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Clearly the unluckiest player to miss out on England – Andy Goode
By Andy Goode
There may have been some unwanted upheaval behind the scenes but Steve Borthwick’s squad selection for the Autumn Nations Series shows there is continuity on the field.
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Tom Willis is clearly the unluckiest to miss out, having made the most carries (76) and beaten the most defenders (27) in the Premiership this season, but we know league form isn’t always recognised at international level.
We’ve had the Zach Mercer debate for a number of years and the Gloucester man remains in decent form but the Saracens number eight only has to talk to team-mate Ben Earl about how hard it is to break into the England back row equation.
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Earl has started the last 12 Tests at number eight but he hadn’t started a single game for his country 14 months ago despite tearing it up consistently in the Premiership and sometimes the balance of the back row counts against that type of back rower.
Willis couldn’t have done any more and if you were picking purely on form, he would be starting at the back of the scrum. Alex Dombrandt has been missing since the opening round through injury and is fortunate to be included ahead of him but has credit in the bank.
If you ask fans to pick an England starting XV, then most would have Chandler Cunningham-South at blindside. Hopefully he does get plenty of gametime in the coming weeks but I think we’re likely to see Ollie Chessum picked there ahead of him.
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Borthwick favours that almost additional second row in the number six jersey and for that reason I’m surprised Ted Hill isn’t in the squad. He’s a big unit, has stolen the second most lineouts in the Premiership this season and filled in at second row last week too.
In the backs, you could certainly make a case for the likes of Gabriel Ibitoye or Lennox Anyanwu to be in there on form but there are only so many places and I’m not sure who would drop out.
I think Borthwick will be doing everything he can to get Henry Slade fit to face the All Blacks in a couple of weeks’ time but if he isn’t, I’d be going for Alex Lozowski to fill his boots as he’s in a similar mould and has been ripping it up for Saracens.
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Tommy Freeman is probably the next best option to fill in at outside centre given he’s starting there for Northampton this weekend and played a bit there last season, with Luke Northmore and Elliot Daly the other alternatives.
George Ford has been named as an extra man as he continues his rehab from a quad injury but I think England need to move forward with Marcus Smith as the main man anyway and Fin Smith as back-up.
The Harlequins fly half was due to be the starter ahead of the 2024 Six Nations before getting injured and he had the shirt in the summer against the All Blacks and Japan so Ford’s experience is clearly valuable but I don’t think he’d be starting anyway.
Alex Mitchell will be a big miss in the halfbacks because of the tempo he brings and it’s a real shame he’s picked up an injury because he’s nailed down that number nine jersey after years of Ben Youngs and Danny Care dominating.
The return of Jack van Poortvliet is a bonus in that department but Ben Spencer might be the one to grab the jersey by the scruff of the neck now after putting in stellar displays for Bath week in, week out in recent years.
It is a concern that the likes of Slade, Tom Curry, Sam Underhill and a few others haven’t got much rugby under their belts. You can’t have too many starting against New Zealand who have barely played but a couple of big, established stars might be ok to do so.
I am surprised there aren’t just a couple more younger faces included just to give them a bit of exposure, whilst not being involved in the match day 23, but the evolution of the squad is something Borthwick is going to have to address again in the next 12 months.
Skipper Jamie George turns 34 before the start of the Autumn Nations Series, Dan Cole is already 37 and Joe Marler and Elliot Daly aren’t likely to make it through to another World Cup. That doesn’t mean they should be jettisoned now but when is the time going to be right?
Luke Cowan-Dickie has been brought back at hooker rather than opting for Gabriel Oghre, who got the nod in the summer, so this is a squad for right now rather than planning for the future and England do have an opportunity to lay down a marker next month.
They came close to winning a Test in New Zealand in July but ultimately the tour ended in disappointment. England haven’t beaten the All Blacks at Twickenham for over a decade since 2012 and I don’t think there’s ever been a better chance for them to do so.
That might sound disrespectful to a team that just beat England 2-0 in a series but it’s more of a reflection on how strong visiting New Zealand sides have been in the past and there’s no doubt this is a rebuilding phase for the All Blacks.
England don’t face New Zealand at Twickenham very often, for financial reasons as much as any other to be blunt, and that victory back in 2012 was a real surprise. Prior to that, 2002 was England’s last win over the All Blacks on home turf and we know what that team went on to achieve.
The game on November 2 is the key fixture for England too, not only because it’s the first one and will set the tone but because an autumn of two wins and two defeats would be a significant disappointment.
Coming away with just one victory would be catastrophic so defeat to New Zealand would put a fair bit of pressure on the game against Joe Schmidt’s Wallabies a week later, with the World Champion Springboks and Japan to come thereafter.
It does look like Borthwick has been forced to look at himself after Aled Walters and Felix Jones have opted to leave the England setup and he is doing that so it’ll be interesting to see if there are any noticeable changes with Dan Tobin and Joe El Abd coming in and Richard Wigglesworth taking on a more senior role.
Ultimately, that will get brought up if England struggle and be forgotten about to a certain extent if it’s a successful autumn campaign. The squad selection shows the continuity Borthwick is after and it’s certainly one capable of winning at least three games next month.
Nothing against the guy and clearly a very good player for Quins, but what “credit in the bank” does Alex Dombrandt have for England? Tom Willis fills a “ball carrier in the tight exchanges” shaped hole in the England pack, and Alex D has never quite got it done in an England shirt. I get that some continuity in selection is needed, but given that Alex D would probably be unlikely in the match day squad, I don’t see the downside to give a younger player who has been in (arguably) better form some exposure.
@AndyGoode Big Jim will have a good laugh at this headline. Unluckiest player to miss out on England - Andy Goode. I know you can probably still pass, kick and tackle but what about the running. Also, how many passes, kicks or tackles could you manage? We would be worried that the medical staff would end up working overtime! Maybe we can find a different role for you?