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‘Took the Springboks…’: Why Scotland are favourites for Australia clash

Scotland's wing Darcy Graham dives over the line to score the try to equal Scotland's try-scoring record during the Autumn Nations Series International rugby union test match between Scotland and Portugal at Murrayfield Stadium in Edinburgh on November 16, 2024. (Photo by ANDY BUCHANAN / AFP) (Photo by ANDY BUCHANAN/AFP via Getty Images)

Two-time Rugby World Cup winner Tim Horan considers Scotland the “favourite” for this weekend’s Autumn Nations Series clash with Australia. The Wallabies are unbeaten on their Spring Tour but will need to win at Murrayfield to keep their grand slam hopes alive.

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With coach Joe Schmidt at the helm, the Wallabies have generated some serious buzz in Australia after recording statement wins over England 42-37 at Twickenham’s Allianz Stadium and a 52-20 demolition of Warren Gatland’s Wales at the Principality Stadium.

The British and Irish Lions Series is just around the corner, so this end-of-year tour was always going to be a crucial series of markers for the Wallabies. At least so far, the men in gold have passed every test that’s come their way, but it doesn’t get any easier.

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In the most recent meeting between the sides in 2022, Blair Kinghorn missed a last-minute penalty as Australia claimed a tight win at Murrayfield. But the Scots have won a majority of the last five Tests between the two proud rugby sides at their famed Edinburgh fortress.

While history won’t necessarily count for much once play gets underway in the early hours of Monday morning (AEDT), some may consider Australia the underdogs – as does Wallabies legend Tim Horan who expressed that view this week.

“Even though the Wallabies have won their last two Test matches, Scotland are favourite, and probably deserve to be where they are on the rankings,” Horan explained on Stan Sports’ Rugby Heaven. “They took the Springboks to the end.

“… You get confidence by winning, you get confidence by making sure your patterns of play are right so everyone’s confident going into this Wallaby (game). They’ll play, they won’t sit back and try and stop the Wallabies, the Wallabies will have to stop Scotland.”

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Scotland only won two of their five matches during this year’s Six Nations, and they were a slender 27-26 win over Wales in Cardiff and a Calcutta Cup triumph over the English 30-21. While they didn’t win another game, Gregor Townsend’s men still put on a show.

The Scots pushed international heavyweights France and Ireland close, and also put up a valiant fight against Italy’s Azzurri. More recently, they got the better of Fiji and performed admirably during a defeat to the two-time defending world champion Springboks.

Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins
3
Draws
0
Wins
2
Average Points scored
26
19
First try wins
60%
Home team wins
40%

“They’ve got Finn Russell, as is Darcy Graham the way he’s been playing. They’ll want to get the ball wide Scotland and attack the Wallabies out wide in that 15 channel,” Horan had said earlier.

“The way that Gregor Townsend coaches the team, it’s quick ruck ball, gets some switch, get across the advantage line so they actually play quite a similar way to the Wallabies.

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Shepherd: “Probably 12 or 13 of the guys that are going to be in the 23 this weekend, they play for the Glasgow Warriors… these guys are playing 30-plus games together. They’re very familiar with each other, the style of game they play.

“Gregor Townsend, of course, former coach of the Glasgow Warriors as well. It’s a familiarity that they’ve got and they’re going to be a tough team to beat. They’re certainly one of the most improved nations out of the tier ones.”

Go behind the scenes of both camps during the British and Irish Lions tour of South Africa in 2021. Binge watch exclusively on RugbyPass TV now 

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Comments

3 Comments
S
SK 3 hours ago

If the Wallabies can cope with the intensity of the Scottish game theres no reason why they cant win. Scotland give teams the hurry up through the speed and quickness of their game and they can rack up alot of points really quickly but just as they can hustle they can also dive and at some point they begin to lose focus and intensity. Wales came back in the second half earlier this year, the Boks racked up 10 points in the final 10 minutes and Italy, Ireland and France took advantage of Scottish lulls in their games to win their matches. Aussies must make hay while the sun is shining to win.

m
mJ 3 hours ago

Of course they are favourites but Scotland will now be seeing the Wallabies in a different light. Scotland starting team has had a week off also so should be fresh. But Australia has a couple of wins, some form, better cohesion and they’re getting to grips with the Schmidt game plan. Should be a cracker of a match.

r
rs 3 hours ago

bookies concur with timmy. sportsbet odds scotland paying $1.68 for the win, wallabies $2.45.

