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Who'll join Wasps, Chiefs and Saracens in the Aviva Premiership Playoffs?

Wasps booked their play-off place with a win over Northampton

One spot is still to be decided in English top flight, while over in France nine teams are still in the running for three playoff places. James Harrington takes us through the tables as the regular season nears its end.

Three out of four sorted in Premiership

Bar a little late drama, the playoff picture in England is almost complete. Wasps, Exeter and Saracens are already planning a three-week season extension, while Leicester and Bath are neck-and-neck and clear of the chasing pack in the race for that final place.

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Matt O’Connor, who started his short season at the Tigers by watching them give up an eight-point lead in 11 minutes against their run-in rivals on Saturday, has three matches to ensure his new side have a post-season shot that at one point looked well out of their reach.

Leicester’s run-in looks, on paper, marginally more straightforward than Bath’s, but both sides have several blots on their rugby landscape this season which makes their immediate futures – not to mention those of chasing duo Harlequins and Northampton Saints, who could yet spoil the party – difficult to see in the clouds within the crystal rugby ball.

One thing is certain. Whichever side does finish fourth faces a trip to one of three sides that have only lost at home twice between them all season. And those teams that have lost at home are not Wasps. Or Saracens.

Results relight Top 14’s fire…

Only advanced mathematics involving supercomputers at the CERN offices can stop La Rochelle from finishing the regular season at the head of the Top 14 table, but a bit further down things remain rather more undecided, even chaotic.

Clermont and Montpellier, too, have all but done enough to make sure of their places in the end-of-season playoffs, but nine teams are fighting it out for the remaining three playoff places.

That’s right. Nine. Into three. With three, or in some cases possibly four, matches remaining in the regular season. Toulouse, way down in 12th, are six points behind fifth-placed Pau and, therefore, not out of it. Bordeaux, in 11th, are just four points – that’s a simple win without any bonus points – outside the play-off zone.

The waters are muddied further by the fact that four teams in the running, Racing 92, Stade Francais, Montpellier, and Castres, may or may not have a game in hand, pending a court hearing. And they may or may not gain or lose points as a result of that court hearing. 

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… Except at Toulouse

Yes, admittedly, we said nine teams. In truth, it’s more like eight plus one. The Top 14 side least likely to finish in the top six is one of its biggest. Toulouse, a team that have never in their history failed to do what they are almost certainly about to fail to do.

It’s very unlikely, but it is still mathematically possible for them to be relegated. They would have to fail to score a single point in their remaining three games, while 13th-placed Grenoble would have to pick up three bonus-point wins to overtake them.

So far, unlike, say, Toulon’s Mourad Boudjellal, club president Rene Bouscatel has resisted the urge to show young coach Ugo Mola the door – but he did issue one of those dreaded votes of confidence in his manager two days before Toulouse went to Marseille and lost against Toulon.

But it’s an indication of how far the club’s star has fallen that, just five years after the most recent of their 19 French championships and seven years after their last European Cup triumph, they are contemplating relative humiliation this season, while the very real prospect of a season away from European club rugby’s top table is actually something they can barely afford.

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No wonder Bouscatel was spotted sitting in the Toulouse dugout after the Toulon defeat looking like a wet weekend in Wigan.

Three into two in the Pro 12

Leinster and Munster have the top two Pro 12 spots almost but not quite completely sewn up in the race for the playoffs. With three matches remaining leaders Leinster are two points ahead of their rivals in red from the southwest, and nine points clear of third-placed Ospreys. Barring rugby disasters, then, it’s safe to say both Pro 12 semifinals will be in Ireland. But three teams – Ospreys, Scarlets and Ulster remain firmly in the race for the final two playoff spots.

Meanwhile, in the special Italian section of the Pro 12 – which you’ll find by looking at the bottom of the table – Zebre, for so long the basement club of the competition, stole a march on rivals Treviso by claiming their second victory in as many weeks. Their 29-14 win over Newport-Gwent Dragons was the first time they had won two Pro 12 games in a row since Christmas 2015, and moved them off the bottom and into the Italian Champions Cup spot.

