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Why Quinn Tupaea's selection in the All Blacks was always inevitable

(Photo by Michael Bradley/Getty Images)

Quinn Tupaea has always been a player with extremely high prospects in the shadows ahead.

The scary thing is that his career is really only beginning on the main stage. Tupaea certainly hadn’t let go of his All Blacks ambitions following his untimely knee injury two months ago, he just thought his shot would have to wait another season.

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Ian Foster’s first All Blacks squad for 2021 packs a punch, but not in the way some may have expected. This is a team that is built around established experience but also leaves a lot of headroom for new talent that Foster and co see as the future in some very key positions.

As one of the four new faces, Tupaea really stands out as one who could bolster the physicality in the midfield.

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Sir John Kirwan on if All Blacks can innovate their game to keep up with the northern hemisphere

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Sir John Kirwan on if All Blacks can innovate their game to keep up with the northern hemisphere

It has taken less than three years as a professional for the laid-back character to achieve international selection.

It all started in school rugby. With the luxury of representing Hamilton Boy’s High School, there is little doubt that cutting his teeth at one of the best rugby schools in New Zealand under a coach with the pedigree of Nigel Hotham put the 22-year old in great position to go forward with what were undeniable skill sets.

As it turns out, this was also when Tupaea discovered a drive to one day be an All Black.

“I started really thinking about it when I was at high school in Year 12 and 13 when I was playing First XV”, Tupaea told media on Tuesday.

“It’s exciting to be in the All Blacks setup and to learn off the experienced midfielders they have there is pretty exciting too so it will be about me getting in there and developing my game.”

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It’s the midfield which has garnered a lot of attention in the build-up to first All Black squad announcement of the year.

The policy of selecting new players such as Tupaea to develop them for future stardom is a ploy not unheard of within the All Blacks and it may again turn out to be a smart move.

Some might say that the big, blasting ball-runner is still unseen in this particular back line. Ngani Laumape fitted that role perfectly, and with him completely out of the picture, the challenge is to find that next genuine physical specimen that can keep opposition defences two to a man at any time.

The All Blacks need to find this asset fast, for the health of others in the midfield if anything else. What’s also true is that the eyes don’t lie in rugby. Tupaea could be the man for this role at some point in the future.

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Many would’ve noticed that he elevated his game to another level this season. Of note, the performance that Tupaea put in against the Blues during Super Rugby Aotearoa showed a new level of intensity to his running and power game.

During the 2020/21 offseason, it was noticeable to all in Chiefs country that Tupaea had added some weight to his 97kg frame.

Coupled with a desire to get involved and carry harder, Tupaea says he won’t be arriving into the All Blacks environment lacking any confidence.

“I’m pretty confident in my ball carrying abilities and would like to think I work pretty hard around the field supporting players and working hard on defence making tackles.

“Learning game plans for me this year and last year has become pretty easy and the habits I’ve had during game weeks about learning stuff. I’m pretty confident in learning a new playbook and being able to use that on the field.”

Confidence, you sense, has carried Tupaea well through his journey from schoolboy star, captaining New Zealand Schools, making a serious impression with Waikato in the NPC, and then the Chiefs in Super Rugby.

Couple that with the evidence that this confidence can be backed up, perhaps it was inevitable that Foster and the All Blacks would come calling.

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R
RedWarrior 1 hour ago
Three-way race to be number one in World Rugby men's rankings

IF SA and NZ win then its 1,2,3 SA/NZ/IRL Otherwise as you were. This is largely irrelevant beyond bragging rights.


As I have pointed out elsewhere the practical use of the Rankings is to determine the seedings bands for the RWC draw. The draw takes place early 2026 and hopefully the rankings will be taken from then.


Important to be in the top 6, the top 12. (and likely the top 4).

This is because there are now 6 groups in the RWC 2027.

If you are in top 6 you are in Seeding Band 1. That means none of the other top 6 will be in your group.

Seeding Band 2 are teams from 7-12, who will have a top 6 team but no other 7-12 team.

After England's defeat by NZ there is clear water between NZ in 3rd, France in 4th and England in 5th. England are desperate for top4, ill come back and explain why later.

Lets look at Seeding Band 1 and 6th place. If you make 6th, no top 6 team is in your group, you are top dog. If you win your group, you won't be facing a top 6 team in your 1/8th final, you will be facing a weaker team. If you fail to make 6th place you WILL have a top 6 team in your group and if you don't win your group you WILL (probably) meet a top 6 in the 1/8 final. That's massive.


Its Argentina holding 6th now. Assuming England hold 5th, then its a 4 horse race for 6th. Argentina, Scotland, Italy and ...Australia. (ranked 6,7,8,9)

Australia play the Lions in NH summer 2025 they are running out of time to get up to 6th for their own RWC. They MUST make a move now. They must beat Wales and they really must beat Scotland to gain points and take points off them. Could they surprise England or Ireland? England may be the better bet but Schmidt knows Ireland so well having masterminded their downfall in France.

Another one to watch is Italy V Argentina. Italy are ambitious and they will want to start pushing the likes of Argentina. If they win this they are still in the hunt. Well worth a watch either way.


Top4: I think the top 6 will be seeded, all the way through from the draw. If thats the case then the top 4 will be seeded to avoid each other until the semi. Good for more certainty around ticket sales etc. That's a possible reason why England want in there. You're not in there you are hitting a top 4 team in a QF. That's an extra 50:50 match you can do without and avoid by being top 4.


Lets look at what Seeding bands might look like with todays rankings:


Seeding Band 1

IRE/SA/NZ/FRA/ENG/ARG

Seeding Band 2

SCO/ITA/AUS/FIJ/WAL/GEO


Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if in top 6

Strongest pool opponent: FIJI

1/8 final opponent GEORGIA

Prognosis: advance to 1/4 and potentially beyond


Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if NOT in top 6

Strongest pool opponent: SOUTH AFRICA

1/8 final opponent NEW ZEALAND

Prognosis: You know the prognosis


I am pretty sure this is not lost on Joe Schmidt?


Keep in mind when enjoying the matches.

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