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What the Springboks must do to end the All Blacks' undefeated streak
By Ben Smith
There is a part of the Springboks psyche that explodes into action and smashes anything and anyone in front of it. Once physical ascendency is achieved, the belief grows and it becomes self-fulfilling.
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Like the Springboks side who flared up last year in Sydney to bully the Wallabies, if South Africa find that enraged persona they will be able to beat New Zealand at the home of English rugby at Twickenham.
Ian Foster has said he isn’t protecting anyone so the All Blacks are likely to field a decent team full of first-choice starters.
But there will be no Shannon Frizell to terrorise the South African pack, the man who lined up Willie le Roux and bulldozed the little playmaker in the corner at Mt Smart.
The All Blacks record with Frizell in the starting line-up at No 6 is phenomenal, over 90 per cent, at a time when the All Blacks have been well below that mark.
He will be missed and without him the advantage in the loose forwards will be with the Springboks.
That is, if they start Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Duane Vermeulen with Marco van Staden and Jasper Weise on the bench. If they are foolish and play a lock in the back row again they will miss a trick.
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The first-choice unit above will provide the power needed to dominate the gain line and annihilate the All Blacks ruck. Sam Cane will be a battered body by the end of the day trying to deal with them.
Richie Mo’unga will be like a scared cat trying to play off back foot ball and kick everything back, which South Africa’s backfield will be hoping to catch this time.
With Etzebeth and Mostert in the second row they need to actually compete at the line outs. Disrupt the ball at source and give the All Blacks nothing. No free rides this time around. It will be so much easier if they get up in the air and disrupt Codie Taylor’s initial throw.
This will help prevent the big weakness being exposed, the slow props who get gassed and often blow a tire trying to get around the park.
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Steven Kitshoff was trying to take a breather when Will Jordan unexpectedly got back to his feet and turned back in-field to run past him and the gaping hole he left open. Seconds later Aaron Smith was under the sticks for the opening try.
The Boks need as many stoppages as possible to drag the All Blacks into a stop-start set-piece game and protect the lungs of the big men.
By taking New Zealand ‘to the gutters’ they won’t let them get momentum like in the first 20 minutes in Auckland.
Malcolm Marx must start and if he is allowed to play 60 minutes the All Blacks will lose three, possibly four, key possessions to the immovable force of Marx at the breakdown.
In the backline Mannie Libbok must start at 10, as he is the only 10. Blessed with an attacking skillset, Libbok was only given 18 minutes in Auckland. It’s time for more. He brings a more rounded game than Willemse who can provide utility cover in the No 23 jersey.
Andre Esterhuizen in his starts at 12 has looked a lot better than Damian de Allende this year.
Esterhuizen hasn’t seen much action recently and must be fizzing to go. He’ll be back at Twickenham but there will be no Owen Farrell to level him out this time. He’s a power runner that is in great form, De Allende seems to be struggling to adapt back to Test rugby from Japan.
It is clear that Canan Moodie and Kurt-Lee Ardense are the best options on the wings. Nothing beats prime athleticism on the edge and the 2019 pair are past their best.
Moodie is a tall player who can get up and provide stability in the air, something that was missing at Mt Smart.
The formula is simple, field the strongest pack possible and play the backs that are in form. Then flick the switch and get to the manic level mentally driven by red mist.
The All Blacks have won the last two and scored 35 points both times. They are now looking at three in a row over the World Cup holders.
A third straight loss would absolutely signal the failure of the attempted coup to arrest Southern Hemisphere power.
BS, take that Mr Hate Speech
35-7
BS = 💩💩
Where is the "hate" in picking a winner from this game with his reasons? The fact that he was wrong only highlights that he has and is entitled to an opinion. The fact that you see that as "hate" is whimpy and childish.
Two proud teams. On their day any one can be a winner.
It's simple. Get fit and don't play like South Africa. Two things they can't do.
You mean like don't pump the AB with their biggest hiding ever in front of the biggest crowd and biggest TRV audience that has ever watched a game of rugby. Yes the AB supporters are a very modest bunch,. `they have a lot to be modest about.
