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'Wales should have been ahead in the first half': Hope for Gatland

Warren Gatland and Rob Howley/ PA

It may seem counter-intuitive to take positives from a half that was lost by 20 points to zero, but stats appear to be on the side of Wales following their showing against Scotland on Saturday.

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Scotland surged to a 20-0 lead against Warren Gatland’s side at half-time in the Guinness Six Nations clash at the Principality Stadium, leaving many scrambling to scroll through the history books at the break to look up various record defeats.

The scoreboard was very clearly not on Wales’ side after 40 minutes, but curiously there was one stat that was- and one that will give Gatland plenty of hope moving forward.

On BBC’s Scrum V  on Sunday, Sean Holley revealed that Wales had actually accumulated more Expected Points in that first half, with 17.9 points to Scotland’s 14.4.

“Wales should have been ahead in the first half and, ultimately, should have won the game,” he said, which is a statement that has not necessarily been well-received online.

The positive for Gatland is that, despite a very lopsided scoreline at the break, it was a case of Wales underachieving whilst Scotland overachieved. Holley said that XP takes into account “entries into the 22, possession, territory, carries, line breaks,” showing the chances were there for Wales, they just did not capitalise on them. That is a promising position that most teams would not usually find themselves in after shipping a point every two minutes.

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What is even more bizarre is that Wales’ XP in the second half was lower than the first, down to 14.7, suggesting they hugely overachieved in that second 40. Meanwhile, Scotland performed as expected after the break, scoring seven points with an XP of 7.4, doing enough to hold on.

In total, that suggests Wales should have actually won the match, or at least had the opportunities to win the match. Of course, being wasteful is not a desirable trait, but it could be worse.

Scotland’s win will go down as one of the strangest wins in recent Six Nations history, but these stats are perhaps even stranger.

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2 Comments
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Bob Marler 320 days ago

Would be nice if the video actually explained how “expected points” are tallied.

Because to be quite frank - it looks and sounds like a load of bollocks.

Why can’t we just have the good old fashioned biased pundit tell us who should have won?

Imagine if they’d had this tool at the World Cup. Ireland would have won the games they weren’t even playing in. And of course the World Cup.

D
David 320 days ago

Last time I checked it’s about scoring points and not stats. Scotland were clinical in the first half, Wales in the second. Let’s not overthink it!!

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JW 5 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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