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Where the Springboks are weak
They say that winning masks over flaws.
For the Springboks who have started their Rugby Championship 2-0 with back-to-back victories in Australia, the cracks have been papered over by the excitement of two bonus point wins.
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However, this version of the Boks is very much a work-in-progress, which may come as a surprise to some.
They bashed up the Wallabies by 33-7 in Brisbane and were glazed from all corners of the globe despite suggestions that ’30 points’ were left out there.
And that is true, the missed points tells a story and the story is just how poor the Springboks were in the red zone that afternoon.
From their nine possessions inside the Wallabies’ 22 in the first half they scored three tries. From the mountain of possession knocking on the Wallabies line they came up with six turnovers.
Eden Etzebeth dropped it cold on the first entry, Pieter-Steph du Toit had a forward pass fly into touch on the third, one maul was sacked and turned, an attacking kick went dead, Le Roux spilled a short ball from Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, and Siya Kolisi was stripped at the base of the ruck for a knock-on.
Six turnovers inside the Wallabies’ 22 and many just five out from the try line.
From the three tries, one was scored after Hunter Paisami dropped a golden intercept chance from a Damian de Allende offload. From the second chance possession, the Springboks scored the Du Toit try.
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Had the Wallabies midfielder been better, that would have been the seventh turnover inside Australia’s 22.
The two other tries came from the real area of strength from the Springboks, the shift maul play with the double jump and Kurt-Lee Arendse’s scamper came under penalty advantage from the scrum.
Set-piece dominance was the source of those two tries. Outside of that strength, the Springboks were rather chaotic and inaccurate. The attack’s efficiency, the rate at which opportunities are converted, was concerning.
They averaged 2.3 points per 22 entry in that first half.
Nine red zone opportunities in 40 minutes against the Wallabies might become just three or four against the All Blacks. That 21 points will look more like seven to nine at 2.3 points per 22 entry.
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In the second half at Suncorp the Wallabies fought back, enjoyed more possession which left the Boks with just four 22 entries at the other end.
They conjured two tries, for a healthy return of 3.5 points per entry in the second half. Again, the weaponised maul and scrum helped.
They were bundled into touch but advantage earned at the set-piece allowed for a second chance from which they scored through Kwagga Smith.
A clean break from Jesse Kriel created a walk-in try for Arendse was the best piece of constructed play they produced that day.
In Perth their execution again was poor in the first half, understandably impacted by the wet conditions in the driving rain pouring down at Optus Stadium.
They averaged 1.5 points per 22 entry from eight visits in the first half. And that doesn’t include the bombed opportunity by Feinberg-Mngomezulu from the Cheslin Kolbe line break on a kick return.
The last pass from Kolbe was dropped by the young No 10 just outside the 22 for what was essentially a guaranteed try. That was the second try of the half that went begging after Makazole Mapimpi was stripped of possession a metre from the line after a miraculous one-on-one tackle by Tom Wright.
In the second half in Perth the Springboks bagged three tries from five 22 entries, all from the rolling maul.
The second half return of 3.8 point per 22 entry was exceptional.
But the caveat here is this was from one source, becoming a one trick pony. They tapped the only well that was providing, their strong maul. The two other attacking possessions were turned over by the Wallabies just one metre from the line.
If an opposition team is strong enough to shut down the rolling maul and de-power the Boks’ scrum, which the Wallabies weren’t, then this high-scoring juggernaut crashes back down to Earth in spectacular fashion.
Now, the Springboks do have other strengths to fall back on. Their defence is still very strong, conceding just one try over the two Tests, and their kicking out-of-hand was far superior to that shown by the Wallabies.
It will take a much more polished attacking unit than the Wallabies to score tries on the Boks’ D, and skilled kickers to win the battle through the air. Which, arguably, the All Blacks have.
In their last meeting in the Rugby World Cup final South Africa settled for just four penalty goals, all in the first half.
Without openside flanker Sam Cane, the All Blacks handled the Springboks’ pack at set-piece time. Even with the tall frame of Jordie Barrett on the flank, the All Blacks held their own. They even arguably demolished the Bok pack on the final scrum to no reward.
The key for the All Blacks is the same ahead of this tour.
Handle the scrum and maul and the Boks’ main source of tries will dry up, forcing them to rely on their goal kicker.
At Ellis Park the All Blacks can run roughshod over the Boks with the right game plan. Cape Town is a tougher proposition.
If Jason Ryan has his pack nailing the detail, particularly with Scott Barrett back, there is no reason why Razor can’t bag two in the Republic.
