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What history tells us about caps at a Rugby World Cup

Sam Underhill at England's capping ceremony

In a previous article, the idea of the competition between form and experience leading into the Rugby World Cup was discussed, and how caps may be misleading.

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Out of the top six sides in the world rankings, arguably the form side in the world, South Africa, have the fewest caps, with 34 on average. England and Wales, who are arguably the other two form teams, also only average 35 caps.

Meanwhile, the weakest of the six over the past four years, Australia, have the most caps, with 45 on average.

This throws into question the notion that caps will generate success.

However, a graph on the website dementedmole.com provides some insight into the caps of each RWC winning side this century and how that provides some indication as to what may transpire over the coming months.

What is clear is that the All Blacks in 2015 had significantly more caps on average than any other winning team, averaging 48 per player (rounded to the nearest whole number).

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The tournament in England four years ago was nothing more than a crowning procession for them, with only the Springboks truly troubling them in the semi-final.

Likewise, in 2003 and 2011, England had 35 caps on average and the All Blacks had 37 caps on average.

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These numbers are still high by comparision to the contenders for this World Cup, although England’s number may be misleading as there are more tests these days, meaning more caps. This is illustrated by the fact that Jason Leonard was the most capped player ever in 2003 with 118 test caps for England and the British and Irish Lions and only the third centurion in the game. Since then, there have been 52 players to earn 100 caps, with Richie McCaw earning as many as 148.

What is most interesting is that the Springboks only averaged 26 caps in 2007, far fewer than any team in the top six currently. Jake White’s team that year were not the favourites going into the World Cup, neither were runners-up England. In that sense, 2007 was surely the most open RWC this century, and perhaps provides a sign as to what may happen this year.

This year’s showcase in Japan has been tipped by many as the hardest World Cup to call, and therefore the most similar to 2007.

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Caps seem to be less important when there is more competition, and Rassie Erasmus, Warren Gatland and Eddie Jones can use South Africa’s 2007 campaign as inspiration this year.

However, the other World Cups may not have been as competitive simply because the winners had more experience, as there seems to be a correlation between how competitive a World Cup is, and how experienced the winners were.

England probably entered the 2003 and New Zealand the 2011 World Cups as favourites, which goes to suggest that caps are integral to success. These cap hauls seem to be comparable to the All Blacks’ average of 39 and Ireland’s of 37 this year, which bodes well for both nations.

But despite being the favourites to lift the Webb Ellis Cup this time last year, the All Blacks and Ireland have hit a bit of a slump since then. The reigning world champions have only won two of their last five matches, while Ireland suffered humbling defeats to both England and Wales in the Six Nations this year.

Steve Hansen and Joe Schmidt can still take solace in the fact that they have built experienced teams, which could potentially pay off come November 2nd in Yokohama.

The Wallabies are the exception here, as, although they have an extremely experienced squad, Michael Cheika has perhaps squandered some form players who don’t have many caps, for those who are experienced but may not be in their prime.

While Australia can never be written off when it comes to the RWC, the other five teams in the top six all are genuine candidates to win, and have all been tipped at various points to come away victorious. In a tournament that looks to be so competitive, each team can draw inspiration from different winners over the years.

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J
JW 15 minutes ago
Scott Robertson explains the new halves pairing for the All Blacks ahead of France

More indecision and excuses from Razor.


You've given a spot at 6 to Finau whom you haven't even had the courage to use off the bench in the last two games. Now the young enforcer is going into a big much with no rugby, we should expect a similar result to how Aumua struggled to impact a game after he'd hardly been given any chances of the bench either.


Weve now dropped a back three player who also wasn't even given any game time off the bench for someone coming in cold when they really need to have been playing constantly to perform at their best. There are just so many better pictures that should have been present rather than this mickey mouse selection.


I really hope Finau can overcome this, it won't be the first time he's had to. How is the bench even made up? Could you not just have included these changes in the article as well? I actually like BB coming back in, it highlights how courageous he is after sitting out through another concussion that could just as easily sent him back into months of symptoms again.


Dmac was also off his game last week, as was Ratima, with the poor platform Razor and his team have been setting the players up with. He needs to freedom to clear his mind from the clutter that saw him make so many bad decisions last week. It will still probably be a net loss for the team performance not having him on from the start but it should be better for them in the long run if he's allowed to just come on late and play his game trying to claw things back for the team.


With Roigard starting that might prove an outlet for the team to actually get on top first however. Along with Ardie busting a gut in his new role and emptying the tank by halftime, and being replaced by another new star, might mean that Dmac is just icing on the cake at the end.

12 Go to comments
F
Flankly 42 minutes ago
Jake White: If I was England coach, I’d have been livid

I am not an England fan, but still very disappointed at what Borthwick is serving up. Regardless of winning or losing, they should be executing the basics at a world class level. That was the reason they replaced Eddie with Steve. After two years England has not built the solid foundations that the RFU were presumably after. Its hard to see it as anything other than a coaching problem.


Having said that I really hope that Rassie has got his team fired up for the game. The Boks at maximum intensity and with no crises (eg red cards) would be expected to win this game. But it does not take much reduction in pressure for Bok teams to lose. The Boks lose when complacency sets in.


On Felix Jones, my guess is that they can't agree on a non-compete so they kept him on payroll for the duration of the Nov tests. The risk was that he would be hired by Rassie or Razor prior to the tests.


As relates to law tweaking, it feels like WR are more comfortable discussing changes in laws than insisting on implementation. For my money the biggest thing they could do is to be strict and consistent in officiating ruck behavior. In every game we see flopping, lazy lying, clearing of unbound players, making plays while off your feet, delays in placing the ball, side entry, offside line infringements, and similar nonsense. It's really really bad, and the WR attitude seems to be that we should turn a blind eye in pursuit of "flowing rugby". In truth it's just boring, because it randomizes the outcome.

9 Go to comments
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