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JW 2 hours ago
'Passionate reunion of France and New Zealand shows Fabien Galthie is wrong to rest his stars'

Ok, managed to read the full article..

... New Zealand’s has only 14 and the professional season is all over within four months. In France, club governance is the responsibility of an independent organisation [the Ligue Nationale de Rugby or LNR] which is entirely separate from the host union [the Fédération Française de Rugby or FFR]. Down south New Zealand Rugby runs the provincial and the national game.

That is the National Provincial Championship, a competition of 14 representative union based teams run through the SH international window and only semi professional (paid only during it's running). It is run by NZR and goes for two and a half months.


Super Rugby is a competition involving 12 fully professional teams, of which 5 are of New Zealand eligibility, and another joint administered team of Pacific Island eligibility, with NZR involvement. It was a 18 week competition this year, so involved (randomly chosen I believe) extra return fixtures (2 or 3 home and away derbys), and is run by Super Rugby Pacific's own independent Board (or organisation). The teams may or may not be independently run and owned (note, this does not necessarily mean what you think of as 'privately owned').


LNR was setup by FFR and the French Government to administer the professional game in France. In New Zealand, the Players Association and Super Rugby franchises agreed last month to not setup their own governance structure for professional rugby and re-aligned themselves with New Zealand Rugby. They had been proposing to do something like the English model, I'm not sure how closely that would have been aligned to the French system but it did not sound like it would have French union executive representation on it like the LNR does.

In the shaky isles the professional pyramid tapers to a point with the almighty All Blacks. In France the feeling for country is no more important than the sense of fierce local identity spawned at myriad clubs concentrated in the southwest. Progress is achieved by a nonchalant shrug and the wide sweep of nuanced negotiation, rather than driven from the top by a single intense focus.

Yes, it is pretty much a 'representative' selection system at every level, but these union's are having to fight for their existence against the regime that is NZR, and are currently going through their own battle, just as France has recently as I understand it. A single focus, ala the French game, might not be the best outcome for rugby as a whole.


For pure theatre, it is a wonderful article so far. I prefer 'Ntamack New Zealand 2022' though.

The young Crusader still struggles to solve the puzzle posed by the shorter, more compact tight-heads at this level but he had no problem at all with Colombe.

It was interesting to listen to Manny during an interview on Maul or Nothing, he citied that after a bit of banter with the All Black's he no longer wanted one of their jersey's after the game. One of those talks was an eye to eye chat with Tamaiti Williams, there appear to be nothing between the lock and prop, just a lot of give and take. I thought TW angled in and caused Taylor to pop a few times, and that NZ were lucky to be rewarded.

f you have a forward of 6ft 8ins and 145kg, and he is not at all disturbed by a dysfunctional set-piece, you are in business.

He talked about the clarity of the leadership that helped alleviate any need for anxiety at the predicaments unfolding before him. The same cannot be said for New Zealand when they had 5 minutes left to retrieve a match winning penalty, I don't believe. Did the team in black have much of a plan at any point in the game? I don't really call an autonomous 10 vehicle they had as innovative. I think Razor needs to go back to the dealer and get a new game driver on that one.

Vaa’i is no match for his power on the ground. Even in reverse, Meafou is like a tractor motoring backwards in low gear, trampling all in its path.

Vaa'i actually stops him in his tracks. He gets what could have been a dubious 'tackle' on him?

A high-level offence will often try to identify and exploit big forwards who can be slower to reload, and therefore vulnerable to two quick plays run at them consecutively.

Yes he was just standing on his haunches wasn't he? He mentioned that in the interview, saying that not only did you just get up and back into the line to find the opposition was already set and running at you they also hit harder than anything he'd experienced in the Top 14. He was referring to New Zealands ultra-physical, burst-based Super style of course, which he was more than a bit surprised about. I don't blame him for being caught out.


He still sent the obstruction back to the repair yard though!

What wouldn’t the New Zealand rugby public give to see the likes of Mauvaka and Meafou up front..

Common now Nick, don't go there! Meafou showed his Toulouse shirt and promptly got his citizenship, New Zealand can't have him, surely?!?


As I have said before with these subjects, really enjoy your enthusiasm for their contribution on the field and I'd love to see more of their shapes running out for Vern Cotter and the like styled teams.

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