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USA coach 'at a loss for words' after World Cup qualifying upset

Marcel Brache. (Photo by Francois Nel - World Rugby/World Rugby via Getty Images)

While there’s no question that Canada are not quite the mid-tier rugby superpower of the past, they’ve proven that they’re still capable of footing with the tier-two big boys after scoring an important win in Saturday’s Rugby World Cup qualifier.

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Canada squared off with their traditional rivals, the USA, in Newfoundland and while they entered the game as rank outsiders, they pulled off a 34-21 comeback win in the first of a two-legged series to decide North America’s top seed for the remaining qualifying matches.

Canada were once far and away the top national side in North America – and second only to Argentina in the Americas region.

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They’ve been a constant presence at the Rugby World Cup since the tournament’s inception in 1987, even making the quarter-finals of the 1991 competition in the United Kingdom.

Looking locally, until 2014, USA had only mustered 12 wins over Canada from 51 attempts.

Since then, however, there’s been a massive shift in the balance of power in North America. The Eagles had gone undefeated against the Canucks for seven years – until this weekend.

Without some of their foreign-based stars like Tyler Ardron, few expected Canada to be able to compete with their opposition – but that wasn’t the case at all.

USA struggled to find much continuity early in the game but looked to have the upper-hand at the set-piece, and held a 14-10 lead at halftime. From that point on, however, almost everything went the way of Canada – and they built an insurmountable 20-point lead.

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The Eagles did manage a late consolation try, which could prove important down the track.

Next weekend, the two sides will again square off – this time in America – with the overall winner of the two-match series (based on wins, then points differential) progressing through to face Uruguay to decide which side will qualify for the Rugby World Cup as Americas 1.

The losing side still has a shot at qualifying, however, but the pathway becomes considerably more convoluted.

“[I’m] pretty much at a loss for words,” said Eagles coach Gary Gold after the game. “[It was a] completely and totally unacceptable performance. Very disappointing considering we had a very good start.

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“We were dominant at the set piece against these guys and ultimately we were the masters of our own destiny. This was 100% our own doing.

“The challenge has been laid. We knew that this was going to be a very good Canadian team. And they came out and proved it. Just really disappointing all around and we’ve got our work cut out for us. We have to step up to the plate next week if we want to be serious about qualifying for Rugby World Cup.”

Canada coach Kingsley Jones was cautiously optimistic after the surprise win.

“We have a 13-point lead at the moment and 80 minutes to play. Would I have signed for that this morning? I probably would have,” he said.

“We’ll take that but we know it’s going to be a different challenge next week, a big challenge. We need to make sure we enjoy the win because they’re few and far between with the level of teams that we’ve been playing recently, and we can take some confidence from it.”

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J
JW 2 hours ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

It is now 22 years since Michael Lewis published his groundbreaking treatise on winning against the odds

I’ve never bothered looking at it, though I have seen a move with Clint as a scout/producer. I’ve always just figured it was basic stuff for the age of statistics, is that right?

Following the Moneyball credo, the tailor has to cut his cloth to the material available

This is actually a great example of what I’m thinking of. This concept has abosolutely nothing to do with Moneyball, it is simple being able to realise how skillsets tie together and which ones are really revelant.


It sounds to me now like “moneyball” was just a necessity, it was like scienctest needing to come up with some random experiment to make all the other world scholars believe that Earth was round. The American sporting scene is very unique, I can totally imagine one of it’s problems is rich old owners not wanting to move with the times and understand how the game has changed. Some sort of mesiah was needed to convert the faithful.


While I’m at this point in the article I have to say, now the NRL is a sport were one would stand up and pay attention to the moneyball phenom. Like baseball, it’s a sport of hundreds of identical repetitions, and very easy to data point out.

the tailor has to cut his cloth to the material available and look to get ahead of an unfair game in the areas it has always been strong: predictive intelligence and rugby ‘smarts’

Actually while I’m still here, Opta Expected Points analysis is the one new tool I have found interesting in the age of data. Seen how the random plays out as either likely, or unlikely, in the data’s (and algorithms) has actually married very closely to how I saw a lot of contests pan out.


Engaging return article Nick. I wonder, how much of money ball is about strategy as apposed to picks, those young fella’s got ahead originally because they were picking players that played their way right? Often all you here about is in regards to players, quick phase ruck ball, one out or straight up, would be were I’d imagine the best gains are going to be for a data driven leap using an AI model of how to structure your phases. Then moving to tactically for each opposition.

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