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Why Wales' and England's fortunes are intertwined this weekend

LONDON, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 10: Wales' Tommy Reffell in action during the Guinness Six Nations 2024 match between England and Wales at Twickenham Stadium on February 10, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Bob Bradford - CameraSport via Getty Images)

In dark times, normally an England defeat would provide some much-needed respite for Welsh rugby supporters.

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However, a first-ever England defeat at the hands of Japan this weekend would come at a price on both sides of the bridge.

Wales cannot be displaced from 11th position by Georgia this weekend as a win over Tonga wouldn’t lead to any increase in the Lelos’ rating and Wales don’t stand to lose any points if, as expected, they’re well beaten by world champions South Africa.

But while Georgia aren’t a threat, Japan potentially are. As fanciful as it might sound, Eddie Jones might have one last big win in him, and who better to overturn than the team that dispensed of his services and who are now coached by his old lieutenant?

Japan came up well short when the teams met in Tokyo in June, losing 52-17. But the fact of the matter is that the Brave Blossoms will climb two places in the world rankings if they come out on top, leaving Wales and Georgia trailing in their wake.

Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins
1
Draws
0
Wins
4
Average Points scored
14
36
First try wins
100%
Home team wins
40%

On a day which could be bad enough in its own right given the predictions that the Springboks will hammer a final nail into the Warren Gatland era 2.0, news of an England defeat could worsen the mood even further as it would condemn Wales to their lowest-ever ranking of 12th.

The only consolation for Wales is that England would have also hit rock bottom in slipping to eighth if they lose to Japan. England could even end a five-match losing run and still fall a place to eighth – equalling their lowest-ever position – if the match between Scotland and Australia at Murrayfield ends in a draw.

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A fourth defeat of the Autumn Nations Series could actually see England sink as low as 10th in the unlikely event that they lose at home to Japan, Italy win and Fiji and Australia avoid defeat.

At the top of the rankings, South Africa’s place at number one is theirs to lose. Only a failure against Wales will see them toppled from the summit.

But with Ireland unable to add any points to their rating this weekend for a win against Fiji and New Zealand able to marginally improve theirs with a positive result against Italy, the All Blacks do have a chance, albeit a very slim one, to reclaim second spot off the Irish.

For New Zealand to become number one for the first time since the semi-finals of Rugby World Cup 2019, they must beat Italy in Turin and hope that South Africa lose by more than 15 points and Ireland are also beaten.

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Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins
4
Draws
0
Wins
1
Average Points scored
28
21
First try wins
40%
Home team wins
80%

Fourth-place France need a favour from Italy as well as beating Argentina in the opening match of the weekend if they are to climb above New Zealand into third.

Les Bleus can end the weekend in second if they win, New Zealand lose and Ireland are beaten by more than 15 points by Fiji – a scenario that would see France and Ireland swap places. However, defeat for Les Bleus at the Stade de France will see Argentina leapfrog them in the rankings and move up to fourth.

Third place is possible for Los Pumas but they would have to win by more than 15 points and hope New Zealand suffer a similarly large defeat for that to happen.

Scotland cannot improve on sixth place this weekend despite being able to pick nearly a point for an emphatic win against Australia, and they will relinquish their position to the Wallabies if the Grand Slam-seeking tourists make it three Autumn Nations Series wins on the bounce.

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J
JW 5 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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