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Tigers to miss out on top four again – Andy Goode

Matt O'Connor and (inset_ Andy Goode

Matt O’Connor has been talking about the top two being Leicester’s aim this week but their recruitment hasn’t been good enough and I can see them missing out on the play-offs again.

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Last season was the first time that Leicester failed to make the play-offs in 13 years and there is huge pressure on them to return to the top four but they’ve fallen well below their own high standards recently and they face a real battle to get back up there.

Reaching the knockout stages is an absolute minimum requirement at the Tigers but I’m just not sure their squad is strong enough looking at it on paper.

Kyle Eastmond could make a big difference because a few seasons ago at Bath his relationship with George Ford was hugely impressive. I played against them and they were the best 10/12 combination in the Premiership at the time.

If they can replicate that, it could fire Leicester into the top four but he has had a lot of injuries of late and hasn’t managed to produce his best form on a consistent basis. And Matt Toomua was one of their stand-out players last season, so there is enough playmaking ability there.

It was in the forwards where Tigers struggled last season, though, and I’m not sure that their recruitment has really addressed that issue enough. Guy Thompson is a good signing but he is going to be missing for a while with injury and I’m not sure the others will have a huge impact.

Will Spencer was a shining light in a relatively poor Worcester pack and big things are expected of him but I’m not sure he’s going to stamp his authority on games like a Maro Itoje or a Joe Launchbury.

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Dave Denton has still got to prove that he’s a top player consistently because he didn’t set the world on fire at the Warriors and the other recruits are more squad players.

It’s not that those signings are poor players but they aren’t additions that look like they’re going to propel a team into the top four and there will be a heavy reliance on the likes of Ben Youngs and George Ford once more, which is a concern when they spend so much time away with England.

Mark Bakewell will have a bigger effect with the forwards now that he’s had a full pre-season with them and there is star quality in the squad but I’m not sure the second tier of players that have to step up when the internationals are away are quite good enough to make the play-offs.

Leicester Tigers

Ins: Sam Aspland-Robinson (Harlequins), Gaston Cortes (Bristol Bears), David Denton (Worcester Warriors), Kyle Eastmond (Wasps), David Feao (Narbonne), Campese Ma’afu (Ealing Trailfinders), Ross McMillan (Bristol Bears), Will Spencer (Worcester Warriors), Jimmy Stevens (Nottingham), Guy Thompson(Wasps) and James Voss (Jersey Reds)

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Outs: Chris Baumann (released), Dom Barrow (Northampton Saints), Ben Betts (Ealing Trailfinders), Tom Brady (released), George Catchpole (retired), Luke Hamilton (Edinburgh), Joe Maksymiw (Connacht), Nick Malouf (Australia 7s), George McGuigan, Logovi’i Mulipola (both Newcastle Falcons), Afa Pakalani (released), Michele Rizzo (Petrarca), Dominic Ryan (released), Harry Thacker(Bristol Bears) and Kyle Traynor (released)

New Leicester centre Kyle Eastmond. (Photo by Matthew Lewis/Getty Images)

Gloucester’s fortunes will hinge on how well Danny Cipriani fits in and operates within the system and environment at Kingsholm. Putting the incident in Jersey to one side, he is a phenomenal talent but he can also be divisive and it’ll be fascinating to see how the blend of him and a lot of the South African players comes together.

I’ve seen first-hand how he rants and raves at players to try to get the best out of them and sometimes it inspires them but at other times it doesn’t go down quite so well.

Some of the signings they’ve made, such as Franco Mostert, Jaco Kriel and Matt Banahan, have got people thinking that they might be the ones to finish fourth but I still think there can be an underlying mental weakness to Gloucester at times.

That fragility rears its head quite a lot when there’s a lot of expectation on them and people think they should be beating teams that aren’t so star-studded on paper and that’s the main reason that I think they’ll just miss out but I have them making the top six.

