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USA looking for revenge after back-to-back embarrassments

Samuel Marques of Portugal is mobbed by team mates after kicking a penalty to tie the match and send Portugal to the 2023 Rugby World Cup during the RWC 2023 Final Qualification Tournament match between USA and Portugal at The Sevens Stadium on November 18, 2022 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by Martin Dokoupil - World Rugby/World Rugby via Getty Images)

For the second time in two years USA Rugby will get a chance to take on arguably their most frustrating opponent on the international stage.

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Not because of a long history of competition (the two nations have met only four times, with the USA holding the edge 2-1-1), but rather for the embarrassment in the most recent two matches. In 2018, on a last second penalty to salvage a draw, Portugal eliminated the Eagles from the World Cup and took that trip to France for their own.

Last year, given the chance to salvage some pride and prove the qualifier a fluke, USA allowed a tight 22-20 match to run away into a 46-20 hiding. With the match once again taking place on Portuguese soil, the Eagles will look to travel overseas and reestablish their competitiveness with their Tier 2 peer.

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Fixture
Internationals
Portugal
17 - 21
Full-time
USA
All Stats and Data

The USA’s most recent foray into the international scene, the Pacific Nations Cup, did not produce the wins the Americans sought but it did provide a glimpse at what head coach Scott Lawrence is building. Tight matches against Fiji and Samoa showcased tireless defense and abrasiveness at the contact point, as well as an ability to corral counterattacks. Clever strikes off a stable-to-dominant set piece established a desire to attack and score quickly. Smart tactical kicking belied a maturity and patience not always seen in the Eagles. But with a history of finding silver linings in such matches, can the Eagles actually put the completed product on the pitch?

For Portugal, the Tier 2 darlings of the World Cup after a historic win over Fiji, recent matches have produced mixed results. With only two summer tests, a drubbing by South Africa and a comfortable win over Namibia, questions will surround their cohesion and connectivity. However, for a team that often relies on individual brilliance to score, not all fifteen players need to coordinate to get the result. Can those stars find their feet and find the right gaps to put Portugal away?

Why Portugal can win

Time and again Portugal have shown an ability to create magic out of nothing, often through the brilliance of fullback Manuel Cardoso Pinto and centers Jose Lima and Tomas Appleton. In their last matchup with the USA, these players’ quick feet punished tired American legs, consistently creating line breaks and scoring opportunities. With three tries in the last 20 minutes of that match, the USA’s good defensive work in the first half meant nothing. Similarly, for the USA in the Pacific Nations Cup, despite some excellent spells of connected, aggressive defense, both Samoa and Fiji eventually broke down the tired Eagles to find the try zone. As a team that loves to spin the ball wide (and back again), Portugal is comfortable maintaining long possessions and waiting for their chance to strike.

Defensively, Portugal aims to keep men on their feet and fill the width rather than aggressively contest the breakdown. Judging by the American struggles in recent matches to manufacture attack and go forward, they’ll be frustrated by the lack of space and either kick back to the dangerous Portuguese counterattack, or try to force a pass and likewise create a broken field for Los Lobos.

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A Portuguese win will come from exciting set piece attack and broken play, along with consistent, tireless defense that forces the USA into the uncomfortable position of creating their own opportunities.

Head-to-Head

Last 3 Meetings

Wins
1
Draws
1
Wins
1
Average Points scored
26
19
First try wins
67%
Home team wins
33%

Why USA can win

With a full year of the Scott Lawrence regime at their back, the Eagles arrive in Portugal a markedly different side than the one that collapsed last year. With only six players from that day likely to appear in this weekend’s fifteen, we can expect a different performance, especially given the injection of the likes of Jamason Fa?anana-Schultz and AJ MacGinty. The former will lead a bruising ball-carrying campaign, while the latter will pull the strings as he has at the highest levels of the game. The Americans should find dominance in the set piece, both scrums and lineouts, but especially in the maul as they look to reignite this weapon from the PNC. Smart attack and kicking from MacGinty will put the USA in position to use this approach, with strong strike moves to keep the Portuguese honest. As for the Portuguese spread defense, this approach falls apart with sufficient carry and breakdown dominance– the attack repeatedly punches holes in the defensive line and either forces more defenders to commit or simply maintains possession as they march down the pitch.

On defense, the Americans proved in the PNC they can maintain sufficient connection to limit the bleeding against high-flying teams like Fiji. Though Los Lobos will likely find a gap or two, especially as the legs tire, if the Americans control the clock and score as they should, the balance of points will end in their favor.

