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What Jones must fix to win back the Bledisloe Cup off the All Blacks
By Ben Smith
The short answer is, Jones must fix a lot to win back the Bledisloe Cup or even force a decider in Dunedin.
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While the task seems unlikely based on the form of both sides, it isn’t impossible.
An early red card conceded by the All Blacks could easily alter the fate of the series. In fact, the All Blacks have had three red cards in Tests against the Wallabies in recent years: Scott Barrett in 2019, Ofa Tu’ungafasi in 2020, and Jordie Barrett in 2021, all on Australian soil. Australia won two of those three games.
So, while Jones might hope for such an outcome, of all the issues he must address, the first is his own side’s discipline, which was awful under Dave Rennie against New Zealand.
Across the two Tests against New Zealand last year, the Wallabies were issued five yellow cards. For 50 minutes across the 160 total, they played with 14 men.
At Eden Park, lock Jed Holloway was in the bin after just two minutes with a lifting cleanout on Dalton Papalii; in Melbourne, Darcy Swain was gone after an illegal clean on Quinn Tupaea.
If you want to beat the All Blacks, you can’t do it with fewer men on the field for a third of the time. It goes without saying this cannot happen again; discipline has to be much, much better.
While Rennie’s side was plagued by poor discipline, their defensive structures and set-piece attack were lightyears ahead of what the Wallabies have shown under Jones so far.
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The indications by Jones when he took over the head coaching role were that he wanted Australia to become a better kicking side. Short, sharp possessions with precise set-piece attack to be followed up with territorial advancement in the form of boot-to-ball.
The downstream impacts of this have to be considered, as it could spell disaster for the Wallabies.
They will need to develop a great kick-chase line and be better in unstructured defensive situations, two areas that typically they haven’t been good at.
Poor kicking and subsequent defensive lapses have been a thorn in the side of Wallabies’ teams against the All Blacks for years.
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At 10-all in Melbourne last year, they conceded very early in the second half after fullback Andrew Kellaway failed to clean up a clearing kick in the backfield effectively.
Poor coverage let the ball bounce around; Kellaway was smashed and turned over by the kick chase line, and the All Blacks scored on the next phase.
Less than five minutes later, the same thing happened to Marika Koroibete after a poor Foley midfield bomb was returned back downfield by a Will Jordan punt.
From the ruck penalty forced on Koroibete, the All Blacks were offered multiple attacking platforms inside the 22, and Richie Mo’unga scored after another infringement and yellow card to Jake Gordon. The pressure was too much to withstand, and the Wallabies folded.
After an uncontested midfield box kick by Nic White, moments later Will Jordan was in the open field for a scorching try after snatching a Barrett chip kick.
An inability to control situations after a kick in Melbourne last year led to three tries in less than fifteen minutes.
News that the Wallabies want to kick more will be music to the ears of the All Blacks. It will be pointless for them unless they can also bring a stronger scramble defence for unstructured play.
Carter Gordon had the most kicks of any Australian flyhalf in Super Rugby Pacific this season. The Rebels utilize his big boot to drive territory, which will appeal to Eddie Jones.
He has a monstrous leg and can chew off big distances, but he is still prone to poor kick execution at times.
At 35 years old and on the comeback from injury, the jury is still out on Cooper after just two games, but it seems Gordon is built for Test rugby.
The risk is much lower than perceived in handing the No. 10 jersey to Gordon to face the All Blacks, with Cooper coming off the bench to close out the game. Gordon is 22 years old, not a fresh-faced teenager.
Losing Len Ikitau is a major blow; there is no equal replacement for the best defensive centre in the world. Izaia Perese is the best option in his absence to partner Samu Kerevi at No. 12, who can bring fire and won’t take a step back.
Perese has what it takes to rattle Rieko Ioane and get under his skin. That is the kind of attitude the Wallabies need to bring, something that Gordon possesses as well.
If Eddie Jones is honest with himself, he would leave Michael Hooper out of the side, fit or not.
The Pretoria tape was not pretty viewing for Hooper, who looked past it before his injury. Ineffective in contact and at the breakdown, the No. 7 was thrown around by the Bok pack.
It is time for Fraser McReight to start at No. 7, alongside Valetini and boom Waratahs rookie Langi Gleeson.
Jones axed three from his Bledisloe squad, but more of these changes must come for the starting side to face the All Blacks.
Apart from the final twenty minutes in the first Bledisloe Test in Melbourne last year, the Bledisloe series didn’t have much to write home about for the Wallabies.
Down by 31-13 at the 60-minute mark in the first Test, they arguably should never have been in a position to win it.
In the second test, they simply weren’t in it at all as the All Blacks piled on points in a 40-14 win at Eden Park as the Wallabies’ set-piece was decimated.
The takeaway is Australia never had control of either Test, which must change if they are to win back the Bledisloe Cup. That starts with keeping all 15 men on the field.
Beating the All Blacks at least once in 2023 is absolutely imperative for Jones to carry any hope into the World Cup after two losses.
Buoyed by a solid historical record at the MCG, perhaps an early red card to the All Blacks, some fire from younger Wallabies, and maybe Jones will get what he needs.
I think that the current emphasis on team selection somewhat misses the point tbh.
The simple fact is that Jones preffered playing style of kick & clap rugby is now hopelessly out of date.
Add to that a pack of forwards that lacks enough bite at test level, and the debate about centre pairings and fly half selection becomes academic.
to be fair, Eddie recognised this when he started moving england away from that style of play in 2021.
I think perhaps, Eddie's thinking is that its much easier to develop a decent defence and set-piece in a short amount of time, than it is to develop a good attack. Kick and clap rugby won't win a world cup, but it might be the best way to ensure you get past Wales, Fiji, Georgia, and whoever finishes second in pool D. If I'm right, then it makes more sense for Eddie to hype up this style of play in order to keep players motivated than it would for him to admit that they haven't been given enough time to properly challenge for a world cup. If he admitted that he'd not only demotivate his players, but alsoundermine the decision to sack Rennie..
Red cards, torrential rain, and TMO could just about do it
Perhaps the All Blacks give up the matches because they lost their voices for the haka.
Len Ikitau the best defensive centre in the world?
Ben Smith makes outrageous statements without providing concrete evidence to convince the readers.
I will make a bold proclamation myself - Georgia will win RWC '23! Like Ben, I will will it into existence until the audience is hypnotised.
If you had said Georgia will win in 2031 you have a lot more time before anyone cn prove you wrong. LOL.
Viva Georgia!! LOL
Ikitau the best defensive centre in the world. No matter where these stats were sucked from, seriously...a team that other teams are pouring through at Will (Scuse the pun) - not possible.
Sorry but most well regarded rugby analysts in the world regard Ben Smith as a numpty and comments such as this just reinforce that belief.
"Beating the All Blacks at least once in 2023 is absolutely imperative for Jones to carry any hope into the World Cup after two losses." Is it though? I can totally see Aus losing twice to ABs and then going to the WC, getting out of their pool, winning a quarterfinal against a middling team and then rolling the dice in a big semifinal against a top 4 side who just had to go to war to get past another top 4 side. History doesn't show a particularly strong correlation between warm up form and WC performance in head-to-heads. Take '03 when ABs put 50 on Aus in Sydney then lost to them in the WC semi. In 2019, SA beat Eng, who beat NZ, who beat Ire - all of which reversed the immediately previous match result between those sides.
That's probably Eddie's dream the sequence that you outline...but unlikely
Agree that we need Langi Gleeson in the run on side as the pack is lacking guys that can give front foot ball to the backs.