Gloucester

Ins: Matt Banahan (Bath), Danny Cipriani (Wasps), Ruan Dreyer (Lions), Todd Gleave (London Irish), Gerbrandt Grobler (Munster), Jaco Kriel (Lions), Franco Marais (Sharks) and Franco Mostert (Lions)

Outs: John Afoa (Bristol Bears), Charlie Beckett (Jersey Reds), Ed Bogue (Cinderford), Elliott Creed (Doncaster Knights), Tom Denton (Ealing Trailfinders), David Halaifonua (Coventry), Richard Hibbard (Dragons), Motu Matu’u (London Irish), Ross Moriarty (Dragons), Alfie North, Cameron Orr (Western Force), Carwyn Penny, Harry Randall (Bristol Bears), Jacob Rowan, Matt Scott (Edinburgh), Andy Symons (Northampton Saints), Jeremy Thrush(Western Force) and Mason Tonks

Danny Cipriani poses for a portrait during the Gloucester Rugby squad photo call for the 2018-19 Gallagher Premiership Rugby season on August 9, 2018 in Gloucester, England. (Photo by Harry Trump/Getty Images)

Missing the likes of Jonathan Joseph and Anthony Watson isn’t going to help Bath’s cause but there is still undoubted quality in their squad. Much has been made of the additions of Joe Cokanasiga, Jamie Roberts and Jackson Willison but I think Will Chudley will make a big difference.

Kahn Fotuali’i has done a great job for them but he’s 36-years-old now and can’t do it week in, week out and Chudley should be able to set the temp from scrum half.

They lost eight of their last 13 league games at the end of last season, though, and that fall away sets alarm bells ringing and it’s hard to justify picking them to finish above the likes of Leicester, Northampton and Gloucester, so I think they could be the ones to miss out on the top six.

Bath

Ins: Will Chudley (Exeter Chiefs), Joe Cokanasiga (London Irish), Alex Davies (Yorkshire Carnegie), Victor Delmas (Colomiers), Ruaridh McConnochie (England 7s), Jamie Roberts (Harlequins), Jacques van Rooyen (Lions) and Jackson Willison (Worcester Warriors)

Outs: Nick Auterac (Harlequins), Matt Banahan (Gloucester), Nathan Charles(Melbourne Rebels), Will Homer (Jersey), Rory Jennings (London Scottish), Shaun Knight (Rouen), Josh Lewis (Dragons), Guy Mercer, Kane Palma-Newport (Colomiers), Ben Tapuai (Harlequins) and Jeff Williams

Newcastle did phenomenally well to finish fourth last season but even they would tell you that they overachieved and took advantage of a host of other clubs performing below the level they have come to expect.

They’ve lost a lot of frontline, experienced players in the pack as well and it’s difficult to sustain it for a second season, especially with Champions Cup commitments and the tough pool that they’re in, so I don’t see them repeating their heroics this time around.

Ally Hogg, Rob Vickers, Scott Lawson, Scott Wilson, Nili Latu, Evan Olmstead and Juan Pablo Socino have all gone and, aside from Logo Mulipola and George McGuigan, I just don’t think they’ve done enough on the recruitment side of things so I see them slipping down the table unfortunately.

When a team does so well unexpectedly there are often knock-on effects the season afterwards because expectations are raised and that’s difficult to live up to. I think they’re going to be struggling to compete for the European places but I hope they don’t end up looking over their shoulder at the bottom few clubs beneath them.

Newcastle Falcons

Ins: Tom Arscott (Rouen), Pedro Bettencourt (Carcassonne), Connor Collett(North Harbour), Rob Farrar (Academy), Guy Graham (Hawick),   Josh Hodge (Academy), Tom Marshall (Academy), Will Montgomery (Academy), George McGuigan (Leicester Tigers), Logovi’i Mulipola (Leicester Tigers), Paul Mullen(Houston SaberCats), Nemani Nagusa (Aurillac) Cameron Nordli-Kelemeti (Academy), Morgan Passman (Academy) and Johnny Williams (London Irish)

Outs: Belisario Agulla (Hindu Club), Nick Civetta (Doncaster Knights), Cam Cowell (Doncaster Knights), Max Davies (Ealing Trailfinders), Ally Hogg (retired), Jake Ilnicki (Yorkshire Carnegie), Nili Latu (Hino Red Dolphins), Scott Lawson (retired), Maxime Mermoz (Toulouse), Evan Olmstead (Auckland), Harrison Orr (Western Force), Juan Pablo Socino (Edinburgh), Ben Sowrey (Wharfedale), D. T. H. van der Merwe (Glasgow Warriors), Rob Vickers (retired) and Craig Willis (Ealing Trailfinders)

Newcastle Falcons director of rugby Dean Richards

I know Sale have a strategic five-year plan with their new owners and pushing for the top six this season will be a part of that. They’ll have the benefit of being able to rest some of their stars in European weeks after missing out on Champions Cup qualification as well, which could help them.

Chris Ashton missing seven weeks is far from ideal but he’ll score tries for fun when he’s back. They haven’t really strengthened the squad in other areas, though, and they don’t look to have the same depth as the teams they’ll be competing with.