If you want to beat the All Blacks you 1. have to tackle the living daylights out of them. 2. Have a good set piece 3. a backline that can take the one or two opportunities that will come. 4. A deadly kicker. We have 3/4 of those atm. So going to be tough, but possible.
All Blacks historically play to win.
This is a bit of a banana peel game though. May be better to "throw" this game in the greater scheme of things.
The big game is vs France a few weeks away and they do need a run out just to get the machine moving.
Dont think we will see any tricks, Prob a good game to run at the Boks, Will avoid trying the usual matching power for power as this may end up in some new injuries or players not at 100% for France.
Coast to coast vs a new centre pairing and some heavy forwards should open things up.
Likewise with the Boks, The Scotland game is huge.
We may finally see the Lineout try to compete- as there is only this game to get it right before Scotland. Expect the heavy artilery to be withdrawn after 55-60mins.
Something tells me that Esterhuizen-Moodie combo has been training together for a while.
All Blacks to target the rush defnse with the kick over the top to the middle again? Especially with some fast centres in Barett and Ioane?
Too many external variables to actually make a decent call on this game.
Will definitely be entertaining tho!
Ben, with due respect; You’ve just shown us that you don’t understand South African rugby and the South African psyche. It’s not about the ‘red mist’ as you put it. It’s about power and control. We don’t rage like unhinged hooligans…. Ps: it’s spelled ‘Manie’, not ‘Mannie’. Have a nice day.
"The Boks need as many stoppages as possible to drag the All Blacks into a stop-start set-piece game and protect the lungs of the big men."
ie when the bjg boppers get puffed and under the pump...cue endless cynical "injury breaks" with support saff flooding the pitch with water bottles overwhelming the match officials..ambling to lineouts...Need a ref who wont have any of it...All he has to do is two things. 1. "Play on" and 2. Warn against lineout timewastung and then hand out free kicks. Both of those will stomp out this kind lf behaviour. Then we'll see just how fit the big guys are.
The amount of illegal play is off the charts when the AB's are under pressure in their own 22m. They have developed a system of smothering teams illegally in that zone. They give away a penatly or two, but it's part of the plan. If they get a yellow or two they might change that behaviour, but no ref is brave enough to stand up to the golden boys of rugby. Sadly you have to play almost twice as good as them to get a win. the Wallabies have been the better team numerous occasions, but this is why they always lose the close ones.
Completely agree Andrew. The truth is the SA props, by international standards, aren't fit. Ponderous is the word that springs to mind.
Yeah ABs already lost...why even play?
I think they should field ABs "C" team with Akira and Clarke and BB at 10 and so on ...winning will mean nothing and losing a player like Aaaron or Mounga will derail everything
Very prophetic G. They should have you as their coach.
I suspect that the ABs will just pick an understrength team and just flick the ball around in a festival game. NZ will want to keep tactics under wraps and stars rested for the main event.
I disagree. With France in two weeks in the opener they need their best playing hard rugby. If they rest top liners, many of their best won't have played since Melbourne - a gap of six weeks to tournament start. Plus the ABs psyche is not to treat their respected rivals the Boks like a festival match. Though lets see if I'm wrong.
Bok game is evolving away from just bish bash bosh, they are scoring more tries away from mauls from corner line-outs for eg. agree re wingers. Think likely we will see 1st choice teams v ABs this weekend and hopefully we will see Manie v Finn a few weeks later - love how Nienaber is backing him - and the attacking nous he brings.
Boks have best winning % (43) at RWC, think there is a good chance they will go all the way again. If they beat Scotland they can afford to do heavy rotations including against Ireland, they now have most player depth ever.
It always makes me laugh when folk talk about how much player depth the Boks have, whilst ignoring that they don't have a single good goal kicker in the squad.
NZ has an 87% win record across all games at RWC. Boks are at 82%. ABs enjoy a 3-2 record against Boks in RWC games (including 95 where they were famously suffering from food poisoning) and no losses since against SA in the last 24 years.
Boks too old team .
Even without Frizell, there is finau scary or Jakobson in 6 . All blacks will make their best team like said foster. They have strong pack , backline on fire and good bench : Samisoni ofa or tamati Newell lord or Tupo vai Mackenzie fainganuuku ALB.
All blacks will win . They have better team.