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Waratahs secure statement win over Reds before Super Rugby Women finals

Katrina Barker of the NSW Waratahs celebrates her try with teammates during the round five Super Rugby Women's match between NSW Waratahs and Queensland Reds at Allianz Stadium on April 12, 2024 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

The Waratahs will enter the Super Rugby Women finals as overwhelming favourites for a fifth title after a 34-19 defeat of the Queensland Reds confirmed an unbeaten regular season.

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The NSW side had already secured first place on the ladder prior to Friday’s clash with their interstate rivals and will now host either the ACT Brumbies or Western Force in a home semi-final next Friday.

The loss at Allianz Stadium officially ends a disappointing campaign for last season’s runners-up, who managed just one win from five starts in 2024.

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If the Melbourne Rebels upset the Fijian Drua on Saturday, the perennial Super W heavyweights will finish the season in last place.

Mid-game leg injuries to prop Charli Jacoby and winger Dianne Waight did not help Queensland’s cause, with the Waratahs scoring shortly after each setback to rub salt into the wounds.

Jacoby managed to return in the second half, charging over for the Reds’ second try, but the visitors lost outside centre Georgina Friedrichs to yet another leg issue not long afterwards.

The Waratahs should have been further ahead than 17-7 at the main break but were clumsy shifting the ball.

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They opened the scoring in the first five minutes, overwhelming the Reds with their ruck speed to help Atasi Lafai burrow over.

Only three minutes later after Waight had gone down, Waratahs fullback Caitlyn Halse ripped the ball from replacement winger Alana Elisaia and streaked 60 metres down the left side to extend the advantage.

The Waratahs lost Kaitlan Leaney to a yellow card just before the break, the second-rower ordered off for lifting Lucy Thorpe in a dangerous tackle.

It proved the spark the Reds needed to get into the game, with Tiarna Molloy barging over to get the visitors on the board barely a minute later.

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Captain Cecilia Smith followed Jacoby onto the scoreboard and helped the Reds keep the heat on their highly-fancied hosts in the final 10 minutes.

But it was too little too late as inside centre Cheech Barker skipped through a hole on the left side to confirm the Waratahs’ win.

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J
JW 2 hours ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

It is now 22 years since Michael Lewis published his groundbreaking treatise on winning against the odds

I’ve never bothered looking at it, though I have seen a move with Clint as a scout/producer. I’ve always just figured it was basic stuff for the age of statistics, is that right?

Following the Moneyball credo, the tailor has to cut his cloth to the material available

This is actually a great example of what I’m thinking of. This concept has abosolutely nothing to do with Moneyball, it is simple being able to realise how skillsets tie together and which ones are really revelant.


It sounds to me now like “moneyball” was just a necessity, it was like scienctest needing to come up with some random experiment to make all the other world scholars believe that Earth was round. The American sporting scene is very unique, I can totally imagine one of it’s problems is rich old owners not wanting to move with the times and understand how the game has changed. Some sort of mesiah was needed to convert the faithful.


While I’m at this point in the article I have to say, now the NRL is a sport were one would stand up and pay attention to the moneyball phenom. Like baseball, it’s a sport of hundreds of identical repetitions, and very easy to data point out.

the tailor has to cut his cloth to the material available and look to get ahead of an unfair game in the areas it has always been strong: predictive intelligence and rugby ‘smarts’

Actually while I’m still here, Opta Expected Points analysis is the one new tool I have found interesting in the age of data. Seen how the random plays out as either likely, or unlikely, in the data’s (and algorithms) has actually married very closely to how I saw a lot of contests pan out.


Engaging return article Nick. I wonder, how much of money ball is about strategy as apposed to picks, those young fella’s got ahead originally because they were picking players that played their way right? Often all you here about is in regards to players, quick phase ruck ball, one out or straight up, would be were I’d imagine the best gains are going to be for a data driven leap using an AI model of how to structure your phases. Then moving to tactically for each opposition.

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