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Draws are interesting. They’re usually previews of a tournament that don’t actually go remotely as you expected. This is true even in sports that don’t draw it two and a half years early, with barely half of the teams actually qualified.
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Nonetheless, we feel we have pretty good grasp of who will be breathing a sigh of relief, and who will be shaking their fist at the heavens, so let’s dive in.
Winners
5. Japan – A shot at the second round
While I don’t really mean to rag on Scotland, even their most optimistic fans will admit that their status as one of the world’s top five rugby nations is a historically odd situation.
2019’s world cup hosts will be itching to make the second round for the first time in their history. Further, with South Africa having been conquered in 2015, an exhausted Cherry Blossoms side fell to Scotland four days later, laying fine groundwork for a revenge story.
Since that story would be damaged by defeat at the hands of the nation that gave Phil Godman a test career, Japan beating Scotland would rather be for the good of rugby.
4. Ireland – Aiming to win the group
They may have lost to an up and coming Scotland at Murrayfield this year, but expectations of the Scots expanding past a tough away fixture were cooled by the sudden bucket of icewater that was their 40-point loss at Twickenham.
While they didn’t win back the six nations, the Irish are high on confidence after ending their second set of opponents’ 18-match winning streaks and will be odds on to win this group.
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Mostly, though, they’re pleased to avoid Argentina.
3. South Africa – Getting New Zealand over and done with
South Africa have never before faced their greatest rivals in the group stage. They are more used to either avoiding them or getting knocked out by them, as in the 2015 and 2003 tournaments. The one time the Springboks won against New Zealand in a world cup was in a final, which you may remember from that time we learned Matt Damon is the world’s greatest player.
Point being, since the Boks are unlikely to be in their mid-cup-cycle slump for the whole of the next two years, they will judge their draw based on when they play New Zealand, and even if they get thrashed by that group stage match, they will take avoiding them in the semis and quarters as fairly priced. Argentina could have been a threat, but Italy won’t be.
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2. Fiji – Taking their spot back
Though the rugby fans in the proud nation of Oceania 1 must have waited with bated breath for their ball to be drawn on Wednesday, it’s extremely likely that the spot with that name will go to the current leaders of the Pacific Nations Cup.
Fiji have twice made the second round and after a disappointing 2011 tournament, were left on the qualifying outskirts for two successive tournaments including a stint in 2015’s infamous Group of Death. This time around, automatic qualification as befits Fiji’s top 10 rank is very much on the cards if they can assert themselves against the Georgians.
1. Australia – Beating up the Welsh
You may have heard over the last few months that Australian rugby is in crisis. This is because Australian rugby happens to be constantly compared to New Zealand, both domestically and internationally, which is the only comparison that they consistently lose.
The Aussies will have no fear of Wales. In 24 Tests in the professional era, just two have resulted in someone called Evans being pleased with the situation. The only team they fear is the All Blacks, who have knocked out their cousins across the Tasman in three out of the last four tournaments. But if Australia win their group, they will likely avoid the kiwis before the final.
Losers
5. Georgia – Facing Fiji
Despite having a dozen burly props scattered around the Top 14, Georgia are unlikely to press for the knockout stages having never defeated a tier 1 team.
Aiming for third place, a favourable draw would have left them needing to beat semi-professionals or their European rivals to gain automatic qualifications. So a grimace would have gone around the players’ faces when it fell to them to face the Pacific Nations cup champions.
At least, they may have been grimacing. It’s hard to tell through the beards.
4. USA – Uncertain foreign policy
The Americans find themselves in an unfortunate situation. Also, their rugby world cup draw is a bit weird.
Should this summer’s playoff against Canada result in the Eagles’ sixth successive victory over their northern neighbours, they will find themselves in a pool with not only the favoured quarter-finalists. Argentina, a nation whose second team regularly defeat the Americans mid season will be there to take over hopes of a prized third place and qualifying spot.
It is very hard for either North American side to not qualify – even losing the Americas 2 playoff against the top South American team would allow them to try their luck in the repechage. So losing the Americas 1 place to Canada, and going into a pool with Georgia and Fiji to compete for third with, might be a work of tactical genius.
‘Whoops, I appear to have accidentally kicked the ball over my own try line. How embarrassing would it be for someone to run onto that ball and score. No, don’t get up.”
3. England – The return of the Group of Death
The 2015 world cup is an event that this English writer has determined did not happen, and as a result, we have no evidence to suggest that a group with three of the top nine teams in it is in any way a danger to them.
More seriously, England’s group isn’t quite as tough as the previous one, Wales having a much more evenly matched record against their old rivals than the Argentinians do. But unlike 2015 this pool contains no ‘relief’ match against Uruguay, with Samoa and USA being the most likely lower tier opponents. With two must-win hard tests, the physicality of the Samoans and the pace of the USA they will find no pushovers.
2. Italy – Better luck next time
Yes, Italy beat South Africa in November. No, it won’t happen again any time soon. The world’s 15th ranked and sort-of-tier-one-but-not-really nation would much rather have a go at former Six Nations spoon winners Wales, France or Scotland.
The only thing keeping L’Azzurri from the top spot here is that there are no dangerous Islander sides in pool B to take their automatic qualifying place. So they can at least lick their wounds, mourn the probable loss of Sergio Parisse and return in 2023. Probably drawn against New Zealand again.
1. France – Hernandez-induced trauma
Nobody wants to play Argentina, is the point I’m making. I’m sure you get it. And ever since the French lost twice to Juan Martin Hernandez’ inspired performances at home in 2007, the Pumas have been a dangerous hazard at world cups.
Since then, the Argentinians have looked somewhat lacklustre in end of year internationals, but they have officially joined the top brass and recorded wins over Australia and South Africa. France have gone downhill, struggling to break the top half of the six nations, and could easily have been in the third pot themselves were it not for a bizarre 100th-minute finish against Wales.
While England will wince at the number of tough games in Pool C, Les Bleus will be in real danger of the early exit.
They’ll probably win the whole thing.