I think they’ll build on what they did last season, when they finished eighth, and will be looking upwards. They’re a dark horse when it comes to making the top six but I think they’ll fall just short.

Sale Sharks

Ins: Ewan Ashman (Academy), Chris Ashton (Toulon), Rouban Birch (Academy), Ciaran Booth (Academy), Connor Doherty (Academy), Sam Dugdale (Academy), Cal Ford (Academy),  Joe Jones (Perpignan), Teddy Leatherbarrow (Academy), James Phillips (Bath) and Rohan Janse van Rensburg (Lions), Cameron Redpath (Academy), Bevan Rodd (Academy), Gus Warr (Academy), Kieran Wilkinson (Academy)

Outs: Will Addison (Ulster), Halani Aulika (Grenoble), Josh Charnley (Warrington Wolves), Mike Haley (Munster), TJ Ioane (London Irish) and David Seymour (retired)

Chris Ashton poses for a portrait during the Sale Sharks squad photo call for the 2018-19 Gallagher Premiership Rugby season at AJ Bell Stadium on August 7, 2018 in Salford, England. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
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f
fl 18 minutes ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

"Would I'd be think"

Would I'd be think.


"Well that's one starting point for an error in your reasoning. Do you think that in regards to who should have a say in how it's setup in the future as well? Ie you would care what they think or what might be more fair for their teams (not saying your model doesn't allow them a chance)?"

Did you even read what you're replying to? I wasn't arguing for excluding south africa, I was pointing out that the idea of quantifying someone's fractional share of european rugby is entirely nonsensical. You're the one who was trying to do that.


"Yes, I was thinking about an automatic qualifier for a tier 2 side"

What proportion of european rugby are they though? Got to make sure those fractions match up! 😂


"Ultimately what I think would be better for t2 leagues would be a third comp underneath the top two tournemnts where they play a fair chunk of games, like double those two. So half a dozen euro teams along with the 2 SA and bottom bunch of premiership and top14, some Championship and div 2 sides thrown in."

I don't know if Championship sides want to be commuting to Georgia every other week.


"my thought was just to create a middle ground now which can sustain it until that time has come, were I thought yours is more likely to result in the constant change/manipulation it has been victim to"

a middle ground between the current system and a much worse system?

46 Go to comments
f
fl 32 minutes ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

"Huh? You mean last in their (4 team) pools/regions? My idea was 6/5/4, 6 the max, for guarenteed spots, with a 20 team comp max, so upto 5 WCs (which you'd make/or would be theoretically impossible to go to one league (they'd likely be solely for its participants, say 'Wales', rather than URC specifically. Preferrably). I gave 3 WC ideas for a 18 team comp, so the max URC could have (with a member union or club/team, winning all of the 6N, and Champions and Challenge Cup) would be 9."


That's a lot of words to say that I was right. If (e.g.) Glasgow won the URC and Edinburgh finished 16th, but Scotland won the six nations, Edinburgh would qualify for the Champions Cup under your system.


"And the reason say another URC (for example) member would get the spot over the other team that won the Challenge Cup, would be because they were arguable better if they finished higher in the League."

They would be arguably worse if they didn't win the Challenge Cup.


"It won't diminish desire to win the Challenge Cup, because that team may still be competing for that seed, and if theyre automatic qual anyway, it still might make them treat it more seriously"

This doesn't make sense. Giving more incentives to do well in the Challenge Cup will make people take it more seriously. My system does that and yours doesn't. Under my system, teams will "compete for the seed" by winning the Challenge Cup, under yours they won't. If a team is automatically qualified anyway why on earth would that make them treat it more seriously?


"I'm promoting the idea of a scheme that never needs to be changed again"

So am I. I'm suggesting that places could be allocated according to a UEFA style points sytem, or according to a system where each league gets 1/4 of the spots, and the remaining 1/4 go to the best performing teams from the previous season in european competition.


"Yours will promote outcry as soon as England (or any other participant) fluctates. Were as it's hard to argue about a the basis of an equal share."

Currently there is an equal share, and you are arguing against it. My system would give each side the opportunity to achieve an equal share, but with more places given to sides and leagues that perform well. This wouldn't promote outcry, it would promote teams to take european competition more seriously. Teams that lose out because they did poorly the previous year wouldn't have any grounds to complain, they would be incentivised to try harder this time around.


"This new system should not be based on the assumption of last years results/performances continuing."

