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Why the Wallabies will win this year's World Cup

(Photo by Ian Cook - CameraSport via Getty Images)

It would go down in history as the most incredible World Cup triumph of all time, but the Wallabies could stun rugby fans around the globe later this year.

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The Wallabies have been written off by many pundits and fans around the world; cast aside as nothing more than a fallen giant of the sport known as rugby union.

Even Stirling Mortlock, who captained the Wallabies at the 2007 World Cup, insisted Australia is “no chance” of winning this year’s tournament following their shock loss to Italy last November.

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Ouch.

And let’s face it, that first-ever loss to the Azzurri was only the tip of the iceberg.

The Wallabies avoided their worst ever season since 1958 with an incredible comeback win over Wales during the Autumn Nations Series.

Australia fought valiantly in the final quarter of the test, as they overturned a 19-point deficit to stun the Cardiff crowd.

But that victory, while impressive, doesn’t exactly right the wrongs from the year that was. It was a disastrous campaign, and that’s concerning going into a World Cup year.

But not all hope is lost.

In reality, the Wallabies weren’t themselves last year – they were the wounded Wallabies, and they still managed to challenge some of the best teams in the world.

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More than 50 players donned the coveted gold jersey last year, as the Wallabies experienced what can only be described as an injury crisis.

Coach Dave Rennie was unable to pick his best team week-to-week, so the Wallabies lacked cohesion in some key positions out on the field.

But even still, without superstars such as Quade Cooper, Samu Kerevi, Angus Bell and Matt Philip, the men in gold managed to showcase their flair.

While wins proved hard to come by, they did fall agonisingly short of wins over Ireland, France and the All Blacks – the top three teams in the world. And they probably deserved to win these matches too.

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Australia did manage to record statement wins over England and South Africa this year; in review, proving to the rugby world that they can match it with the top five teams in the world.

And then there’s the Wallabies, currently ranked sixth in the world, who are widely considered a dark horse for this year’s World Cup as opposed to a contender.

Yes, rugby is a results driven business, but the Wallabies are frustratingly underrated.

If they had their best players to pick from, which they should do next year, then they’ll be more than capable of an upset or two. In fact, with Cooper and Kerevi back in the fold, they’ll have the best backline in the world.

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The Wallabies will be raring to go by the time the World Cup rolls around, and they can take some confidence out of the tournaments draw as well.

As it stands, the Wallabies won’t have to face any of the top four teams in the men’s world rankings until at least the semi-finals.

Australia have been drawn in a pool along with familiar foes Wales and Fiji – two teams they played against at both the 2015 and 2019 World Cups.

Wales are a mess; they’re a shadow of their former selves at the moment. As for Fiji, they’re capable of an upset as we saw at the 2007 tournament, but Australia has the talent to record a comfortable win.

Should everything go to plan and Australia tops Pool C, then they’ll probably face either Japan or Argentina in the quarterfinal – presuming England tops that group.

Los Pumas did a number on the Wallabies in Mendoza last year, beating them 48-17 in August. It was a vastly different performance from both teams following Australia’s 15-point win the week before.

The Rugby Championship will be a telling indicator of where these two teams are at mere months out from the Cup, but the Wallabies will be better.

They just have to be.

If they can do what they did going into 2015, where they learnt from their mistakes, then the Wallabies will pose a threat. They’re a better team than Argentina, but it’s up to them to prove that when it counts.

A semi-final clash with one of the top four teams in World Rugby would await the men in gold.

Again, Australia showed that they can match it with these teams, and with their best players fit and available, there’s no reason why they can’t win any of these matchups.

The Wallabies are a team with nothing to lose. That’s not to say they’re playing without pressure, no team is, but I’m sure they’ll happily adopt the underdog tag at this stage of the tournament.

Whether they play Ireland, France, New Zealand or South Africa in this hypothetical semi-final, it wouldn’t matter.

These four teams would’ve faced at least one other top four side in pool play, and another giant of the international game in the quarters.

Fatigue and pressure make a difference at World Cups. These four teams will be feeling it more than the Wallabies.

The rugby world could than bear witness to a potential blockbuster between England and Australia, 20 years on from their final at the 2003 tournament.

On the other hand, they could potentially face any of the four teams I just mentioned above.

It’s all hypothetical, but especially in a final, anything can happen.

The Wallabies will have the best backline in international rugby next year. Their forward pack will be much improved after a review this offseason.

Michael Hooper is returning to career-best form, and whether he’s got the captaincy or not, he’ll continue to lead by example as he always has.

Their Achilles heel will be their discipline, and that was ultimately the difference in some thrilling tests this year.

But should they get that right, and have their best players to choose from, then Australia can make the most of the ‘easier’ side of the draw.

The New Year is a time for optimism; it’s a time for dreams, ambition and desire.

Don’t sleep on the Wallabies because a new year is upon us, and they’ll be a very different team – just watch.

