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Where the Chiefs have the biggest edge over the Crusaders

Tupou Vaa'i of the Chiefs celebrates a penalty during the round 10 Super Rugby Pacific match between Chiefs and Crusaders at FMG Stadium Waikato, on April 29, 2023, in Hamilton, New Zealand. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

Choosing a winner of the Super Rugby final is not a straightforward task. The Chiefs have set the benchmark in 2023 by defeating every team and scoring the most and conceding the least points in the round-robin.

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Perennial winners the Crusaders have scored ten more tries and their semi-final demolition of the Blues was a ruthless example of peaking at the right time.

While the Chiefs fought torridly to overcome stubborn Australian opponents in the quarters and semis, the Crusaders soared against the unpredictable Fijian Dura and embarrassed the Blues.

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The build-up will be an overload of banal cliches about “X Factor,” “winning big moments,” “physicality” and “gain line.” Here is another cliche or truism. The team that finishes strongest will likely win the match.

Perhaps the biggest factor in the Chiefs success in 2023 has been the depth, balance, explosiveness, versatility, and clinical execution of their bench.

In the last quarter of games this season, the Chiefs have outscored opponents 151-71. They have only conceded 11 tries in 320 minutes in this period while holding five opponents scoreless in 16 games.

The Chiefs outscored the Reds 10-7 and the Brumbies 10-0 in the past fortnight to tip tense tussles in their favour. In their victories against the Crusaders, the Chiefs outscored the reigning champions 17-0 and 15-7 in the last 20 minutes.

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The Chiefs bench on Saturday was Tyrone Thompson, Ollie Norris, John Ryan, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Pita Gus Sowakula, Cortez Ratima, Josh Ioane, and Rameka Poihipi.

That’s three Maori All Blacks, two All Blacks, and an Irish international even before mentioning Ah Kuoi whose presence and hustle is most conspicuous, and youngster Ratima whose running game at halfback has been a revelation.

Thompson and Sowakula are all power and combined late to sink the Crusaders in Hamilton on April 29. Sowakula also scored the last try against the Reds on June 10. Ioane and Poihipi cover multiple positions in the backline with the bonus of Ioane’s goal-kicking.

Poihipi might not be a world-beater, but he is a model of consistency who rarely lets his side down. In 2021 he scored a late try against the Crusaders to win a game.  The enigmatic Ioane can be dazzling at his best.

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The Crusaders haven’t finished games as strongly in 2023 as they have done in the past. While they have outscored opponents 142-104 in the last 20 minutes, they have only won the last quarter eight times outright in 16 games.

Their bench on Friday night was Brodie McAlister, Kershawl Sykes-Martin, Reuben O’Neill, Dominic Gardiner, Corey Kellow, Willi Heinz, Fergus Burke, and Chay Fihaki.

With the result settled by halftime ‘impact’ wasn’t essential but could this bench change a game like the Chiefs reserves can?

On his last legs, Heinz is the only internationally capped player. Sykes-Martin and O’Neill are ring-ins while Gardiner, Kellow, Burke, and Fihaki are youngsters yet to establish themselves fully at this level.

Prior to the semi the Crusaders had used 48 players with a dozen front-liners, including eight All Blacks, unavailable for selection for the Blues fixture. There is no doubt the bench would be different with a full squad.

Still, it would be naive to discount the Crusaders’ ability to storm home with a wet sail or at least grind out a victory. So often the Crusaders find an extra level against the odds.

Since 2018 the Crusaders have won a dozen finals matches and have not once been outscored in the last quarter.

Under Scott Robertson, the Crusaders have won 97 matches. On 70 occasions they have won the last 20 minutes outright and 14 times earned parity. Of the 17 matches the Crusaders have lost since 2017 they have been outscored in the last quarter 13 times.

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Recent Crusaders history is littered with improbable comebacks. In 2017 Mitchell Hunt won games against the Reds and Highlanders with late heroics something he never looked like achieving in Dunedin. In 2018 the Crusaders beat the Waratahs from 0-29 down. In 2020 the Crusaders flipped a 17-point deficit against the Blues. David Havili kicked a drop goal in extra time to break Hurricanes hearts in 2021. This season the Crusaders were in a pickle against the Rebels in Melbourne but powered home with a 24-3 last quarter.

To beat the Crusaders, you must go the distance. The Chiefs are better equipped than any team to do that but historically the Crusaders are the greatest finishers.

Most Wins by New Zealand Teams Since 2017

Crusaders – 97

Hurricanes – 76

Chiefs – 70

Blues – 62

Highlanders – 48

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4 Comments
S
Snow 548 days ago

No matter what you do, how ever many players u have, the crusader's have and always will, save the best for last, they will keep ball in hand and the rest will be history

A
Allan 549 days ago

I'm a Crusader Forever. The Blues thought they had a great chance to beat the Crusaders at home in the playoffs. Well the Crusaders still haven't lost a playoff game at home ever! And 52 points their most ever in the playoffs, and that was without the players Nick mentioned. It will be a great game, but I'm sure the Chiefs will be very aware of what the Crusaders are capable of, so don't be surprised!

N
Nick 549 days ago

Great bench Chiefs, no significant injuries. Shows the difference losing Moody, McAllister, Newall, Whitelock, Blackadder, Grace, Havili, Reece makes. That said the Chiefs thrashed a full strength Crusaders early season. Going to be good either way.

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JW 5 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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