In this episode of Walk the Talk, Jim Hamilton chats with double World Cup winner Damian de Allende about all things Springbok rugby, including RWC2023 and the upcoming Ireland series. Watch now for free on RugbyPass TV
Pronoun=Doos
Good game managers double down on tactics that work. When the Boks scored their first maul try, the Bok fans were celebrating, the Australia fans were looking for ways to blame the ref, but the Bok game managers were thinking "rinse and repeat". If the Wallabies could not find an answer to the Bok maul it was 100% predictable that they were going to face mauls all day.
The Boks would have done the same thing with scrums, offload-based attacks, contestable kicks, or whatever else they found to be a weakness in the Wallaby defense.
I think two things are missing from this analysis:
1. It's based on a sample of two matches against the same opposition. Most rugby folk will know that one plays slightly different strategies against different opponents and in different contexts. It will be interesting to see how we play against the All Blacks. The common refrain at the moment is that we shouldn't press to go wide against them. Personally, I'm not so sure.... so long as we catch the ball!
2. The second match of this two match sample was played in the driving rain, had uncontested scrums, and some very raw Boks playing. None of this is noted as significant in Ben's analysis. It's just a footnote. Scoring 30 in those conditions is not terrible.
I think the lock battle is going to be huge, but execution between 13 and 15 when the Springboks do open their wings will be as crucial. And that should be in the Boks' hands. Catch the ball. Don't pass forward. Put it under the correct arm to protect it.
Not much of a weakness.
I’d like to see the stats from the last couple of years of springboks converting 22 entries
into points; My guess is that the last two games were outliers, and they are simple errors to fix.
And The final last year was a springbok side dead on their feet after the toughest finals run in WC history, vs a comparatively rested ABs side.
If a cohesive, rested ABs side struggles against an exhausted South African team, how will a new ABs team still getting itself together fare in South Africa?
They’ll muscle up and go home with 2 wins under their belt, that’s how.
But still. Your clutching at straws there, Ben!
Nice try Ben Smit! You so wanna be relevant its sad. Get a really job, you SUCK at writing about rugby....
Uh oh this article has riled up some of the most defensive and sensitive fans in rugby
Every rugby nation has fans who get defensive! I've seen New Zealand fans (and pundits... I'm looking at you, Geoff Wilson and Ben Smith)) lose their minds when their team has gone through slumps (partly because they took winning as a god-given right for so long), unable to accept losses and unable to attribute losses to being beaten (their losses were always due to their own mistakes or some other factor - but never because they were an inferior team). Australian commentators for many years could not accept decisions that went against their sides. The Welsh players themselves cannot abide the idea that they are being beaten when they're under the cosh and revert to badgering the referee. And then there's England... when they're doing well for any extended period of time, some of their fans and players acnnot abide criticism. It's true, we have these fans also. Doesn't mean Bryce Lawrence didn't cut deep in 2011!
And then every nation also has fans that are gracious in defeat and victory. The Saffa fans in Brighton, when we lost to Japan, are a prime example of that.
Saffa fans are hilarious. Someone writes an article that suggests they may not be perfect, and the fans get all butt-hurt. I see lots of "easy 2-0" predictions. I seem to remember there were similar predictions in 2023 when they had 2 home games against an underperforming ABs team, and the ABs managed to knock them over in their fortress at Johannesburg.
Well clearly attention to detail is not one of Ben Smith's strengths. If he had presented that article to my Chief Sub on The Cape Argus the response would have been: "Wherever you went to school - go and ask got your money back."
Another 3/10 article. It’s difficult to take a writer seriously when he can’t spell. And worse misses a spelling error in one of his opening paragraphs.
Is he too lazy to spell check? Or is he posting these articles, unsupervised, on his bus ride home from work?
But let me be less childish.
Ben’s not wrong about the boks not being clinical in closing. And leaving lots of points on the field against a building Australian side.
But he’s missing a key point. These were games where SA are themselves also building and learning new things under Tony Brown. All the elements are there, but their is a need to polish off theses capabilities.
Let’s not forget that NZ too are rebuilding (almost entirely) with a whole new coaching team and new players in key positions, and it shows. Winning ugly against England at home, and losing by a record score against Argentina at home. The knives were emerging just a few days ago… with advise being dispensed all around from how they should defend, who should be playing, and where. These are not equivalent troubles to not scoring double the number of tries you should have…
So at the very least the ABs and SA’s growing pains cancel each other out.
Nice try though Ben.
I think BS is clutching at straws. The game was played in crap weather conditions and the Boks made loads of changes. Of course it's not all going to land. It did nothing to make me feel any more confident about our ABs chances.