Watch every match of the Aviva Premiership & Top 14 streaming live on rugbypass.com, home of the best online rugby coverage including news, highlights, previews & reviews, live scores, and more!

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O
Oh no, not him again? 2 hours ago
England internationals disagree on final play execution vs All Blacks

Okay, so we blew it big time on Saturday. So rather than repeating what most people have all ready said, what do I want to see from Borthwick going forward?


Let's keep Marcus Smith on the pitch if he's fit and playing well. I was really pleased with his goal kicking. It used to be his weakness. I feel sympathy for George Ford who hadn't kicked all match and then had a kick to win the game. You hear pundits and commentators commend kickers who have come off the bench and pulled that off. Its not easy. If Steve B continues to substitute players with no clear reason then he is going to get criticised.


On paper I thought England would beat NZ if they played to their potential and didn't show NZ too much respect. Okay, the off the ball tackles certainly stopped England scoring tries, but I would have liked to see more smashing over gainlines and less kicking for position. Yes, I also know it's the Springbok endorsed world cup double winning formula but the Kiwi defence isn't the Bok defence, is it. If you have the power to put Smith on the front foot then why muzzle him? I guess what I'm saying is back, yourself. Why give the momentum to a team like NZ? Why feed the beast? Don't give the ball to NZ. Well d'uh.


Our scrum is a long term weakness. If you are going to play Itoje then he needs an ogre next door and a decent front row. Where is our third world class lock? Where are are realible front row bench replacements? The England scrum has been flakey for a while now. It blows hot and cold. Our front five bench is not world class.


On the positive side I love our starting backrow right now. I'd like to see them stick together through to the next world cup.


Anyway, there is always another Saturday.

7 Go to comments
C
CO 3 hours ago
Scott Robertson responds to criticism over All Blacks' handling errors

Robertson is more a manager of coaches than a coach so it comes down to intent of outcomes at a high level. I like his intent, I like the fact his Allblacks are really driving the outcomes however as he's pointed out the high error rates are not test level and their control of the game is driving both wins and losses. England didn't have to play a lot of rugby, they made far fewer mistakes and were extremely unlucky not to win.


In fact the English team were very early in their season and should've been comfortably beaten by an Allblacks team that had played multiple tests together.


Razor has himself recognised that to be the best they'll have to sort out the crisis levels of mistakes that have really increased since the first two tests against England.


Early tackles were a classic example of hyper enthusiasm to not give an inch, that passion that Razor has achieved is going to be formidable once the unforced errors are eliminated.


That's his secret, he's already rebuilt the passion and that's the most important aspect, its inevitable that he'll now eradicate the unforced errors. When that happens a fellow tier one nation is going to get thrashed. I don't think it will be until 2025 though.


The Allblacks will lose both tests against Ireland and France if they play high error rates rugby like they did against England.


To get the unforced errors under control he's going to be needing to handover the number eight role to Sititi and reset expectations of what loose forwards do. Establish a clear distinction with a large, swarthy lineout jumper at six that is a feared runner and dominant tackler and a turnover specialist at seven that is abrasive in contact. He'll then need to build depth behind the three starters and ruthlessly select for that group to be peaking in 2027 in hit Australian conditions on firm, dry grounds.


It's going to help him that Savea is shifting to the worst super rugby franchise where he's going to struggle behind a beaten pack every week.


The under performing loose forward trio is the key driver of the high error rates and unacceptable turn overs due to awol link work. Sititi is looking like he's superman compared to his openside and eight.


At this late stage in the season they shouldn't be operating with just the one outstanding loose forward out of four selected for the English test. That's an abject failure but I think Robertson's sacrificing link quality on purpose to build passion amongst the junior Allblacks as they see the reverential treatment the old warhorses are receiving for their long term hard graft.


It's unfortunately losing test matches and making what should be comfortable wins into nail biters but it's early in the world cup cycle so perhaps it's a sacrifice worth making.


However if this was F1 then Sam Cane would be Riccardo and Ardie would be heading into Perez territory so the loose forwards desperately need revitalisation through a rebuild over the next season to complement the formidable tight five.

28 Go to comments
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