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'We could win it': Rob Penney's shock title prediction as Waratahs eye first crown since 2014

(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

More than 1500 caps of Waratahs experience has walked out the door, but NSW coach Rob Penney believes his side has the potential to stun the doubters by winning this year’s Super Rugby AU title.

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NSW have experienced arguably the biggest player drain in their history over the past two years, with Adam Ashley-Cooper, Michael Hooper, Rob Simmons, Nick Phipps, Israel Folau, Sekope Kepu, Kurtley Beale, and Bernard Foley among the stars who have left.

The Waratahs were dealt a fresh blow this week when Wallabies forward Jack Dempsey announced he would be leaving at the end of the season to join the Glasgow Warriors.

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Reds coach Brad Thorn after his sides trail against the Waratahs.

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Reds coach Brad Thorn after his sides trail against the Waratahs.

The exodus of 1560 caps has left Penney with a near blank canvas to work with, and it’s an opportunity he’s embracing.

Penney faced a similarly daunting challenge in 2012 when he took over at Irish club Munster, and he was able to guide them to immediate success.

“We were equally down on what you would traditionally call experience, but we went on to make two Heineken Cup semi-finals and a Pro-14 semi-final,” Penney told AAP.

“Sometimes change just needs to be embraced. It’s just the way it is.”

The changes over the past two years have robbed the Waratahs of more than 800 caps of Wallabies experience.

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A few of the departing players – including prop Tom Robertson – have either publicly or privately cited off-field issues as one of the big reasons for their decision to leave the Waratahs.

Penney is adamant there’s a strong culture at the club, and says some players simply struggled to adapt to change.

“Change often causes anxiety, and there’s been massive changes,” Penney said.

“Some of the people had been here a long time. If it’s not the way it used to be, then sometimes people see that as being not positive.

“But certainly there was some change undertaken, and people make their own decisions about whether they embrace it or not. We’ve got a great group here now.”

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As for a realistic goal for 2021?

“Well, we could win it,” Penney said.

“The belief comes from the boys, the way in which they are growing, and on the back of some pretty pleasing performances towards the back end of Rugby AU last year.

“I do have faith in youth. I don’t necessarily go with, ‘you’ve got to have a lot of age or a lot of caps under your belt to win stuff’, because I’ve won stuff in NZ with a very young side.”

The Waratahs begin their Super Rugby AU campaign against the Queensland Reds at Suncorp Stadium on Friday.

DEPARTED PLAYERS SINCE 2019 AND NUMBER OF WARATAHS CAPS

Kurtley Beale – 148 caps

Tatafu Polota-Nau – 144 caps

Sekope Kepu – 140 caps

Michael Hooper – 121 caps

Bernard Foley – 120 caps

Israel Folau – 96 caps

Nick Phipps – 87 caps

Adam Ashley-Cooper – 76 caps

Damien Fitzpatrick – 73 caps

Jed Holloway – 63 caps

Tom Robertson – 62 caps

Tolu Latu – 59 caps

Ned Hanigan – 51 caps

Michael Wells – 46 caps

Rob Simmons – 43 caps

Tom Staniforth – 42 caps

Cameron Clark – 39 caps

Curtis Rona – 31 caps

Will Miller – 29 caps

Karmichael Hunt – 23 caps

Mitch Short – 16 caps

Rory O’Connor – 12 caps

Ryan McCauley – 10 caps

Mack Mason – 8 caps

Andrew Tuala – 7 caps

Shambeckler Vui – 5 caps

Michael McDonald – 4 caps

Pat Tafa – 2 caps

Tautalatasi Tasi – 1 cap

Siosifa Lisala – 1 cap

Nick Malouf – 1 cap

TOTAL: 1560 caps

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AM 44 minutes ago
'Freelancer' Izaia Perese shows the need for true inclusivity in Australian rugby

That's Cron's job though. Australia has had one of the most penalised scrums in international rugby for a long time. Just look at the scrum win loss percentage and scrum penalties. That is your evidence. AA has been the starter during that period. Pretty simple analysis. That Australia has had a poor scrum for a long time is hardly news. If bell and thor are not on the field they are woeful. So you are just plain wrong. They have very little time for the lions so doing the same old things that dont work is not going to get them there.


Ainsley is better than our next best tighthead options and has been playing well at scrum time for Lyon in the most competitive comp in the world. Superstar player? No. But better than the next best options. So that is a good enough guide. The scrummaging in the Prem is pretty good too so there is Sio's proof. Same analysis for him. Certainly better in both cases than Super, where the brumbies had the worst win loss and scrum pen in Super. Who plays there? Ohh yes... And the level of scrummaging in Super is well below the URC, prem and France with the SA teams out.


Nongorr is truly woeful. He's 130kg and gets shoved about. That just should not be happening at that weight for a specialist prop who has always played rugby cf pone with leauge. He has had enough time to develop at 23. You'd be better off with Pone who is at least good around the field for the moment and sending Nongorr on exchange to France or England to see if they can improve him with better coaching as happened with Skelton and Meafou. He isn't going to develop in time in super if he has it at all.


Latu is a better scrummaging hooker than BPA and Nasser. and he's the best aussie player over the ball at ruck time. McReight's super jackling percentage hasnt converted to international level but latu consistently does it at heniken level, which is similar to test level in the big games. With good coaching at La Rochelle he's much improved though still has the odd shocker. He should start the November games.

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