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This Weekend's Four Must-Watch Super Rugby Matches

aaron

Paul Neazor previews some tantalising Super Rugby match-ups this weekend, including a rematch of the thrilling 2015 final.

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Crusaders vs Blues (Friday, Christchurch)
The Blues won the first two matches at Christchurch but since then the Crusaders have won nine of the last ten matches they’ve hosted in this series. The Blues have not won at Christchurch since 2004. So the Crusaders will  be hot favourites… right?

Not so fast. The Blues were value for their win last week against the defending champs, and got it the hard way – by attacking when they could, kicking most of their goals and defending when they had to on a muggy, sticky evening. The Crusaders battled hard against the Chiefs, but couldn’t hold them over the closing stages on an extremely hot night.

Of the two, the Blues were more impressive. It took some moments of rare skill for the Highlanders to unlock the defence, and the aggressive defence through the third quarter went a long way to deciding the game. The Chiefs did the same to the Crusaders, who couldn’t counter.

I’m picking the Blues to take this, despite it being in Christchurch and against a Crusaders team that’s 0-1. If they can gain parity up front, those big backs will be tiring to defend against all night, and they’ll bash some holes. The Blues might be a little better than I thought, and I didn’t think they were going to be a rabble this year.

Pick: Blues by 6.

Brumbies vs Waratahs (Friday, Canberra)
Since this fixture sees the home team win more often than any other in the competition, you’d be starting the Brumbies as favourites on the score of history. Since we watched them hammer the Hurricanes in the opener by 50 points and do it without letting up, you’d give them a few points for form. And after watching the Waratahs beat the Reds without ever threatening to roll over the top of them, you’d give the Brumbies another couple of points for intensity.

Although it’s only round two, this match could give the first major sign as to which side will top the Australian conference and therefore gain by far the easier playoff route. I’m picking the Brumbies to win; if they win well it could be a big warning sign to the field. If they win without dominating, or without trying to play much footy, they will be vulnerable to the good teams. Frankly, if the Waratahs win it will be a surprise.

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Pick: Brumbies by 15.

Chiefs vs Lions (Saturday, Hamilton)
Until recently, you’d have checked the box marked ‘Chiefs by plenty’ and moved right on. But the last couple of years should have encouraged everyone to take a longer look at this game.

The Lions have been strong at home for two or three seasons now. Last year they went 3-4 on their antipodean tour; an all-time best for the Johannesburg team in Super rugby. They’ve won a couple of Currie Cups too, so the lack of showcase names doesn’t necessarily mean a lack of talent. Or ticker … the Lions have plenty of bottle.

But the Chiefs looked good at Addington in uncomfortable heat last weekend, eventually rolling over the Crusaders to claim a meritorious win. It was hard work, but the work was done and the right team won, by about the right amount.

I’d be surprised if the Lions won this game, despite the fact I rate them as one of the better South African teams. But it won’t be easy, and the Chiefs will have to put a lot of effort and concentration into the 80 minutes to get that win.

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Pick: Chiefs by 12.

Highlanders vs Hurricanes (Saturday, Dunedin)
The replay of the 2015 final will be eagerly anticipated, although both sides go into the match having dropped their openers. The difference was the Highlanders were close throughout the match at Auckland, while the Hurricanes got pasted at Canberra.

Given that the Dunedin weather may be hot and sticky on Saturday, playing at Auckland may have been a good opener for the Highlanders. More to the point, the fact that they took a committed opponent to the wire suggests they were more in tune with the demands of competition play than the Hurricanes. You never do much right if you go under by 50.

I’m taking the Highlanders here, but not by all that much. No fewer than 14 of the last 15 matches have been decided by seven points or less; this could well be another one of those games.

Pick: Highlanders by 3

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J
JW 6 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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