'Two poor games away from being fired - that's the reality'

NZ, Australia, England, Ireland, and France are all timing their campaigns for RWC 2027, and Argentina, Scotland and Wales will be much improved. Rassie will keep building and evolving things, but he knows that it does not take much to derail any team on any given day.

It will be fun to watch.

Get Kiss, Larkham or McKellar in to coach Wales when Gatland gets bombed. A stint in Wales worked for the two great coaches of the All Blacks!

An essay for @OJohn with love from South Africa.

OJohn keeps banging on about kiwis and Saffers and everyone else seeking to undermine and bring down Australian rugby… Blah, Blah, Blah. It’s boring and not worth responding too 99 days out of 100.

He misses the point completely that Australians either are or are not the masters of their own destiny. So to blame anyone else but themselves for what the state of Australian rugby is in - is hypocritical.

But recently, Australia has shown signs of life. Personally, I always believed they would be back at some point. At the beginning of this year I predicted that the wallabies would bounce back this year. I predicted that they would overtake England in the world rankings. I am predicting that they could finish second in the RC, could win the Lions series and could make it to a RWC final at home.

I tend to get ahead of myself when I’m excited... Ask my wife. But forgive me for getting excited about the Wallabies looking good! Is it so bad?

Like OJohn, I believe that Australia’s lands abound with natures gifts, including athletic specimens across any sporting code the Aussies compete in. It’s one of the reasons most of us don’t like Aussies. They win sh1t. Regularly. And look smug when they do...

But back to OJohn. And his banging on about the need for Australia to have an Australian coach. Here are a few highlights of his argument:

Several times I've given a list of half a dozen Australian coaches who would be more Australian than Schmidt and just as successful.

Tell me which Australian coaches would be acceptable to coach the All Blacks ......?

Because South Africans and Kiwis and Welshmen and Scotsman are all s.... scared that if an immensely talented and athletic team like Australia is ever able to harness nationalistic Australian passion with an Australian coach, you'll all be s.c.r.e.w.e.d.

And then finally – the list of 6:

Ewen McKenzie, Less Kiss, Stephen Larkham, Jim McKay, David Nucifora, Scott Wisenthal, Ben Mowen, Rod Kafer, Mick Byrne, John Manetti, Jason Gilmore, Dan McKellar.

Plus, a special request:

Keep in mind Rod MacQueen never won a Super Rugby title before he was appointed Wallaby coach but he ended up the greatest rugby coach the world has ever seen. Better than Erasmus even. Who is probably the next best.

Right. I don’t care about the tinfoil hat theories. I want to assess OJohn’s list and determine whether any of them fit the mold of a Rod Macqueen.

Like Rod Macqueen the following world cup winning coaches never won a Super Rugby Title:

·       David Kirk, 1987 (17 appearances for New Zealand)

·       Kitch Kristie, 1995

·       Rod Macqueen, 1999

·       Clive Woodward, 2003 (21 Appearance for England)

·       Jake White, 2007 (School Teacher)

·       Graham Henry, 2011 (School Teacher)

·       Steve Hansen, 2015 (Policeman)

·       Rassie Erasmus, 2019 (36 Appearances for South Africa)

·       Jacques Nienaber, 2023 (Physiotherapist).

I couldn't find out what Rod or Kitch did other than coach.

The only coach who has won a Super title and a World Cup?

·       Bob Dwyer, 1991 (A Tahs man wouldn’t you know!)

In fact coaches that have won super rugby titles have not won world cups. Robbie Deans. Heyneke Meyer to name just two.

I know I’m being childish, but I needed to bring this list in somehow because it’s quite obvious that whatever these coaches did before they became international level coaches is largely immaterial. Or is it?

Interestingly Ewan McKenzie (A Tah Man!) has won a Super title. And despite being a Tah Man made it into OJohn’s list. That’s two strikes for Ewan Mckenzie based on OJohn’s criteria so far. Not to mention his 50% win rate as head coach of the Wallabies between 2013 and 2014 (and the laundry list of off the field fcuk ups that swirled around the team at the time).

So Ewan is out.

I find it interesting that, as we speak, eight out of the ten top ranked men’s teams are coached by former international players:

1.      South Africa, Rassie Erasmus (36 appearances for South Africa)

2.      Ireland, Andy Farrell (8 appearances for England)

3.      New Zealand, Scott Robertson (23 appearances for New Zealan)

4.      France, Fabien Galthie (64 appearances for France)

5.      Argentina, Felipe Contemponi (87 appearances for Argentina)

6.      Scotland, Gregor Townsend (82 appearances for Scotland)

7.      England, Steve Borthwick (57 appearances for England)

8.      Australia, Joe Schmidt (School Teacher)

9.      Fiji, Michael Byrne (Aussie Rules Player)

10.  Italy, Gonzalo Quesada (38 appearances for Argentina).

It would appear as though we have entered an era where successful international coaches, largely, have played rugby at international level in the professional era. Or are ex school teachers. Much like Jake White and Graham Henry! Or a policeman.

Back to OJohn’s List. That leaves us with:

·       Less Kiss, (I like the look of)

·       Stephen Larkham, (I like the look of)

·       Jim McKay, (Very little to write home about)

·       David Nucifora, (Too old)

·       Scott Wisenthal, (I literally can’t find anything on him on the Google).

·       Ben Mowen, (Too young, no coaching experience)

·       Rod Kafer, (No coaching experience)

·       Mick Byrne, (He’s coaching the Fijians, Aussie rules!)

·       John Manetti, (Can’t find him on the google)

·       Jason Gilmore, (Seems to be working through the ranks, coaching Wallabies A)

·       Dan McKellar, (Not much to write home about, but could be an option).

Applying some logic, I would say the following are viable options based on age, experience in coaching AND the fact that they have played rugby for Australia in the professional era:

·       Less Kiss, (I like the look of)

·       Stephen Larkham, (I like the look of)

·       Jason Gilmore, (Seems to be working through the ranks, coaching Wallabies A)

After having done all this research, I think it’s fair to say that none of these three have the same pedigree as Joe Schmidt, the teacher. Who took a sh1tty Ireland team to no.1. Won a few 6 Nations and helped get the All Blacks to a world cup final in 2023.

Joe’s the best option for now. But if Kiss, Larkham and Gilmore are the business for the future for Australia get them in now as assistants to Joe and stop moaning!!

Errors and Ommissions accepted. Mispelling of names is OJohn's fault.

Whoever the Welsh head coach is, they are going to need at least another 12 months to start showing real success.

It would be crazy to move on from Gatland, IMV.

England are playing France in Twickenham in the 2025 6N.