Oh wow. So now he is Eden Etzebeth?? BTW, AB fans, blame Ben Smith if you get thumped thoroughly next weekend. He is the cause of that fury
Ugh please know that this guy does not speak for our nation. Those are going to be two very hard games.
Was reading this without seeing who the author was and then I guessed, oh that same old dude who writes one-sided articles and can't remain impartial like a classy journalist. Hilarious, so yesterdays pizza bro
I knew as soon as I read the title that it was another fishing story directed at the Bok fans.
Going to be an easy 2-0 for the Boks, once their width game is 100% still working progress under Tony Brown, Springbok strike runners will hurt the All Blacks. Springbok forwards have got way more than the maul and scrum to hurt the All Blacks, they will soften up like they did at Twickenham
I agree 2-0 is the safe bet but I’m not bothered about Twickenham
It was a festival match
The ABs had got off a long haul flight 5 days earlier and the Boks punished them
The World Cup final was a batter gauge
Remember also the bomb squad made little difference when they got pasted at Mt Smart
Was 35-13 until a last minute try to Kwagga
Travel affected the Boks too somewhat
Still this is now and 2-0 is the safe bet
The ABs are struggling to deal without retallick Whitelock smith Mounga and Frizell
Plus new game plans from the gazillion coaches
And many players at altitude in a loooooong time
A classic BS headline
if Boks win get ready for ref/tmo/food poison/rassie/rassies dog
Then there is Jeff Wilson and Sir JK...they will start...that type of rugby is boring
It's a given that Brace will be SA's top scorer with between 9 and 12 points.
Where SA are weak.?! Click bait headline or what.! Ok they may have areas they'd like to improve, but weak.? nah I don't think so. Yes they are implementing some new methods & structure with Tony Brown, but that doesn't make them weak anywhere. The Irish series gave them some vital learnings I'm sure, particularly the Durban test. But come on man we're talking about the mighty Springboks here.!
When I saw this I COULD NOT WAIT TO READ IT.
But then again ALL rubbish.
I haven't read it, just skipped to the comments 😂
tbf the boks do need to finish better and smell blood in the water - love RSA but get the occasional sense of hesitation when we get near the line from the forwards. that said, talk is cheap and let's see what goes down in the big smoke...
Agreed. It’s weird in that we attack well from further out and then, despite our typical route one, bash it up abilities, can’t get over the line and or get impatient or spill the ball getting fancy with the passes etc.
Can be fixed and I’m sure that’s going to be a big focus of Tony’s given what he’s already been able to bring to the table.
Ah Ben
As an ABs fan..grain of salt and all that
These are stats which are mildly interesting but the Boks won with ease with 10 changes
I don’t think much of the wallabies currently (will come back to haunt me if the ABs lose to them)
The weather was a really leveller on Saturday and as he says the Boks botched several opportunities
So it’s hard to gauge how good the Boks really are as the opposition only just put a second string wales away and struggled to overcome Georgia
If the ABs get one result away that is a good return and it would be concerning for the rested Boks having lost two tests at home so far this year
This ABs side is in a big transition period
You saw two tests of SA-Irl so not so hard to judge the SAs strenghts as they can't have changed that much. NZ will be looking at the Irish series as much if not more than the two Wallaby games. Boks failed to score a try against Ireland in second test and had to rely on penalty kicks to get the score up. Ireland also showed clearly how to punch holes in the Boks defence. In this new era IMO the great strenght of NZ is when they focus on dismantling the opposition. First half against Argentina, Italy in RWC and I saw it V Ireland in RWC QF. They are better at this than any other team. The era of NZ turning up and knowing their best attacking game will be good enough is gone. They can and will attack. They just need to dismantle the opposition more. Boks do that by brute force. Ireland too but are also more nuanced. NZ's way is arguably and potentially best of all.
The work against the Argentina maul was very good last week. The dismantling of Argentian facilitated the big FH score.
well we havent seen a weak springbok team for a very long time sure some players might not have the experience as others
Welcome back Ben. I was waiting for this.
Yes, the Boks were inaccurate. We have always, acknowledged that the Boks do not finish off opportunities. The good thing is, that they are improving drastically at converting. The day that all comes together, no team, including NZ, will keep up with them.
The AB's have their own weaknesses. McKenzie at flyhalf just does not make sense. He will be exposed by all the top teams. I have the world of respect for the AB's, but for the life of me I can't understand that you play a two time world rugby player (flyhalf) of the year at fullback. Whenever he plays at 10, we (the Boks) have problems.