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Comments

5 Comments
J
JB 667 days ago

The Wallabies are definitely better than last years results, and who knows maybe they will pull something off. Rennie is an outstanding coach (even allowing for the injuries his intense trainings produce). But, anyone who thinks they have the best backline in the world is not paying attention to what else is out there. The Wallabies have good backs, but France have an outstanding backline, as do Ireland when Sexton is playing, the Springboks backline is starting to look scary, even England have a backline that’s just as good as the Wallabies when they get their selection right (Marcus Smith even plays a little like a young Quade). The All Blacks easily match the Wallabies in the backline too. But none of this matters much when the single most important factor in international rugby nowadays is physicality. These backlines all match up, so it’s in the forwards where the difference is made.

B
Brett 669 days ago

I agree the wallabies are a lot better than what their record shows on their day they can beat any team

G
Graeme 669 days ago

What a dreamer.
WILL WIN
Never!

G
Gerald 669 days ago

Fully agree with the article. Rennie is a bloody good coach, and while the results the last 2 years have been scratchy, they have the rugby IQ once they enter a tournament to get to the business end. Will take a punt on the Aussies.

C
CRZ38L 669 days ago

They'll have to do it with a new attack coach, Wisemantel resigned only today.

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O
Oh no, not him again? 2 hours ago
England internationals disagree on final play execution vs All Blacks

Okay, so we blew it big time on Saturday. So rather than repeating what most people have all ready said, what do I want to see from Borthwick going forward?


Let's keep Marcus Smith on the pitch if he's fit and playing well. I was really pleased with his goal kicking. It used to be his weakness. I feel sympathy for George Ford who hadn't kicked all match and then had a kick to win the game. You hear pundits and commentators commend kickers who have come off the bench and pulled that off. Its not easy. If Steve B continues to substitute players with no clear reason then he is going to get criticised.


On paper I thought England would beat NZ if they played to their potential and didn't show NZ too much respect. Okay, the off the ball tackles certainly stopped England scoring tries, but I would have liked to see more smashing over gainlines and less kicking for position. Yes, I also know it's the Springbok endorsed world cup double winning formula but the Kiwi defence isn't the Bok defence, is it. If you have the power to put Smith on the front foot then why muzzle him? I guess what I'm saying is back, yourself. Why give the momentum to a team like NZ? Why feed the beast? Don't give the ball to NZ. Well d'uh.


Our scrum is a long term weakness. If you are going to play Itoje then he needs an ogre next door and a decent front row. Where is our third world class lock? Where are are realible front row bench replacements? The England scrum has been flakey for a while now. It blows hot and cold. Our front five bench is not world class.


On the positive side I love our starting backrow right now. I'd like to see them stick together through to the next world cup.


Anyway, there is always another Saturday.

7 Go to comments
C
CO 2 hours ago
Scott Robertson responds to criticism over All Blacks' handling errors

Robertson is more a manager of coaches than a coach so it comes down to intent of outcomes at a high level. I like his intent, I like the fact his Allblacks are really driving the outcomes however as he's pointed out the high error rates are not test level and their control of the game is driving both wins and losses. England didn't have to play a lot of rugby, they made far fewer mistakes and were extremely unlucky not to win.


In fact the English team were very early in their season and should've been comfortably beaten by an Allblacks team that had played multiple tests together.


Razor has himself recognised that to be the best they'll have to sort out the crisis levels of mistakes that have really increased since the first two tests against England.


Early tackles were a classic example of hyper enthusiasm to not give an inch, that passion that Razor has achieved is going to be formidable once the unforced errors are eliminated.


That's his secret, he's already rebuilt the passion and that's the most important aspect, its inevitable that he'll now eradicate the unforced errors. When that happens a fellow tier one nation is going to get thrashed. I don't think it will be until 2025 though.


The Allblacks will lose both tests against Ireland and France if they play high error rates rugby like they did against England.


To get the unforced errors under control he's going to be needing to handover the number eight role to Sititi and reset expectations of what loose forwards do. Establish a clear distinction with a large, swarthy lineout jumper at six that is a feared runner and dominant tackler and a turnover specialist at seven that is abrasive in contact. He'll then need to build depth behind the three starters and ruthlessly select for that group to be peaking in 2027 in hit Australian conditions on firm, dry grounds.


It's going to help him that Savea is shifting to the worst super rugby franchise where he's going to struggle behind a beaten pack every week.


The under performing loose forward trio is the key driver of the high error rates and unacceptable turn overs due to awol link work. Sititi is looking like he's superman compared to his openside and eight.


At this late stage in the season they shouldn't be operating with just the one outstanding loose forward out of four selected for the English test. That's an abject failure but I think Robertson's sacrificing link quality on purpose to build passion amongst the junior Allblacks as they see the reverential treatment the old warhorses are receiving for their long term hard graft.


It's unfortunately losing test matches and making what should be comfortable wins into nail biters but it's early in the world cup cycle so perhaps it's a sacrifice worth making.


However if this was F1 then Sam Cane would be Riccardo and Ardie would be heading into Perez territory so the loose forwards desperately need revitalisation through a rebuild over the next season to complement the formidable tight five.

28 Go to comments
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