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This might be the All Blacks' greatest knockout win of all-time and that's the danger

Will Jordan and Aaron Smith of New Zealand react after winning the Rugby World Cup France 2023 Quarter Final match between Ireland and New Zealand at Stade de France on October 14, 2023 in Paris, France. (Photo by Aurelien Meunier/Getty Images)

The All Blacks 28-24 win over Ireland in the quarter-final was a pulsating, titanic battle between two contenders that came down to one inch as Jordie Barrett held up hooker Ronan Kelleher detaching from the Irish maul.

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That one play with nine minute remaining is massively responsible for sending the world’s number one side out of the Rugby World Cup. It wasn’t the last play, which was Sam Whitelock’s steal after 37 phases of Irish attack, but it was the most important.

Decided by one inch, Barrett’s heroic tackle signifies the closeness of the battle and the fine margins that it came down to.

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To suggest Ireland choked is an inaccurate assessment of what happened. They countered twice from 13-0 down and 18-10 to take the fight to the end. Going within one point multiple times.

If not for Barrett’s effort they would have taken the lead 29-28 with the kick to come and about six minutes to play.

Ireland did not choke and it doesn’t matter that they couldn’t shake the quarter-final exit tag either.

There is no moral victory in semi-final or final losses for either of these two sides, who were both genuine contenders for the Rugby World Cup. Success for both was win it all or go home with nothing.

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Ireland had a side capable of winning it all and won’t. If the All Blacks lose either the semi or final, their campaign will be a failure as well.

This was a great contest between the powers of the game for a quarter-final for the ages.

Ruck Speed

0-3 secs
59%
40%
3-6 secs
31%
45%
6+ secs
5%
12%
129
Rucks Won
94

When Leicester Fainga’anuku crossed for the first try after linking up with Rieko Ioane and Jordie Barrett, it symbolised just how far the All Blacks backline has come since the ill-fated Ireland series.

Fainga’anuku debuted in that series and after the second Test he was dropped completely. Without him on the field in the third Test everything was out of sorts.

In that series Rieko Ioane and Jordie Barrett, then playing fullback, had no ability to link and create space from static ball.

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After Beauden Barrett had recovered a chip in behind Ireland’s line in the 18th minute, the All Blacks played their classic brand of free-form attack. Just play to the edge quickly, make quick decisions and attack the space.

Jordie Barrett held the outside space to free Fainganuku, who combined with Ioane from a 1-2 touch with a genius pass back inside to his winger to crash over and extend the lead to 13-0.

Just over twelve months ago these same combinations could not produce anything like that. Not for lack of talent or ability but for no shared understanding, trust or chemsitry.

Ioane continued to show his growth as a 13 with another deft assist for Ardie Savea to score in the corner just before half-time.

Points Flow Chart

New Zealand win +4
Time in lead
0
Mins in lead
77
0%
% Of Game In Lead
93%
72%
Possession Last 10 min
28%
0
Points Last 10 min
0

The Rieko Ioane move to the midfield has been one of Ian Foster’s biggest investments and calls of faith during his tenure. He has believed in Ioane all the way and stuck through the growing pains.

Ioane’s game improved out of sight down the stretch in 2022 after Joe Schmidt joined the coaching set-up and he repaid Foster’s faith with two try assists against statistically the best defence in world rugby in 2023.

Richie Mo’unga, who did not start during last year’s Ireland series, has been integral to rebuilding the All Blacks backline too. His best showings in a black jersey have come along with Schmidt’s arrival.

He ripped Ireland for a gut-punch of a play in the 52nd minute to blow open the game from a lineout. As he has so often done for the Crusaders, he ghosted through Dan Sheehan and Josh van der Flier with an inside show-and-go.

Blazing through the Irish backfield defence he manoeuvred perfectly to ensure that James Lowe couldn’t cover enough ground on Will Jordan, the perfect player to find in support to finish off the strike.

It was a game of big plays and the All Blacks made just enough to beat Ireland despite suffering two yellow cards.

Mack Hansen’s cross-field kick bounced too high for Dan Sheehan on the wing with an open line begging. Both sides had red zone visits erased by big breakdown penalties, Ardie Savea and Sam Cane combined to snub an Irish one out. Johnny Sexton missed a key penalty which cost Ireland dearly.

