because their pride and egos have been hurt. If that mattered, they would have responded in the third test against Ireland after winning just one of the last four tests.

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They didn’t win simply because their execution is below par, while Ireland’s was superb, and that is the form they are bringing to South Africa.

The coaching staff has changed and the opponent has changed but the players haven’t. It remains to be seen how quickly the players can respond to new voices.

The Irish pack outworked, outplayed and out-thought New Zealand’s forwards, led by dismissed assistant coach John Plumtree, in the three-match series.

While Ireland have put together one of the best packs in the game, the manner in which their Kiwi counterparts crumbled across the second and third tests is of major concern.

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Ill-discipline, missed tackles, poor reads in defence, bad angles all over the park – the All Black forwards were not a polished unit. Hidden in the tape are the questionable efforts and decisions.

At times, they produced good plays in defence. Whether it was Akira Ioane or Ardie Savea driving an Irish ball carrier sideways or behind the gainline, they enforced themselves defensively in short bursts.

Then, all of a sudden, the line opened up all too easily after some smart play from Ireland and the All Blacks would be scrambling with the defensive system reeling. This was the case early in every test match.

The Springboks will not whip the ball from sideline to sideline with meticulously planned moves like Ireland, and in that sense, the defensive reads for the All Blacks will be much easier defending a one-dimensional attack.

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It will be as basic as see man with ball, hit man. When the Springboks backs try to play, the ball ends up on the floor or over the sideline more than coaches would like.

Stars like Cheslin Kolbe can pull off something brilliant as an individual when given half a chance, but ask them to put it all together as a unit and they tend to come up with rocks quite frequently, which is similar to these All Blacks.

The assignment ahead is brute physicality, yet the memories of Irish loose forwards regularly cutting through some feeble tackle attempts are still fresh. There is little confidence that the All Blacks will be able to hold ground against Bok carry after Bok carry for long.

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Wales faltered in their third test against South Africa, but they actually found a technical defensive solution in the first test to blunt the Springboks’ runners. It worked so well it is hard to understand why they didn’t continue it.

The surprise recall of Dan Lydiate tipped off what Wales would try to do. The man known as “The Chopper” for his grass-cutter tackles led the way for a Welsh pack that cut the Springboks down at the knees.

One-by-one, the Welsh pack courageously rushed forward and went low to chop South Africa’s ball runners in half. The nearest defenders wrapped the ball carrier up top and made a total mess of the carry and ensuing breakdown.

Although dangerous and putting one’s self in harm’s way, the commitment by the Welsh pack to attack low with chop tackles paid off as the Springboks ground game went nowhere and faltered behind the gain line for most of the day.

Eben Etzebeth had five or six carries for a net gain of one metre, if that. He was well and truly handled by a gritty and committed opposing pack that put one of the Boks’ best ball carriers on ice, and that is a rare occurrence.

In the third test, the Welsh tacklers went high and they were steamrolled as multiple tries were scored simply by running one-off carries.

Handre Pollard and Siya Kolisi were the beneficiaries and scored barge-over tries when the Welsh line could not take the punishment any longer.

The All Blacks pack rarely gang tackle and don’t work hard enough to swarm the ball carriers after the chop like Wales did in Bloemfontein, and to be brutally honest, don’t have the daring to go that low either.

It won’t be their thing, despite the tactic being a success early in the Springboks-Wales series.

 

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In addition to stopping big ball runners, the All Blacks will also have to perform well in the air.

If they can nail the Boks behind the gain line, the ball will be promptly sent to the heavens and that means Jordie Barrett has to step up and perform at the level he did last year under the high ball, which was exceptionally well.

This year there have been concerns in the aerial game: in the third test against Ireland, the All Blacks failed to secure the high ball regularly, whether it was a kick-chase or diffusing one on defence.

The Irish tactic of using the one-handed back-bat disrupted the catch zone often and was a smart tactic the All Blacks backfield did not find an answer for.

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The go-to for South Africa is clearly the rolling maul, which bailed them out in that first test against Wales, as it has on many other occasions.

The Irish mauled over the top of the All Blacks pack for two tries in Wellington, on the first maul attempt on both occasions.

The Springboks forwards will do the same if afforded the opportunity, and they likely will, based on the poor discipline demonstrated this season by the All Blacks.

New All Blacks forwards coach Jason Ryan will have to work magic in a short time to improve his pack’s efficiency across a broad range of areas, including the maul defence and discipline.

Milking penalties from the maul and scrum is South Africa’s plan A, B and all the way to Z. The All Blacks need solutions to stop the piggybacks occurring and head coach Ian Foster will be hopeful that Ryan has those answers.

