Why the Wallabies will go further than the ABs at next year's RWC

Australian rugby fans have had a tough year – there’s no hiding from that – as they’ve watched their wounded Wallabies lose Test after Test by agonisingly small margins.

While the Wallabies were able to avoid their worst season since 1958 with an epic comeback win over Wales last month, their shortcomings can’t be forgotten.

Aside from the occasional win, 2022 has been a year filled with pain, sadness and frustration for rugby fans who call Australia home.

But there’s hope.

There is light at the end of the tunnel.

As impossible as it may seem at first, the Wallabies have a chance to create some history in France next year – and it involves the All Blacks.

Trans-Tasman rivals New Zealand have a decorated history at World Cups, which has included three tournament triumphs in 1987, 2011 and 2015.

While the high expectations of an incredibly passionate fan base drives the All Blacks, so does the legacy of the coveted black jersey – they must do it justice every time they take the field.

But there’s a very real possibility that 2023 could be a year to forget for the All Blacks, as the men in gold look to claim some bragging rights.

The Wallabies and All Blacks have had very different World Cup trajectories since England legend Jonny Wilkinson famously kicked the winning drop goal in the 2003 final with his right foot.

Australia had fallen painfully short of back-to-back World Cup crowns, and the fandom behind the 15-man code took a hit in the years that followed.

Traditional winter sports rugby league and AFL surged in popularity while rugby struggled; the former giant of Australian sport fell to unwanted lows.

Ultimately, Australians love to support winning teams and the Wallabies have failed to earn that moniker over a consistent period for quite some time.

The Wallabies have been dominated in the Bledisloe Cup for more than 20 years, have failed to win regular Tri Nations/The Rugby Championship titles, and have been kept in the shadow of their fiercest rivals at World Cups.

Australia haven’t progressed further than the All Blacks at any World Cup since 2003, which will mark a 20 year span of inferiority by the time next year’s tournament rolls around.

But now is the time for Australian rugby fans to take a risk, to open their hearts and to dream big.

The Wallabies, currently ranked sixth in the world, are largely be considered nothing more than a dark horse ahead of next year’s Cup.

The men in gold were able to record statement wins over the likes of England and South Africa this year, and controversially lost a thriller to the All Blacks in Melbourne.

While wins proved hard to come back across their 14 Tests, the Wallabies can also be proud of their efforts against both France and Ireland – as the world’s top two teams were pushed in an unfamiliar way.

Optimistically, there is hope after the year that was, and they can look to an eerily similar 2015 World Cup run for both hope and motivation.

In 2014, they had lost eight of their 14 Test matches, but peaked just in time en route to the final.

Nobody expected that of the Wallabies then, and here we are again eight years later as history begins to repeat.

However, international rugby is a different beast today.

Test rugby had never been this competitive, and the Wallabies would’ve learnt some valuable lessons this year on the back of that – but that’s the challenge that awaits all who take the field in France.

If the Wallabies fail to develop any consistency in these big Tests across 80 minutes, then like many dark horses in any of your other favourite sports, they may be left to rue what could’ve been if they had got it right.

In a painfully simplistic way, there are only two things that stand in the Wallabies way of progressing further than the All Blacks: themselves and their opponents.

Obviously, right?

While the Wallabies’ discipline was the worst of any Tier One nation this year, that can be addressed and fixed. Instead, maintaining injuries is the key for the men in gold.

If the Wallabies are to take that next step in their evolution as a once a great rugby nation looking to return to former glory, then they need their best players on the park.

Australia were without some key stars this year, including chief playmaker Quade Cooper and world-class centre Samu Kerevi.

But the injury crisis goes well beyond just two players – 51 players donned Wallaby gold this year, and some other familiar faces didn’t play at all.

But should Australia address these injury challenges, they can boast one of the best backlines in the world.

In comparison, the All Blacks have had some injury concerns of their own this year, although it hasn’t been anywhere near as bad.

Yet, there are still plenty of questions that remain unanswered about the All Blacks – including key combinations, who should captain the team, and more.

But to be fair, potential doesn’t win you Tests; talent doesn’t win you World Cup games if talent is on the sidelines.

They just have to get that right.

Other than the men in the mirror for both nations, their opponents pose an obvious threat to their World Cup dreams.

The Wallabies were drawn in a pool with familiar foes Wales and Fiji, and they’d be expected to top that group – especially considering the form Wales are in, which has made Australia look like the Globetrotters.

Should they top their pool, Australia would likely book a date in the quarter-finals against either Argentina or Japan.

But on the other side of the draw, the All Blacks will have to overcome the might of tournament hosts France in pool play, before moving on to some equally as tough challenges in the knockout rounds.

A crunch clash with Ireland, Scotland or South Africa awaits the All Blacks, and from what we saw from the men in black this year, any of those matchups would be far from a sure thing.

This is a team who are expected to win. Anything less is a failure in the eyes of New Zealand rugby fans.

While the All Blacks have reigned supreme over the Southern Hemisphere rugby for practically forever, the Wallabies’ path to the World Cup semi-finals is simply easier.

A lot easier, in fact.

If the men in gold can select their best talent, then a Wallabies team at full strength should be good enough to sneak into the semi-finals.

As for the All Blacks, they’ll be playing with the weight of a nation on their shoulders, and it could be too much.

What’s undeniable though, as it is with every World Cup, history will be made at next year’s tournament.

But after decades of lackluster performances, the Wallabies have a golden opportunity to rewrite their own history and to usher in a new generation which promises so much.