Northern Edition
Select Edition
Northern Northern
Southern Southern
Global Global
New Zealand New Zealand
France France

What history tells us about caps at a Rugby World Cup

Sam Underhill at England's capping ceremony

In a previous article, the idea of the competition between form and experience leading into the Rugby World Cup was discussed, and how caps may be misleading.

ADVERTISEMENT

Out of the top six sides in the world rankings, arguably the form side in the world, South Africa, have the fewest caps, with 34 on average. England and Wales, who are arguably the other two form teams, also only average 35 caps.

Meanwhile, the weakest of the six over the past four years, Australia, have the most caps, with 45 on average.

This throws into question the notion that caps will generate success.

However, a graph on the website dementedmole.com provides some insight into the caps of each RWC winning side this century and how that provides some indication as to what may transpire over the coming months.

What is clear is that the All Blacks in 2015 had significantly more caps on average than any other winning team, averaging 48 per player (rounded to the nearest whole number).

Video Spacer

The tournament in England four years ago was nothing more than a crowning procession for them, with only the Springboks truly troubling them in the semi-final.

Likewise, in 2003 and 2011, England had 35 caps on average and the All Blacks had 37 caps on average.

ADVERTISEMENT

These numbers are still high by comparision to the contenders for this World Cup, although England’s number may be misleading as there are more tests these days, meaning more caps. This is illustrated by the fact that Jason Leonard was the most capped player ever in 2003 with 118 test caps for England and the British and Irish Lions and only the third centurion in the game. Since then, there have been 52 players to earn 100 caps, with Richie McCaw earning as many as 148.

What is most interesting is that the Springboks only averaged 26 caps in 2007, far fewer than any team in the top six currently. Jake White’s team that year were not the favourites going into the World Cup, neither were runners-up England. In that sense, 2007 was surely the most open RWC this century, and perhaps provides a sign as to what may happen this year.

This year’s showcase in Japan has been tipped by many as the hardest World Cup to call, and therefore the most similar to 2007.

ADVERTISEMENT

Caps seem to be less important when there is more competition, and Rassie Erasmus, Warren Gatland and Eddie Jones can use South Africa’s 2007 campaign as inspiration this year.

However, the other World Cups may not have been as competitive simply because the winners had more experience, as there seems to be a correlation between how competitive a World Cup is, and how experienced the winners were.

England probably entered the 2003 and New Zealand the 2011 World Cups as favourites, which goes to suggest that caps are integral to success. These cap hauls seem to be comparable to the All Blacks’ average of 39 and Ireland’s of 37 this year, which bodes well for both nations.

But despite being the favourites to lift the Webb Ellis Cup this time last year, the All Blacks and Ireland have hit a bit of a slump since then. The reigning world champions have only won two of their last five matches, while Ireland suffered humbling defeats to both England and Wales in the Six Nations this year.

Steve Hansen and Joe Schmidt can still take solace in the fact that they have built experienced teams, which could potentially pay off come November 2nd in Yokohama.

The Wallabies are the exception here, as, although they have an extremely experienced squad, Michael Cheika has perhaps squandered some form players who don’t have many caps, for those who are experienced but may not be in their prime.

While Australia can never be written off when it comes to the RWC, the other five teams in the top six all are genuine candidates to win, and have all been tipped at various points to come away victorious. In a tournament that looks to be so competitive, each team can draw inspiration from different winners over the years.

Video Spacer
ADVERTISEMENT
LIVE

Whanganui vs The Classics

Classic Wallabies vs British & Irish Legends | First Match | Full Match Replay

Did the Lions loosies get away with murder? And revisiting the Springboks lift | Whistle Watch

The First Test, Visiting The Great Barrier Reef & Poetry with Pierre | Ep 6: The Ultimate Test

KOKO Show | July 22nd | Full Throttle with Brisbane Test Review and Melbourne Preview

New Zealand v South Africa | World Rugby U20 Championship | Extended Highlights

USA vs England | Men's International | Full Match Replay

France v Argentina | World Rugby U20 Championship | Extended Highlights

Lions Share | Episode 4

Trending on RugbyPass

Comments

0 Comments
Be the first to comment...

Join free and tell us what you really think!

Sign up for free
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest Features

Comments on RugbyPass

J
JW 16 minutes ago
Half-back depth is the flaw in 'Razor's' 4-4-4 Rugby World Cup plan

Well there’s a couple of distinctions here that are important aren’t there?


First though like I replied to Tk where does it say theres need to test vets, or proven reliable players? It is simply ‘test quality’.


Now, I have created a list that I think is test quality, so all weve got to do is upskill the missing pieces right? No. Razor might not mean to have given every player half a dozen matchs but he will want to have identified and assured himself that each individual is indeed test quality. So yes, plays like Darry and Lord may still be included in a few squads and used so he’s happy to include them as say 5th and 6th ranked locks, but that doesn’t mean he needs to go to the same level to ensure for himself the 7th and 8th ranked locks.


He might be happy basing performances off SR Finals, or organizing an AB XV match against a team like France or SA with similar locking depth (even organizing say Warner Dearns to be part of the Japan XV etc), and I’m sure they’re going to have a very large squad over in South Africa for two months.


I don’t think he is quite in the same predicament as SA to have to rest top stars. And this is obviously just goal setting, they’re supposed to be hard. As you can see by the context around this series, arbitrary targets like everyone getting some minutes are made. That could also simply be how he ensures he has met the 4. So hookers would be ticked, as he’s already used 5 at test level. If you looked at the Baabaas SA game you’d see Beehre performing like an accomplished test player, that already makes 7 locks with more than 2 full seasons to go. You take the point BA was making about Marshalls previous remarks about Razor want players to be able to play 3/4/5 different positions, that would mean if Razor was really happy with Finau at lock last week he already has 8 test quality locks as well, etc, etc.


TLDR sorry for the big reply, it’s just a goal, the teams not going to suddenly fail if he doesn’t reach it, I think theres many means and many players for him to be comfortable in getting 4 in each position. He’s obviously not going to be able to get 4 proven, hardened test players in each by then, no.

132 Go to comments
TRENDING
TRENDING Former Lion offers theory why Chessum call-up led to Genge benching Former Lion offers theory why Chessum call-up led to Genge benching