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Where the Chiefs have the biggest edge over the Crusaders

Tupou Vaa'i of the Chiefs celebrates a penalty during the round 10 Super Rugby Pacific match between Chiefs and Crusaders at FMG Stadium Waikato, on April 29, 2023, in Hamilton, New Zealand. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

Choosing a winner of the Super Rugby final is not a straightforward task. The Chiefs have set the benchmark in 2023 by defeating every team and scoring the most and conceding the least points in the round-robin.

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Perennial winners the Crusaders have scored ten more tries and their semi-final demolition of the Blues was a ruthless example of peaking at the right time.

While the Chiefs fought torridly to overcome stubborn Australian opponents in the quarters and semis, the Crusaders soared against the unpredictable Fijian Dura and embarrassed the Blues.

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The build-up will be an overload of banal cliches about “X Factor,” “winning big moments,” “physicality” and “gain line.” Here is another cliche or truism. The team that finishes strongest will likely win the match.

Perhaps the biggest factor in the Chiefs success in 2023 has been the depth, balance, explosiveness, versatility, and clinical execution of their bench.

In the last quarter of games this season, the Chiefs have outscored opponents 151-71. They have only conceded 11 tries in 320 minutes in this period while holding five opponents scoreless in 16 games.

The Chiefs outscored the Reds 10-7 and the Brumbies 10-0 in the past fortnight to tip tense tussles in their favour. In their victories against the Crusaders, the Chiefs outscored the reigning champions 17-0 and 15-7 in the last 20 minutes.

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The Chiefs bench on Saturday was Tyrone Thompson, Ollie Norris, John Ryan, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Pita Gus Sowakula, Cortez Ratima, Josh Ioane, and Rameka Poihipi.

That’s three Maori All Blacks, two All Blacks, and an Irish international even before mentioning Ah Kuoi whose presence and hustle is most conspicuous, and youngster Ratima whose running game at halfback has been a revelation.

Thompson and Sowakula are all power and combined late to sink the Crusaders in Hamilton on April 29. Sowakula also scored the last try against the Reds on June 10. Ioane and Poihipi cover multiple positions in the backline with the bonus of Ioane’s goal-kicking.

Poihipi might not be a world-beater, but he is a model of consistency who rarely lets his side down. In 2021 he scored a late try against the Crusaders to win a game.  The enigmatic Ioane can be dazzling at his best.

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The Crusaders haven’t finished games as strongly in 2023 as they have done in the past. While they have outscored opponents 142-104 in the last 20 minutes, they have only won the last quarter eight times outright in 16 games.

Their bench on Friday night was Brodie McAlister, Kershawl Sykes-Martin, Reuben O’Neill, Dominic Gardiner, Corey Kellow, Willi Heinz, Fergus Burke, and Chay Fihaki.

With the result settled by halftime ‘impact’ wasn’t essential but could this bench change a game like the Chiefs reserves can?

On his last legs, Heinz is the only internationally capped player. Sykes-Martin and O’Neill are ring-ins while Gardiner, Kellow, Burke, and Fihaki are youngsters yet to establish themselves fully at this level.

Prior to the semi the Crusaders had used 48 players with a dozen front-liners, including eight All Blacks, unavailable for selection for the Blues fixture. There is no doubt the bench would be different with a full squad.

Still, it would be naive to discount the Crusaders’ ability to storm home with a wet sail or at least grind out a victory. So often the Crusaders find an extra level against the odds.

Since 2018 the Crusaders have won a dozen finals matches and have not once been outscored in the last quarter.

Under Scott Robertson, the Crusaders have won 97 matches. On 70 occasions they have won the last 20 minutes outright and 14 times earned parity. Of the 17 matches the Crusaders have lost since 2017 they have been outscored in the last quarter 13 times.

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Recent Crusaders history is littered with improbable comebacks. In 2017 Mitchell Hunt won games against the Reds and Highlanders with late heroics something he never looked like achieving in Dunedin. In 2018 the Crusaders beat the Waratahs from 0-29 down. In 2020 the Crusaders flipped a 17-point deficit against the Blues. David Havili kicked a drop goal in extra time to break Hurricanes hearts in 2021. This season the Crusaders were in a pickle against the Rebels in Melbourne but powered home with a 24-3 last quarter.

To beat the Crusaders, you must go the distance. The Chiefs are better equipped than any team to do that but historically the Crusaders are the greatest finishers.