If the All Blacks are ill-disciplined like they were against Ireland, the Springboks will play their set-piece-athon game without much fuss and will control proceedings and the clock.

They don’t need to be that good elsewhere, strength and power should be enough to get them home against an out-of-sorts All Blacks side with plenty of issues to get through.

The narrative this is a dangerous All Black side to watch out for because they are losing and hurting is total nonsense.

Will they be tough to play? Sure. They will fight hard as all All Blacks sides do. But will they be dangerous? The evidence says absolutely not.

A dangerous All Black side is one that is winning regularly and putting 40 points on opponents playing an attractive brand of attacking, clinical rugby that looks unstoppable.

They are clearly not that side. You couldn’t dream of a better time to play them over the last 20 years than right now when they are losing test matches left, right and centre with instability in the coaching staff.

Who would you rather play, a winning, in-form All Black side or a losing, out-of-sorts one?

The Springboks have two games at home and not only is two wins on offer, it is the probable outcome.

If they can’t beat the worst performing All Black side in 25 years in their own backyard for the first time since 2014, when will they?

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Comments

19 Comments
M
Matt 848 days ago

don’t have the daring to go that low either.
Yes, because chop tackles are dangerous tackles that Wales got away with. No way will the All Blacks get away with them, they'd be red carded in seconds if they tried.

S
Snash 848 days ago

Ben is entitled to his opinion as he is entitled to ignore game stats like line breaks. metres carried etc.

E
E 848 days ago

Seems like Benny is determined to become the Fox News of rugby commentary. A concoction of dog-whistles, half-truths,
blatant non-facts and some completely irrelevant opinions. All this to garner more attention and comments. The truth is that Springbok and All-Black rugby players, past and present, have a huge amount of respect for each other, built up over a long period of time. True supporters, of both sides, share this respect. It is truly a pity, that someone who obviously has zero insight into anything South African, is given a platform to demonstrate his ignorance, over and over again.

J
Joshwin 848 days ago

I honestly don't know why rugbypass still post this poephol's articles. it's literally giving a guy with a uge grudge a pen and platform...and now his wonderful ABs isn't doing so well, nothing to brag about now neh? and now he's even going so far as to crucify his own team so no one is making him eat his own words!!! such a selfish moffie!!! Just leave the SPRINGBOKS alone bro we have absolutely nothing to do with you whatsoever!!!!

W
Warren 848 days ago

You know what I would love? For Ben to be invited in to both team’s locker room. He must stand in front of the All Blacks and tell them how bad he thinks they are. Then, if he survives it, he must go visit the Springboks and tell them how mediocre he thinks they are. C’mon Ben, get up from your keyboard…

W
Warren 848 days ago

You know what I would love? For Ben to be invited in to both team’s locker room. He must stand in front of the All Blacks and tell them how bad he thinks they are. Then, if he survives it, he must go visit the Springboks and tell them how mediocre he thinks they are. C’mon Ben, get up from your keyboard…

G
Gerald 848 days ago

Ben, not sure if you are trying to win a comedy show, but writing this type of hilarious nonsense might work for you. You only have to go back to just before the WC when we beat you guys in the last minute and see the emotion and tears in Pieter-Steph du Toit, to understand the respect we have for the ABs. Not sure if you have ever played rugger, and probably not at any serious level, but if you had played the game then you would understand that the Boks view the ABs as the Everest. A sudden loss to Ireland or even France won’t change that, however clever you try and be by writing this stuff.
Rassie and co will prepare properly, and maybe we don’t win, but we will NEVER underestimate the ABs. We don’t yet have the athletic skills in our back line that you guys have, so need to revert to what works for us. Would be interesting to see how we would operate should we add back line skills and nous to the forward depth we have?

C
Chris2 848 days ago

Ben Smith is creating a a hollow victory situation for the Boks. A win against the "worst performing All Blacks side in 25 years" is to be "expected". However if the Boks lose he will have writing material for another 50 years

B
Belson 849 days ago

What a disingenuous article! Ben Smurf is well aware that World Rugby Cartel won’t allow its precious All Pacific marketing gimmick to be beaten by the Bokke (a team the Cartel despises). Just look at the referees named for the games. They have probably already cashed in their thirty pieces of silver to stitch up the Boks!