The Bottom Line

The Eagles have proved they’re willing to put in the work to rebuild their game plan and ethos in the Scott Lawrence model, and the Americans we saw in the PNC are leaps and bounds ahead of those from last year’s drubbing. Against a rusty Portuguese side, they’ll put enough of the pieces together to outscore a few moments of Portuguese brilliance. USA to win by two tries.

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J
JW 1 hour ago
'Passionate reunion of France and New Zealand shows Fabien Galthie is wrong to rest his stars'

Ok, managed to read the full article..

... New Zealand’s has only 14 and the professional season is all over within four months. In France, club governance is the responsibility of an independent organisation [the Ligue Nationale de Rugby or LNR] which is entirely separate from the host union [the Fédération Française de Rugby or FFR]. Down south New Zealand Rugby runs the provincial and the national game.

That is the National Provincial Championship, a competition of 14 representative union based teams run through the SH international window and only semi professional (paid only during it's running). It is run by NZR and goes for two and a half months.


Super Rugby is a competition involving 12 fully professional teams, of which 5 are of New Zealand eligibility, and another joint administered team of Pacific Island eligibility, with NZR involvement. It was a 18 week competition this year, so involved (randomly chosen I believe) extra return fixtures (2 or 3 home and away derbys), and is run by Super Rugby Pacific's own independent Board (or organisation). The teams may or may not be independently run and owned (note, this does not necessarily mean what you think of as 'privately owned').


LNR was setup by FFR and the French Government to administer the professional game in France. In New Zealand, the Players Association and Super Rugby franchises agreed last month to not setup their own governance structure for professional rugby and re-aligned themselves with New Zealand Rugby. They had been proposing to do something like the English model, I'm not sure how closely that would have been aligned to the French system but it did not sound like it would have French union executive representation on it like the LNR does.

In the shaky isles the professional pyramid tapers to a point with the almighty All Blacks. In France the feeling for country is no more important than the sense of fierce local identity spawned at myriad clubs concentrated in the southwest. Progress is achieved by a nonchalant shrug and the wide sweep of nuanced negotiation, rather than driven from the top by a single intense focus.

Yes, it is pretty much a 'representative' selection system at every level, but these union's are having to fight for their existence against the regime that is NZR, and are currently going through their own battle, just as France has recently as I understand it. A single focus, ala the French game, might not be the best outcome for rugby as a whole.


For pure theatre, it is a wonderful article so far. I prefer 'Ntamack New Zealand 2022' though.

The young Crusader still struggles to solve the puzzle posed by the shorter, more compact tight-heads at this level but he had no problem at all with Colombe.

It was interesting to listen to Manny during an interview on Maul or Nothing, he citied that after a bit of banter with the All Black's he no longer wanted one of their jersey's after the game. One of those talks was an eye to eye chat with Tamaiti Williams, there appear to be nothing between the lock and prop, just a lot of give and take. I thought TW angled in and caused Taylor to pop a few times, and that NZ were lucky to be rewarded.

f you have a forward of 6ft 8ins and 145kg, and he is not at all disturbed by a dysfunctional set-piece, you are in business.

He talked about the clarity of the leadership that helped alleviate any need for anxiety at the predicaments unfolding before him. The same cannot be said for New Zealand when they had 5 minutes left to retrieve a match winning penalty, I don't believe. Did the team in black have much of a plan at any point in the game? I don't really call an autonomous 10 vehicle they had as innovative. I think Razor needs to go back to the dealer and get a new game driver on that one.

Vaa’i is no match for his power on the ground. Even in reverse, Meafou is like a tractor motoring backwards in low gear, trampling all in its path.

Vaa'i actually stops him in his tracks. He gets what could have been a dubious 'tackle' on him?

A high-level offence will often try to identify and exploit big forwards who can be slower to reload, and therefore vulnerable to two quick plays run at them consecutively.

Yes he was just standing on his haunches wasn't he? He mentioned that in the interview, saying that not only did you just get up and back into the line to find the opposition was already set and running at you they also hit harder than anything he'd experienced in the Top 14. He was referring to New Zealands ultra-physical, burst-based Super style of course, which he was more than a bit surprised about. I don't blame him for being caught out.


He still sent the obstruction back to the repair yard though!

What wouldn’t the New Zealand rugby public give to see the likes of Mauvaka and Meafou up front..

Common now Nick, don't go there! Meafou showed his Toulouse shirt and promptly got his citizenship, New Zealand can't have him, surely?!?


As I have said before with these subjects, really enjoy your enthusiasm for their contribution on the field and I'd love to see more of their shapes running out for Vern Cotter and the like styled teams.

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