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'Trending downwards': Shocking stats show All Blacks' massive decline in key area

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

The All Blacks must improve in one crucial area if they are to avoid a third straight loss against the Pumas on Saturday, says former All Black and M?ori All Blacks coach Tabai Matson.

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Speaking on Sky Sport‘s The Breakdown, Matson highlighted the All Blacks’ concerning decline in red zone attacking efficiency – in other words, the All Blacks’ ability to score when inside the opposition’s 22 – in recent years, but especially in the last two games.

Over the last three years, the All Blacks have scored 32.8 per cent of the time on average when in the red zone, according to Sky Sport‘s statistics. That’s almost scoring once in every three visits to the opposition 22.

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In comparison, the Wallabies and Pumas’ three-year average in that department was 27.1 per cent and 22.8 per cent respectively.

But despite the All Blacks’ relative superiority over their Tri Nations rivals, they were still “trending downwards” coming into this year in an area that has traditionally been a strength for past New Zealand sides, says Matson.

“The key thing we took into this year was we’re trending downwards. What we talked about is can we change that moving forward.

“At this level of the game, we’ve seen over the last four-five weeks, taking those few opportunities is really critical. And we didn’t the last time we played against Argentina.”

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The All Blacks seemed to be bucking the trend in the first three matches against the Wallabies. Red zone attack efficiency went from 21.4 per cent in the shaky first draw then rose to 50 per cent in the second test, followed by a whopping 74.3 per cent in the 43-5 thrashing of Australia at ANZ Stadium.

However, that trend quickly went back down in Ian Foster’s first two defeats as All Blacks coach to 28.6 per cent in the fourth Wallabies test and a meager 10 per cent against Argentina.

Matson believes part of the reasons for the decline has been the All Blacks’ inability to deal with pressure and their difficulty in breaking through the opposition’s disciplined and tight defence.

The Pumas used suffocating defensive tactics, labeled “the blue wall” by some, which included not contesting at the breakdown and at times spreading almost every player across the defensive line without a fullback.

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“We’ve got five in our ruck, they’ve got 15 on their feet and we wondered why we felt like we couldn’t get through and it looked like we were one-dimensional with some of the chat we had after the games.”

So how do the All Blacks improve in the must-win clash against the Pumas? It comes down to execution, says Matson.

“[Argentina] did a really good job at the lineout. Defensive lineout wise, they had the Wallabies in trouble and they had us in trouble.

“So for us, those few opportunities we get, in particular in the red zone, we have to take them. 10 per cent won’t be enough.”

The first indication of Foster and the coaching team’s thought process heading into the game on the weekend will be revealed tomorrow when the All Blacks name their team to face Argentina.

The All Blacks will face the Pumas in Newcastle at 9.45pm on Saturday.

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charlie 865 days ago

The blight on Union is League. Ian McIntosh the Natal Sharks and briefly Bok coach visited Australia on the invitation of Tommy Lawton and Rod McQueen and saw how League defensive lines were set. The oxygen of Union was then sucked out of all attack structures and defence became paramount. A tackle will not win a match - or will it. Jonny Wilkinson was tackled out of a clash with France by the great Serge Betsen. The game is about ad-line and space. If you play in the opposition space, they will give up penalties and points. Foster is trying to find space but his backs in particular are giving up scrums and penalties. France now has a large, bullying pack with an outstanding No9 who keeps them going forward. 2023 will be their home World Cup win.

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Tom 5 hours ago
Will Bristol's daredevil 'Bears-ball' deliver the trophy they crave?

Also a Bristol fan and echo your sentiments.


I love watching Bristol but their approach will only get them so far I think. Exeter played like this when they first got promoted to the prem and had intermittent success, it wasn't until they wised up and played a more balanced game that they became a consistently top side.


I really want Bristol to continue playing this brand of rugby and I don't mind them running it from under their posts but I don't think they need to do it every single time. They need to be just a little bit more selective about when and where on the pitch they play. Every game they put themselves under so much needless pressure by turning the ball over under their posts trying to do kamikaze moves when it's not required. By all means run it from your goal line if there is a chance for a counter attack, we all want to see Bristol running in 100m tries from under their posts but I think until they learn when to do it and when to be pragmatic, they are unlikely to win the premiership.


Defense has been a real positive from Bristol, they've shown a lot of improvement there... And I will say that I think this kamikaze strategy they employ is a very good one for a struggling side and could be employed by Newcastle. It's seems to have turned around Gloucester's fortunes. The big advantage is even if you don't have the biggest and best players, what you have is cohesion. This is why Scotland keep battering England. England have better individuals but they look muddled as a team, trying to play a mixed strategy under coaches who lack charisma, the team has no identity. Scotland come out and give it full throttle from 1-15 even if they struggle against the top sides, sides like England and Wales who lack that identity drown under the relentless will and synergy of the Scots. If Newcastle did the same they could really surprise some people, I know the weather is bad up there but it hasn't bothered the Scots. Bristol can learn from Scotland too, Pat is on to something when he says the following but Scotland don't play test matches like headless chickens. They still play with the same level of clarity and ambition Bristol do but they are much better at picking their moments. They needed to go back to this mad game to get their cohesion back after a couple of seasons struggling but I hope they get a bit wiser from matches like Leinster and La Rochelle.


“If there’s clarity on what you’re trying to do as a team you can win anything.”

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