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'We'll have to be very smart': What the All Blacks expect from Wales

(Photo by The Asahi Shimbun via Getty Images)

Regardless of how many players Wales are missing ahead of this week’s clash with the All Blacks in Cardiff, the Kiwis aren’t taking the Six Nations champions lightly.

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That’s the verdict from All Blacks assistant coach John Plumtree, who refused to minimalise the threat posed by the Welsh, even though they are bereft of numerous headline stars.

With the match being held outside of World Rugby’s November test window, Wales boss Wayne Pivac is unable to call upon British and Irish Lions trio Louis Rees-Zammit, Dan Biggar and Taulupe Faletau, all of whom will play for their Premiership clubs in England this weekend.

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How Wales can defeat the All Blacks | Aotearoa Rugby Pod

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How Wales can defeat the All Blacks | Aotearoa Rugby Pod

Pivac also has to contend with the injuries of other frontline players such as Justin Tipuric, Liam Williams, Josh Navidi, Leigh Halfpenny, George North and Dan Lydiate, among others.

The recent news of Willis Halaholo’s positive Covid test has thrown a further spanner in the works, meaning the Welsh are tasked with taking down the All Blacks for the first time since 1953 with a vastly understrength team on Sunday [NZT].

However, Plumtree told reporters on Wednesday [NZT] that the All Blacks have dismissed the fanfare over the stretched Welsh player pool and maintained that his young side are in for a tactical war at Principality Stadium.

“I’m sure the game is going to be very physical. We expect that coming from them. Every game you play against Wales, it’s always been a tough task,” Plumtree said.

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“A couple of the leaders have stood up and talked to the boys that haven’t been here before about the challenge. Wales are a side that you’ve got to be very patient with, you’ve got to punch your way, and you’ve got to work very hard for a victory.

“We haven’t really read too much into the players they haven’t got available. In my time as a coach, when three or four players aren’t available, there’s another three or four that come in that always want to give their very best.

“I’m sure those players that do come in for Wales that are taking maybe some of the bigger names’ places will want to prove what they’re worth in their jersey.

“That can make life tough for us, so we understand the challenge and we’re preparing for a real tough one.”

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The All Blacks aren’t without their own injury concerns after Angus Ta’avao dislocated his elbow in training, leaving the 31-year-old prop in doubt for the second match of his side’s end-of-year tour.

After his two-try showing in New Zealand’s 104-14 thrashing of the USA Eagles in Washington DC last weekend, Ta’avao may have come into contention to face Wales.

However, the fact that Nepo Laulala and Ofa Tuungafasi were among the 11 players who travelled to the United Kingdom a day before the USA test is perhaps an indication that they are the frontrunners to feature in the Welsh capital.

Should they play, Laulala and Tuungafasi are two of many players the All Blacks will heavily rely on to lay a solid foundation at the set piece as Plumtree expects a “slug fight” in potentially wet conditions, should the Principality Stadium roof be opened.

Playing against a team like the All Blacks, who like to play in all areas of the park, on a soggy turf could play into Welsh hands given, according to Plumtree, their ball-running threat in the tight channels and strong kicking game.

That doesn’t even take into account the emotional factor of taking on the All Blacks in front of a sold-out, 74,000-capacity home crowd, which Plumtree said will lift the spirits of the Welsh players.

“The psyche of the Welsh boys is that they’ll be really up for this game, they’ll be really excited about it. They know it’ll be a pretty big challenge, but they will be very motivated,” he said.

“Certainly what you can expect is every individual will play above their game that they normally play, and that will make them pretty tough [to beat].

“If you watch the Welsh play, they’re a very patient side, they build a lot of pressure through carrying the ball off 9, particularly, and they’ll be patient with their kicking game as well, so they use that to gain territory.

“If it’s a little bit wet at the stadium and the roof’s open, then, for want of a better word, it’ll be a real slug fight, potentially on a pretty soft ground.

“Tactically, we’ll have to be very smart and take our opportunities when we do get territory because we know that they’ll be working really hard defensively and they’ll be looking to build pressure with that ball.”

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Andrew 1152 days ago

Well the Welsh have not wanted for motivation over the last week. Its bern just like before the Springbok tests. Written off comprehensively, and in the last day or so, Guzzler effectively admitting the ABs arent that bright tactically.

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JW 1 hour ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I had a look at the wiki article again, it's all terribly old data (not that I'd see reason for much change in the case of SA).

Number Of Clubs:

1526

Registered+Unregistered Players:

651146

Number of Referees:

3460

Pre-teen Male Players:

320842

Pre-teen Female Player:

4522

Teen Male Player:

199213

Teen Female Player:

4906

Senior Male Player:

113174

Senior Female Player:

8489

Total Male Player:

633229

Total Female Player:

17917


So looking for something new as were more concerned with adults specifically, so I had a look at their EOY Financial Review.

The total number of clubs remains consistent, with a marginal increase of 1% from 1,161 to 1,167. 8.1.

A comparative analysis of verified data for 2022 and 2023 highlights a marginal decline of 1% in the number of female players, declining from 6,801 to 6,723. Additionally, the total number of players demonstrates an 8% decrease, dropping from 96,172 to 88,828.

So 80k+ adult males (down from 113k), but I'm not really sure when youth are involved with SAn clubs, or if that data is for some reason not being referenced/included. 300k male students however (200k in old wiki data).


https://resources.world.rugby/worldrugby/document/2020/07/28/212ed9cf-cd61-4fa3-b9d4-9f0d5fb61116/P56-57-Participation-Map_v3.pdf has France at 250k registered but https://presse-europe1-fr.translate.goog/exclu-europe-1-le-top-10-des-sports-les-plus-pratiques-en-france-en-2022/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp has them back up at 300k registered.


The French number likely Students + Club, but everyone collects data different I reckon. In that WR pdf for instance a lot of the major nations have a heavily registered setup, were as a nation like England can penetrate into a lot more schools to run camps and include them in the reach of rugby. For instance the SARU release says only 29% of schools are reached by proper rugby programs, where as the 2million English number would be through a much much higer penetration I'd imagine. Which is thanks to schools having the ability to involve themselves in programs more than anything.


In any case, I don't think you need to be concerned with the numbers, whether they are 300 or 88k, there is obviously a big enough following for their pro scenes already to have enough quality players for a 10/12 team competition. They appear ibgger than France but I don't really by the lower English numbers going around.

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