Warren Gatland makes 4 changes for Wales' last hope of 2024 win

Hope so.

Los pumas. 1 point.

🟥

Its a trivial observation to say that scoring more points and preventing more points against you would result in better outcomes. And points difference does not mean much either, as it is generally less than 5 points with top teams. Usain Bolt would win the 100m sprint by 200 milliseconds (approximately two blinks of an eye), but that doesn't mean the others could easily beat him.

Also, these kinds of analyses tend to talk about how the team in question would just need to do X, Y and Z to win, but assume that opponents don't make any changes themselves. This is nonsense, as it is always the case that both teams go away with a list of work-ons. If we're going to think about what would have happened if team A had made that tackle, kicked that goal or avoided that penalty, the n let's think about what would have happened if team B had passed to that overlap, avoided that card, or executed that lineout maul.

There are lots of things that England can focus on for improvement, but for me the main observation is that they have not been able to raise their game when it matters. Playing your best game when it counts is what makes champions, and England have not shown that. And, for me, that's a coaching thing.

I expected Borthwick to build a basics-first, conservative culture, minimizing mistakes, staying in the game, and squeezing out wins against fancier opponents and game plans. It's not that he isn't building something, but it has taken disappointingly long, not least if you compare it to Australia since Schmidt took over, or SA after Rassie took over.

But JW thinks all SH players only ever go to Europe for the money which is facile to the nth degree.🤣

Though I’m in the glass half full camp, one area I am concerned about is whether England’s overall strategy i.e. Borthwick’s assertion that the game plan is to ‘move the ball’ coupled with a (ragged) blitz defense are incompatible in that this approach places to great an aerobic demand on the players.

Moving the ball implies attacking quickly through the backs to find the edge or sprinting onto grubbers. Blitzing then adds further aerobic demands on the backs with constant shuttle runs when not in possession. Together, players are at a near constant state of plyometric capacity and which in my opinion, is why we’re seeing a performance drop off in the final quarter.

Scooter calls the lineout and he's mainly a lock.