That's not the assumption I'm making. I don't think the teams that perform better should be given places in the competition because they will be the best performing teams next year, but because sport should be based on merit, and teams should be rewarded for performing well.


"I'm specifically promoting my idea because I think it will do exactly what you want, increase european rugyb's importance."

how?


"I won't say I've done anything compressive"

Compressive.

46 Go to comments
J
JW 36 minutes ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

Generally disagree with what? The possibility that they would get whitewashed, or the idea they shouldn't gain access until they're good enough?


I think the first is a fairly irrelevant view, decide on the second and then worry about the first. Personally I'd have had them in a third lvl comp with all the bottom dwellers of the leagues. I liked the idea of those league clubs resting their best players, and so being able to lift their standards in the league, though, so not against the idea that T2 sides go straight into Challenge Cup, but that will be a higher level with smaller comps and I think a bit too much for them (not having followed any of their games/performances mind you).

Because I don't think that having the possibility of a team finishing outside the quarter finals to qualify automatically will be a good idea. I'd rather have a team finishing 5th in their domestic league.

fl's idea, if I can speak for him to speed things up, was for it to be semifinalists first, Champions Cup (any that somehow didn't make a league semi), then Challenge's semi finalists (which would most certainly have been outside their league semi's you'd think), then perhaps the quarter finalists of each in the same manner. I don't think he was suggesting whoever next performed best in Europe but didn't make those knockouts (like those round of 16 losers), I doubt that would ever happen.


The problem I mainly saw with his idea (much the same as you see, that league finish is a better indicator) is that you could have one of the best candidates lose in the quarters to the eventual champions, and so miss out for someone who got an easier ride, and also finished lower in the league, perhaps in their own league, and who you beat everytime.

46 Go to comments
J
JW 54 minutes ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

Well I was mainly referring to my thinking about the split, which was essentially each /3 rounded up, but reliant on WCs to add buffer.


You may have been going for just a 16 team league ranking cup?


But yes, those were just ideas for how to select WCs, all very arbitrary but I think more interesting in ways than just going down a list (say like fl's) of who is next in line. Indeed in my reply to you I hinted at say the 'URC' WC spot actually being given to the Ireland pool and taken away from the Welsh pool.


It's easy to think that is excluding, and making it even harder on, a poor performing country, but this is all in context of a 18 or 20 team comp where URC (at least to those teams in the URC) got 6 places, which Wales has one side lingering around, and you'd expect should make. Imagine the spice in that 6N game with Italy, or any other of the URC members though! Everyone talks about SA joining the 6N, so not sure it will be a problem, but it would be a fairly minor one imo.


But that's a structure of the leagues were instead of thinking how to get in at the top, I started from the bottom and thought that it best those teams doing qualify for anything. Then I thought the two comps should be identical in structure. So that's were an even split comes in with creating numbers, and the 'UEFA' model you suggest using in some manner, I thought could be used for the WC's (5 in my 20 team comp) instead of those ideas of mine you pointed out.


I see Jones has waded in like his normal self when it comes to SH teams. One thing I really like about his idea is the name change to the two competitions, to Cup and Shield. Oh, and home and away matches.

46 Go to comments
f
fl 1 hour ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

"Yes I was the one who suggested to use a UEFA style point. And I guessed, that based on the last 5 years we should start with 6 top14, 6 URC and 4 Prem."

Yes I am aware that you suggested it, but you then went on to say that we should initially start with a balance that clearly wasn't derived from that system. I'm not a mind reader, so how was I to work out that you'd arrived at that balance by dint of completely having failed to remember the history of the competition.


"Again, I was the one suggesting that, but you didn't like the outcome of that."

I have no issues with the outcome of that, I had an issue with a completely random allocation of teams that you plucked out of thin air.

Interestingly its you who now seem to be renouncing the UEFA style points system, because you don't like the outcome of reducing URC representation.


"4 teams for Top14, URC and Prem, 3 teams for other leagues and the last winner, what do you think?"

What about 4 each + 4 to the best performing teams in last years competition not to have otherwise qualified? Or what about a UEFA style system where places are allocated to leagues on the basis of their performance in previous years' competitions?

There's no point including Black Lion if they're just going to get whitewashed every year, which I think would be a possibility. At most I'd support 1 team from the Rugby Europe Super Cup, or the Russian Championship being included. Maybe the best placed non-Israeli team and the Russian winners could play off every year for the spot? But honestly I think its best if they stay limited to the Challenge Cup for now.

46 Go to comments
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