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'Wales should have been ahead in the first half': Hope for Gatland

Warren Gatland and Rob Howley/ PA

It may seem counter-intuitive to take positives from a half that was lost by 20 points to zero, but stats appear to be on the side of Wales following their showing against Scotland on Saturday.

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Scotland surged to a 20-0 lead against Warren Gatland’s side at half-time in the Guinness Six Nations clash at the Principality Stadium, leaving many scrambling to scroll through the history books at the break to look up various record defeats.

The scoreboard was very clearly not on Wales’ side after 40 minutes, but curiously there was one stat that was- and one that will give Gatland plenty of hope moving forward.

On BBC’s Scrum V  on Sunday, Sean Holley revealed that Wales had actually accumulated more Expected Points in that first half, with 17.9 points to Scotland’s 14.4.

“Wales should have been ahead in the first half and, ultimately, should have won the game,” he said, which is a statement that has not necessarily been well-received online.

The positive for Gatland is that, despite a very lopsided scoreline at the break, it was a case of Wales underachieving whilst Scotland overachieved. Holley said that XP takes into account “entries into the 22, possession, territory, carries, line breaks,” showing the chances were there for Wales, they just did not capitalise on them. That is a promising position that most teams would not usually find themselves in after shipping a point every two minutes.

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What is even more bizarre is that Wales’ XP in the second half was lower than the first, down to 14.7, suggesting they hugely overachieved in that second 40. Meanwhile, Scotland performed as expected after the break, scoring seven points with an XP of 7.4, doing enough to hold on.

In total, that suggests Wales should have actually won the match, or at least had the opportunities to win the match. Of course, being wasteful is not a desirable trait, but it could be worse.

Scotland’s win will go down as one of the strangest wins in recent Six Nations history, but these stats are perhaps even stranger.

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2 Comments
B
Bob Marler 289 days ago

Would be nice if the video actually explained how “expected points” are tallied.

Because to be quite frank - it looks and sounds like a load of bollocks.

Why can’t we just have the good old fashioned biased pundit tell us who should have won?

Imagine if they’d had this tool at the World Cup. Ireland would have won the games they weren’t even playing in. And of course the World Cup.

D
David 289 days ago

Last time I checked it’s about scoring points and not stats. Scotland were clinical in the first half, Wales in the second. Let’s not overthink it!!

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JW 3 hours ago
'Passionate reunion of France and New Zealand shows Fabien Galthie is wrong to rest his stars'

Ok, managed to read the full article..

... New Zealand’s has only 14 and the professional season is all over within four months. In France, club governance is the responsibility of an independent organisation [the Ligue Nationale de Rugby or LNR] which is entirely separate from the host union [the Fédération Française de Rugby or FFR]. Down south New Zealand Rugby runs the provincial and the national game.

That is the National Provincial Championship, a competition of 14 representative union based teams run through the SH international window and only semi professional (paid only during it's running). It is run by NZR and goes for two and a half months.


Super Rugby is a competition involving 12 fully professional teams, of which 5 are of New Zealand eligibility, and another joint administered team of Pacific Island eligibility, with NZR involvement. It was a 18 week competition this year, so involved (randomly chosen I believe) extra return fixtures (2 or 3 home and away derbys), and is run by Super Rugby Pacific's own independent Board (or organisation). The teams may or may not be independently run and owned (note, this does not necessarily mean what you think of as 'privately owned').


LNR was setup by FFR and the French Government to administer the professional game in France. In New Zealand, the Players Association and Super Rugby franchises agreed last month to not setup their own governance structure for professional rugby and re-aligned themselves with New Zealand Rugby. They had been proposing to do something like the English model, I'm not sure how closely that would have been aligned to the French system but it did not sound like it would have French union executive representation on it like the LNR does.

In the shaky isles the professional pyramid tapers to a point with the almighty All Blacks. In France the feeling for country is no more important than the sense of fierce local identity spawned at myriad clubs concentrated in the southwest. Progress is achieved by a nonchalant shrug and the wide sweep of nuanced negotiation, rather than driven from the top by a single intense focus.

Yes, it is pretty much a 'representative' selection system at every level, but these union's are having to fight for their existence against the regime that is NZR, and are currently going through their own battle, just as France has recently as I understand it. A single focus, ala the French game, might not be the best outcome for rugby as a whole.


For pure theatre, it is a wonderful article so far. I prefer 'Ntamack New Zealand 2022' though.

The young Crusader still struggles to solve the puzzle posed by the shorter, more compact tight-heads at this level but he had no problem at all with Colombe.

It was interesting to listen to Manny during an interview on Maul or Nothing, he citied that after a bit of banter with the All Black's he no longer wanted one of their jersey's after the game. One of those talks was an eye to eye chat with Tamaiti Williams, there appear to be nothing between the lock and prop, just a lot of give and take. I thought TW angled in and caused Taylor to pop a few times, and that NZ were lucky to be rewarded.

f you have a forward of 6ft 8ins and 145kg, and he is not at all disturbed by a dysfunctional set-piece, you are in business.

He talked about the clarity of the leadership that helped alleviate any need for anxiety at the predicaments unfolding before him. The same cannot be said for New Zealand when they had 5 minutes left to retrieve a match winning penalty, I don't believe. Did the team in black have much of a plan at any point in the game? I don't really call an autonomous 10 vehicle they had as innovative. I think Razor needs to go back to the dealer and get a new game driver on that one.

Vaa’i is no match for his power on the ground. Even in reverse, Meafou is like a tractor motoring backwards in low gear, trampling all in its path.

Vaa'i actually stops him in his tracks. He gets what could have been a dubious 'tackle' on him?

A high-level offence will often try to identify and exploit big forwards who can be slower to reload, and therefore vulnerable to two quick plays run at them consecutively.

Yes he was just standing on his haunches wasn't he? He mentioned that in the interview, saying that not only did you just get up and back into the line to find the opposition was already set and running at you they also hit harder than anything he'd experienced in the Top 14. He was referring to New Zealands ultra-physical, burst-based Super style of course, which he was more than a bit surprised about. I don't blame him for being caught out.


He still sent the obstruction back to the repair yard though!

What wouldn’t the New Zealand rugby public give to see the likes of Mauvaka and Meafou up front..

Common now Nick, don't go there! Meafou showed his Toulouse shirt and promptly got his citizenship, New Zealand can't have him, surely?!?


As I have said before with these subjects, really enjoy your enthusiasm for their contribution on the field and I'd love to see more of their shapes running out for Vern Cotter and the like styled teams.

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