Most Wins by New Zealand Teams Since 2017

Crusaders – 97

Hurricanes – 76

Chiefs – 70

Blues – 62

Highlanders – 48

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Comments

4 Comments
S
Snow 501 days ago

No matter what you do, how ever many players u have, the crusader's have and always will, save the best for last, they will keep ball in hand and the rest will be history

A
Allan 502 days ago

I'm a Crusader Forever. The Blues thought they had a great chance to beat the Crusaders at home in the playoffs. Well the Crusaders still haven't lost a playoff game at home ever! And 52 points their most ever in the playoffs, and that was without the players Nick mentioned. It will be a great game, but I'm sure the Chiefs will be very aware of what the Crusaders are capable of, so don't be surprised!

N
Nick 502 days ago

Great bench Chiefs, no significant injuries. Shows the difference losing Moody, McAllister, Newall, Whitelock, Blackadder, Grace, Havili, Reece makes. That said the Chiefs thrashed a full strength Crusaders early season. Going to be good either way.

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O
Oh no, not him again? 2 hours ago
England internationals disagree on final play execution vs All Blacks

Okay, so we blew it big time on Saturday. So rather than repeating what most people have all ready said, what do I want to see from Borthwick going forward?


Let's keep Marcus Smith on the pitch if he's fit and playing well. I was really pleased with his goal kicking. It used to be his weakness. I feel sympathy for George Ford who hadn't kicked all match and then had a kick to win the game. You hear pundits and commentators commend kickers who have come off the bench and pulled that off. Its not easy. If Steve B continues to substitute players with no clear reason then he is going to get criticised.


On paper I thought England would beat NZ if they played to their potential and didn't show NZ too much respect. Okay, the off the ball tackles certainly stopped England scoring tries, but I would have liked to see more smashing over gainlines and less kicking for position. Yes, I also know it's the Springbok endorsed world cup double winning formula but the Kiwi defence isn't the Bok defence, is it. If you have the power to put Smith on the front foot then why muzzle him? I guess what I'm saying is back, yourself. Why give the momentum to a team like NZ? Why feed the beast? Don't give the ball to NZ. Well d'uh.


Our scrum is a long term weakness. If you are going to play Itoje then he needs an ogre next door and a decent front row. Where is our third world class lock? Where are are realible front row bench replacements? The England scrum has been flakey for a while now. It blows hot and cold. Our front five bench is not world class.


On the positive side I love our starting backrow right now. I'd like to see them stick together through to the next world cup.


Anyway, there is always another Saturday.

7 Go to comments
C
CO 2 hours ago
Scott Robertson responds to criticism over All Blacks' handling errors

Robertson is more a manager of coaches than a coach so it comes down to intent of outcomes at a high level. I like his intent, I like the fact his Allblacks are really driving the outcomes however as he's pointed out the high error rates are not test level and their control of the game is driving both wins and losses. England didn't have to play a lot of rugby, they made far fewer mistakes and were extremely unlucky not to win.


In fact the English team were very early in their season and should've been comfortably beaten by an Allblacks team that had played multiple tests together.


Razor has himself recognised that to be the best they'll have to sort out the crisis levels of mistakes that have really increased since the first two tests against England.


Early tackles were a classic example of hyper enthusiasm to not give an inch, that passion that Razor has achieved is going to be formidable once the unforced errors are eliminated.


That's his secret, he's already rebuilt the passion and that's the most important aspect, its inevitable that he'll now eradicate the unforced errors. When that happens a fellow tier one nation is going to get thrashed. I don't think it will be until 2025 though.


The Allblacks will lose both tests against Ireland and France if they play high error rates rugby like they did against England.


To get the unforced errors under control he's going to be needing to handover the number eight role to Sititi and reset expectations of what loose forwards do. Establish a clear distinction with a large, swarthy lineout jumper at six that is a feared runner and dominant tackler and a turnover specialist at seven that is abrasive in contact. He'll then need to build depth behind the three starters and ruthlessly select for that group to be peaking in 2027 in hit Australian conditions on firm, dry grounds.


It's going to help him that Savea is shifting to the worst super rugby franchise where he's going to struggle behind a beaten pack every week.


The under performing loose forward trio is the key driver of the high error rates and unacceptable turn overs due to awol link work. Sititi is looking like he's superman compared to his openside and eight.


At this late stage in the season they shouldn't be operating with just the one outstanding loose forward out of four selected for the English test. That's an abject failure but I think Robertson's sacrificing link quality on purpose to build passion amongst the junior Allblacks as they see the reverential treatment the old warhorses are receiving for their long term hard graft.


It's unfortunately losing test matches and making what should be comfortable wins into nail biters but it's early in the world cup cycle so perhaps it's a sacrifice worth making.


However if this was F1 then Sam Cane would be Riccardo and Ardie would be heading into Perez territory so the loose forwards desperately need revitalisation through a rebuild over the next season to complement the formidable tight five.

28 Go to comments
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