Why a 2023 World Cup win would be the Boks' greatest

The Springboks have been an incredibly successful World Cup team with three wins from the seven tournaments they have competed in, building a formidable reputation at the showpiece event.

South Africa famously knocked off the All Blacks in the 1995 final at home, and have defeated England twice in 2007 and 2019. The three World Cup titles is equal most with New Zealand.

But success outside of World Cup years has been far more elusive, with just four Tri-Nations/Rugby Championship titles in 26 years of competition as they have struggled to build ascendency over either Australia or New Zealand.

Their four titles, 1998, 2004, 2009 and 2019, all have periods of five years or more in between drinks.

The dichotomy of this contrast is encapsulated by also possessing the unwanted stat of having the most wooden spoons in SANZAAR’s annual tournaments, with 11 since the game went professional in 1996, still more than Argentina who joined the association in 2012 ten years ago.

The equal most successful World Cup nation has delivered far less outside of it. So what is the formula that has enabled South Africa to achieve such success at the pinnacle event despite such little return in the between years?

There is no cut and dry answer, but there is one common theme in all three World Cup wins.

In every edition of the tournament they have won they were able to draw a developing tier two nation as their quarter-final opponent. In 1995 it was Western Samoa, in 2007 it was Fiji and in 2019 it was Japan.

These opponents are proud rugby nations that have given the game so much, producing many quality players, many for other countries. But when it comes to a knock-out World Cup fixture, every tier one nation would take this match-up with open arms.

It’s not a canter by any means, but victory is always likely for the game’s most resourced nations, while at the same time you can watch your biggest rivals have to verse each other and get knocked out.

In 2006 the Springboks went five from 12 and started 2007 with another lacklustre Tri-Nations with one win from four, but took home the World Cup as World Rugby’s fourth-ranked team heading into the tournament.

They did not need to play any other top four opponent, with first-ranked New Zealand getting knocked out by third-ranked France, and second-ranked Australia getting knocked out by seventh-ranked England.

South Africa were crowned the world’s best in 2007 after running through the 13th, 6th, and 7th ranked teams in their three knockout games after picking up the wooden spoon in the Tri-Nations.

The Boks have never won a World Cup without running through a tier two opponent at the quarter-final stage, which is why next year’s tournament in France will undoubtably be the nation’s greatest rugby achievement should they win back-to-back titles in France.

A quarter-final awaits against New Zealand, currently ranked third, or host nation France, ranked second, after a pool game against Ireland, currently the number one side.

The pool game against Tonga will also bring a bigger challenge than ever before with ex-internationals using the new rules to switch allegiances, while Scotland is another tier one fixture who will force South Africa to play hard.

The Springboks will have to win four out of five tier one knockout games to the win the Cup, and three in a row to finish, which they have never done through the World Cup knock-out stages.

They will have to do this while overcoming the toll they have put their playing pool through, a unique challenge they have yet to charter.

This World Cup will be the first after taking their four domestic teams to the Northern Hemisphere, creating continuous seasons for their home-based Springboks players.

The overseas-based Boks were already doing this, but now all of them are.

Eben Etzebeth recently threw his weight behind aligning completely with Europe to avoid having to battle with the Wallabies, Pumas and All Blacks through the European off-season where he could be resting his body.

At least now back contracted with the Sharks in South Africa instead of at Toulon, Etzebeth can be managed through the club season to prevent being worn thin by September, but how many Boks will slug through the next few months of summer rugby in both the Champions Cup and United Rugby Championship.

The mileage on some of this group of Springboks will be heavy, all ahead of a brutal World Cup schedule requiring every available kilojoule.

The results in November, despite two losses to Ireland and France, have offered brought optimism that the Boks will contend. Everyone knows they will contend, that is nothing new.

However, the onus is not on the challengers to prove their mettle, it is on the World Cup holders to prove they are a cut above the pack. They did not do that against the Irish and French, who will take more out of those Tests.

The Springboks defence was brutal against Ireland, suffocating most of their attack and limiting Sexton to his worst showing of the year. Had a goal kicker been on the park, South Africa might have won.

The flip side is Ireland were average themselves in executing their plans, missing Robbie Henshaw and Bundee Aki in the midfield at No 12.

The absence of both was as much responsible for their attack being out of sync as South Africa’s rush defence putting on pressure.

Down to 14-men the Boks gave a spirited fight against France to just lose by four points, however the home side were without the world’s best player for the better part of a half, had a flanker playing on the wing, a wing playing 12, and were without their ball-carrying midfielder for 70-odd minutes.

France essentially sandbagged the game shutting up shop, refusing to use most of the patterns and plays they have shown over the last three years.

The defeats left South Africa with a record of four wins from 12 Tests against the other top six nations, New Zealand (2/4), Australia (1/4), England (1/2), Ireland (0/1) and France (0/1) over the last two seasons.

To win next year’s World Cup through the death row draw would have to be South African rugby’s greatest ever triumph.

It would mean overcoming a 33 per cent win rate against the top six nations, a continuous playing calendar and be the first without meeting a tier two nation in the knock-out stages.

This is the one that would stand above all others in terms of difficulty and would hold the highest regard.