H
Henry 849 days ago

The Boks should win for the reasons outlined above. The NZ pack, particularly the front 5, doesn’t seem up to the standard of the heavyweight packs like France, Ireland, SA, and England (the last based on 2019 RWC semi final). Where they are still dangerous is in having some great individuals who can score tries out of nothing, this was what kept them in the game in the third test v Ireland, but also the autumn games against France and Ireland. They are misfiring as a team no doubt, and they are too many players out of position or form and it’s not clear what they’re trying to do, but the Boks will still have to watch out for their dangerous runners.

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J
JW 3 hours ago
'Passionate reunion of France and New Zealand shows Fabien Galthie is wrong to rest his stars'

Ok, managed to read the full article..

... New Zealand’s has only 14 and the professional season is all over within four months. In France, club governance is the responsibility of an independent organisation [the Ligue Nationale de Rugby or LNR] which is entirely separate from the host union [the Fédération Française de Rugby or FFR]. Down south New Zealand Rugby runs the provincial and the national game.

That is the National Provincial Championship, a competition of 14 representative union based teams run through the SH international window and only semi professional (paid only during it's running). It is run by NZR and goes for two and a half months.


Super Rugby is a competition involving 12 fully professional teams, of which 5 are of New Zealand eligibility, and another joint administered team of Pacific Island eligibility, with NZR involvement. It was a 18 week competition this year, so involved (randomly chosen I believe) extra return fixtures (2 or 3 home and away derbys), and is run by Super Rugby Pacific's own independent Board (or organisation). The teams may or may not be independently run and owned (note, this does not necessarily mean what you think of as 'privately owned').


LNR was setup by FFR and the French Government to administer the professional game in France. In New Zealand, the Players Association and Super Rugby franchises agreed last month to not setup their own governance structure for professional rugby and re-aligned themselves with New Zealand Rugby. They had been proposing to do something like the English model, I'm not sure how closely that would have been aligned to the French system but it did not sound like it would have French union executive representation on it like the LNR does.

In the shaky isles the professional pyramid tapers to a point with the almighty All Blacks. In France the feeling for country is no more important than the sense of fierce local identity spawned at myriad clubs concentrated in the southwest. Progress is achieved by a nonchalant shrug and the wide sweep of nuanced negotiation, rather than driven from the top by a single intense focus.

Yes, it is pretty much a 'representative' selection system at every level, but these union's are having to fight for their existence against the regime that is NZR, and are currently going through their own battle, just as France has recently as I understand it. A single focus, ala the French game, might not be the best outcome for rugby as a whole.


For pure theatre, it is a wonderful article so far. I prefer 'Ntamack New Zealand 2022' though.

The young Crusader still struggles to solve the puzzle posed by the shorter, more compact tight-heads at this level but he had no problem at all with Colombe.

It was interesting to listen to Manny during an interview on Maul or Nothing, he citied that after a bit of banter with the All Black's he no longer wanted one of their jersey's after the game. One of those talks was an eye to eye chat with Tamaiti Williams, there appear to be nothing between the lock and prop, just a lot of give and take. I thought TW angled in and caused Taylor to pop a few times, and that NZ were lucky to be rewarded.

f you have a forward of 6ft 8ins and 145kg, and he is not at all disturbed by a dysfunctional set-piece, you are in business.

He talked about the clarity of the leadership that helped alleviate any need for anxiety at the predicaments unfolding before him. The same cannot be said for New Zealand when they had 5 minutes left to retrieve a match winning penalty, I don't believe. Did the team in black have much of a plan at any point in the game? I don't really call an autonomous 10 vehicle they had as innovative. I think Razor needs to go back to the dealer and get a new game driver on that one.

Vaa’i is no match for his power on the ground. Even in reverse, Meafou is like a tractor motoring backwards in low gear, trampling all in its path.

Vaa'i actually stops him in his tracks. He gets what could have been a dubious 'tackle' on him?

A high-level offence will often try to identify and exploit big forwards who can be slower to reload, and therefore vulnerable to two quick plays run at them consecutively.

Yes he was just standing on his haunches wasn't he? He mentioned that in the interview, saying that not only did you just get up and back into the line to find the opposition was already set and running at you they also hit harder than anything he'd experienced in the Top 14. He was referring to New Zealands ultra-physical, burst-based Super style of course, which he was more than a bit surprised about. I don't blame him for being caught out.


He still sent the obstruction back to the repair yard though!

What wouldn’t the New Zealand rugby public give to see the likes of Mauvaka and Meafou up front..

Common now Nick, don't go there! Meafou showed his Toulouse shirt and promptly got his citizenship, New Zealand can't have him, surely?!?


As I have said before with these subjects, really enjoy your enthusiasm for their contribution on the field and I'd love to see more of their shapes running out for Vern Cotter and the like styled teams.

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