The biggest play of them all was Jordie Barrett’s miraculous tackle to hold up hooker Ronan Kelleher diving over the line after he detached from the maul.

The context of this win might be the greatest All Blacks’ World Cup knockout win of all-time. Outside of World Cup finals, it has a strong case.

They haven’t had to beat the world’s number one team before due to always holding that tag themselves. Given the recent history between these two rivals and the historic series loss at home, they were rightly priced as underdogs.

To defend for 37 phases without conceding a penalty in this day and age is a nearly implausible. But that’s what it took to deny a quality Irish side of progressing.

The biggest danger for the All Blacks is next. Plenty of teams have emptied the tank in underdog knockout victories only to have their euphoric state smashed to bits the next week.

In 2019 it was England, in 2007 it was France.

Although the All Blacks will be hot favourites to dispatch Argentina, do not forget that Los Pumas beat Foster’s side last year. Or that they handed them a first ever defeat in 2020.

The curse of this game is that it was a final before the final. When teams play their final before the final, we know what can happen. It is hard to get up again after investing so much emotion into it. Even more so the All Blacks had revenge in mind so the intensity of the preparation is heightened.

Most people die on Mt Everest on the way down, not climbing up. Aaron Smith crying his eyes out at full-time will be exactly what Argentina want to see.

David Kidwell’s defence has stuffed this All Blacks side twice before and a third time next week would be most untimely.

But for now this one can be added high on the list on the All Blacks’ World Cup legacy.

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Comments

66 Comments
G
GrahamVF 419 days ago

Yes Ben. And it might well be their last knock out win as well.

E
Euan 431 days ago

Is this writer the ex All Black?

T
Tommaso 432 days ago

For anyone reading the comments, do yourself a favour and go and read the last 15 articles by this guy. Clearly he doesn’t have a single clue what’s going on. Stick to investment banking chap, I can only hope you know what’s going on there 👍🏼

B
Brett 433 days ago

A few weeks ago Mr Ben Smith tweeted that neither NZ nor SA deserve to win the RWC - “we need to bring back integrity to the title of World Champs”.

Another bonehead like comment - what egg on his face today!

NZ and SA are historically the best two teams ever, they have 6 rugby world cups between them.

Mr Smith, form is temporary, class, experience and BMT matter most under knockout rugby.

What a final it should be (NZ and SA still need to beat Eng and Arg to get there) if we see these giants play in the final.

Mr Smith, your immature, arrogant, conceited and pathetic comments make you look the fool.

Do better

B
B.J. Spratt 433 days ago

When you kick for the corner and the rolling maul and expect a try as opposed to a kick for goal the odds of scoring a try is 2/7 or 28%

Sexton kicking stats 76% Dhuuuuur

.

B
B.J. Spratt 433 days ago

All Blacks need some “Adrenalin” this week in their build up to Argentina. After a “Huge” shot during Irish game, the body will be “craving” Just like an addict. Sometimes seen as “feeling a bit flat”
after a huge effort and those great feelings of euphoria.
Must be treated as a team and not as an individual.
This phenomenon has been the downfall of so many top Sport’s Teams.
I gave them no show before the Ireland, now we would have to be a real contender. Who would have thought? Amazing and hopefully
they will “Destroy Argentina” as a build up to the final.

W
Warner 433 days ago

I note coach Farrell and capt Sexton struggled to say All Blacks or NZ at their press conferance , in fact very similar to Simon Middleton and Sarah Hunters press conferance when they lost RWCW and a 30 game winning streak to Blackferns arrogance must be a Northern Hemisphere thing.
By contrast i watched coach Foster mingle and shakehands with everyone on the field and at the press conferance he along with captain Cane praised the Irish for a hard fought game to the end.
Ireland along with Rugbypass and other media outlets played the game in the press while Fosters men trained well stayed away from all the hype and dramas , which showed in game day.
Johnny Sexton was usless his best moment was when he tried to milk another yellow card but failed.
Farrell like father like son .
Ireland got whar they deserved a big wake up call.

M
M 433 days ago

If kiwis lose, we always back the boks!

M
M 433 days ago

Nice article! Don't forget though, nz have revenge in mind against sa, and for that quarter final against France. It will be tough to put in such a great performance 3 weeks in a row, it will be the greatest Nz world cup if we can.

G
G 433 days ago

Very true Ben - today leave this game behind and start from zero towards Argentina

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JW 11 minutes ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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