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Why Wales' and England's fortunes are intertwined this weekend
By Jon Newcombe
In dark times, normally an England defeat would provide some much-needed respite for Welsh rugby supporters.
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However, a first-ever England defeat at the hands of Japan this weekend would come at a price on both sides of the bridge.
Wales cannot be displaced from 11th position by Georgia this weekend as a win over Tonga wouldn’t lead to any increase in the Lelos’ rating and Wales don’t stand to lose any points if, as expected, they’re well beaten by world champions South Africa.
But while Georgia aren’t a threat, Japan potentially are. As fanciful as it might sound, Eddie Jones might have one last big win in him, and who better to overturn than the team that dispensed of his services and who are now coached by his old lieutenant?
Japan came up well short when the teams met in Tokyo in June, losing 52-17. But the fact of the matter is that the Brave Blossoms will climb two places in the world rankings if they come out on top, leaving Wales and Georgia trailing in their wake.
On a day which could be bad enough in its own right given the predictions that the Springboks will hammer a final nail into the Warren Gatland era 2.0, news of an England defeat could worsen the mood even further as it would condemn Wales to their lowest-ever ranking of 12th.
The only consolation for Wales is that England would have also hit rock bottom in slipping to eighth if they lose to Japan. England could even end a five-match losing run and still fall a place to eighth – equalling their lowest-ever position – if the match between Scotland and Australia at Murrayfield ends in a draw.
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A fourth defeat of the Autumn Nations Series could actually see England sink as low as 10th in the unlikely event that they lose at home to Japan, Italy win and Fiji and Australia avoid defeat.
At the top of the rankings, South Africa’s place at number one is theirs to lose. Only a failure against Wales will see them toppled from the summit.
But with Ireland unable to add any points to their rating this weekend for a win against Fiji and New Zealand able to marginally improve theirs with a positive result against Italy, the All Blacks do have a chance, albeit a very slim one, to reclaim second spot off the Irish.
For New Zealand to become number one for the first time since the semi-finals of Rugby World Cup 2019, they must beat Italy in Turin and hope that South Africa lose by more than 15 points and Ireland are also beaten.
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Fourth-place France need a favour from Italy as well as beating Argentina in the opening match of the weekend if they are to climb above New Zealand into third.
Les Bleus can end the weekend in second if they win, New Zealand lose and Ireland are beaten by more than 15 points by Fiji – a scenario that would see France and Ireland swap places. However, defeat for Les Bleus at the Stade de France will see Argentina leapfrog them in the rankings and move up to fourth.
Third place is possible for Los Pumas but they would have to win by more than 15 points and hope New Zealand suffer a similarly large defeat for that to happen.
Scotland cannot improve on sixth place this weekend despite being able to pick nearly a point for an emphatic win against Australia, and they will relinquish their position to the Wallabies if the Grand Slam-seeking tourists make it three Autumn Nations Series wins on the bounce.
Go behind the scenes of both camps during the British and Irish Lions tour of South Africa in 2021. Binge watch exclusively on RugbyPass TV now