Having said all this.... I never write off an All Black team.
Can't wait to have them here.
Both tests will be awesome.
He sure has heck wasn’t going to post this had the ABs lost again against the Argies. He was mild and better mannered until he was emboldened by a better showing by the ABs against a weirdly worse Argentina (who they dispatched to easily so recently).
He needs to pull himself towards himself.
Beauden hasn’t been a decent 10 since 2017
He slows the backline down
He’s played almost exclusively at fullback since for the ABs and most would agree extremely well
The jury is still out on McKenzie but other than a first up kicking mare against England has kicked brilliantly for poles
And other than a few exit issues has played above average to very well
As we saw on Saturday he set people up and scored himself
He’s also a 10 by trade anyway
Glad many saffas have written him off 👍
Beauden does however interchange which I imagine is what you see when he goes in to first receiver
Curious. What chances did you make in the second test against Ireland that you could not convert? None in the first half for sure. Second half was a lot of penalties. SA could have kicked for corners I guess but clear chances?
Well SF you will get plenty of agreement from hard core ABs fans on the 10 issue. DMac is a project but Beauden is a Rolls Royce. Good luck to both teams should be fascinating
The interesting thing is both teams could beat the other by 20 on any given day. Based on what I've seen this year, I'd expect SA to edge us in both games. But hopefully the first half against Argentina last week was a sign the boys are finally listening to Razor and following instructions. If we improve as much again as we did between the two Argentina matches, we'll do well. Especially if the ref doesn't allow SA to fake injuries all game and slow things down.
Well Id have backed the ABs to score 33 and 30 v Aus in 2 tests so personally I wasnt that impressed with SA's matches. NZ doesnt have a hope based on whats happened to the two teams since the WC but Im not writing them off. Too many people have looked rather dumb writing the ABs off.
I don't think anybody writes NZ or any other top team off outside of NZ supporters heads and outraged NZ media for click bait.
My great team the ABs will go well if they don't get dealt to in the republic. The Boks are looking awesome, we are a work in progress. They will target DMac and TJ. Our weaknesses are far worse than theirs. That said the ABs can never be written off, if they can turn in one of their sparkling performances on the day it will be a different story. Will be interesting to see if they can do it, but for me the Boks are odds on.
NZ nullified Argentina's maul, scrum etc last week.
The chances/conversion rate V Australia might not be indicative. How many chances against a pier team did they get versus Ireland? Second test, very very few if any.
Ireland also showed how the SA defence can be pierced. NZ need to convert their line breaks when they happen and dismantle SAs threat in the set piece. What Ive seen so far is promising.
You make some good points Ben about the conversion rate being low. The Boks have to improve on it but basically the All Blacks have been far from perfect themselves. In 3 test matches this year they played with inaccuracy and poor intensity. Their kicking game was a mess, their forwards could not gain control, they could not get gainline percentages high enough to pull away and they struggled with the rush defence. Those were matches at home against teams ranked 5&6. They lost one of those and could and perhaps should have lost another. So yes the Boks have flaws and are not unbeatable but the question is are NZ capable of producing the kind of blood and guts performance Ireland did against the Boks away from home? because ultimately that is what they will have to do to beat this Bok team
NZs great strenght was that they always had more technical/attacking ability than other teams. But they also have more technical/dismantling ability against other teams. You tend to only see the latter when NZ are backlashing or have a lot of time/IQ on an opponent (Ireland 2023 for example). If NZ want to be the best, the must be the best at winning close contests in this new area. That requires being the best at attacking the opposition as well as dismantling them. People thought they saw a masterclass in attacking first half last week. But actually it was in dismantling.
If you dont dismantle the other team they will dismantle you. Argentina also won that way in Wellington.
Whilst I fully expect the Abs to be back on top of the Boks come RWC27 - it won't be this year. An excellent result from the republic would be to win one of the games. I haven't seen a coherent enough plan from NZ to make them favourites against a Bok team, that whilst quite limited is some respects, understands their game plan at a far deeper level than the 2024 ABs do. But who knows... maybe the refs and TMO will have a melt down like in Paris last year and just hand it to NZ??
They definitely had a meltdown last year and handed it to the juice Boks.
In my experience you make a lot more mistakes on attack against weak teams than you do against strong teams. Probably for the same reason most accidents take place within 2 kilometers of home. You are just there so much more often. Then there is also the psychological factor of relaxing when you are that far ahead.
I am sure that the All Black management will take note of the Springbok weak and that Rassie and co will do likewise.