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Why a Wallabies win over the All Blacks wouldn't be a shock
By Ben Smith
The Wallabies were porous in Pretoria as Jones’ side mustered up a half-baked effort but after falling just short to Argentina, the situation is not as bad as the results suggest.
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They showed enough improvement before an injury to Len Ikitau derailed their night. It cannot be understated just how much this one incident cost the Wallabies a fortnight ago.
Having entered the game with a 6-2 bench without outside back cover, they could not afford to lose their No 13. They did, just 15 minutes into the game.
They had to put a specialist flyhalf with all but 10 minutes of experience at the international level into the midfield for three quarters of a Test match.
Having Carter Gordon at No 12 hindered both their attacking plays and defensive structure, with a lack chemistry visible. None of that was Gordon’s fault, who came up with some miraculous second efforts and put on some punishing tackles.
But his defensive reads were understandably below par and there was no established connection with either Quade Cooper or Samu Kerevi as a unit. Cooper was off clearing rucks, Gordon was stepping on his toes in defence and Kerevi was shooting up out of the line unconnected. It was shoddy and messy.
Los Pumas took advantage as a result breaking through, and around, those channels multiple times.
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To be clear, Carter Gordon is a hell of a prospect who will show this week what he is capable of in the No 10 jersey. He has the attacking game to cause the All Blacks serious headaches, with the ability to rip long passes, take the line on and ball play flat.
He should line up Richie Mo’unga early and bury him into the MCG turf with a decent shot under the ribs to remind the Crusader just exactly where he is. This isn’t going to be a walk in the park against Bernard Foley.
If Gordon can rattle Mo’unga early anything can happen. That cameo off the bench in Mendoza away from the safety of home was swept under the carpet. In front of 85,000 at the MCG there will be no place to hide.
Tate McDermott can play an up tempo game and there are plenty of threats on the end of the Wallabies backline in Marika Koroibete and Mark Nawaqanitawase.
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The only question will be whether the ball gets past Jordan Petaia, an excellent ball carrier but far from a polished distributer. If Petaia plays like a centre and not like a wing, the Wallabies could turn it on.
The pack is decent with the return of Bell, and world class players in Skelton and Valetini, but there are big question marks over Tom Hooper at openside flanker, who has been brought in to spoil the All Blacks ball more after Argentina were able to operate with a pretty clean ruck.
The big-bodied Hooper has a lot to prove after his debut in South Africa. Fraser McReight, whilst not generating any turnover ball, made 19 from 19 tackles against the Pumas and fixed up a shoddy defensive unit. They set the line a lot faster, nailed the pods, and were a lot more organised with McReight.
McReight looked much better than Michael Hooper and leaving him out against the All Blacks looks like a mistake, especially if Tom Hooper whiffs again.
They’ve got calvary on the bench with Richie Arnold, Taniela Tupou and Rob Leota to bring impact.
Tupou was absolutely key in the last win over the All Blacks in 2020 in Brisbane, he came on late and blasted through some tired legs with devastating carries and won key penalties at scrum time.
The dynamic prop is a secret weapon who can turn the momentum in the Wallabies favour, particularly if the All Blacks have to rely on Ofa Tuungafasi and Nepo Laulala, two props who have been well below their best.
The Wallabies bench on paper looks like it can match New Zealand’s.
Should the All Blacks beat the Wallabies? Yes, they should, but it feels like that every time. It’s been three years since the last win.
They are 0-2 under Eddie Jones and need a bit of luck to fall their way, whilst the All Blacks have had a dream start. No injuries, no red cards. Everything has gone perfectly to plan.
They ran amok over Argentina in the first half up by 31-0 at halftime and a 20-minute blitz against the Boks with just about all the running put them to bed early. It’s all been smooth sailing.
The Wallabies will be reaching a stage of desperation. A good kind of desperation, with the hunger and resolve to avoid the humiliation of three straight losses for their big money coach.
You couldn’t possibly pick the Wallabies on logic. But sometimes logic goes out of the window.
A bit of bad luck going the All Blacks way with some red mist in Scott Barrett’s eyes perhaps, or Shannon Frizell going from hero to villian, someway, somehow.
Wouldn’t it be classic of Frizell to back up his stellar showing at Mt Smart with a clunker, or at least a disappointing one?
Don’t bet on it, but a Wallabies win at the ‘G’ wouldn’t be a shock.
Crazier things have happened than the All Blacks losing to the Wallabies in Australia in a World Cup year.
Good call Ben 🤣 🤣 🤣
There appears to be a lot riding on this performance for the WBs. Fronting a team that, very largely, has popular fan consent, a humping by the ABs would prove very damaging.
Ikitau got injured scoring his try Ben, in the first few minutes of the game.
Gordon is going to get HUGE wakeup call if he's starting. It's not going to be pretty but it is needed prep for the Lion's in a few years. He's strong and exuberant enough to both recover and learn from it because I doubt he's taken leading the Wallabies seriously up to now. No better time to release what he needs to accomplish.
Sadly, the same can still be said for Petaia. He did look to be making some small strides this year though if I recall, hopefully and injury free run will set off from here.
It can be understated, it cannot be overstated. 😉
Ben Smith should be writing at The Roar not Rugby Pass. He sounds just like Christy Doran !
"Cannot be understated" is probably not the phrase you were looking for.
"Cannot be overstated"? "Should not be under-estimated? "Should be acknowledged"?
Not failing to understand double negatives can be non-trivial.
This article reads like tabloid journalism.
You don't have to be Captain Blindingly Obvious to realise that the Wallabies beating NZ tomorrow will be the shock result of the Rugby Championship, thus far.