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Why Wales fans should be confident as they chase first win in Dublin since 2012

welsh piece 2

With 32 seconds to go before the clock went red, Alun Wyn Jones slapped his front five heartily on the backs, as if to say, ‘job done, one final push’. A minute later Wales delivered, as Josh Adams powered over the line for a fifth try to finally put Italy out of their misery. Like an Audley Harrison sham-fight, Franco Smith’s men had barely laid a glove on Wales. There was no cohesion, little guile in midfield and precious little urgency.

In the build-up to the game, Jake Polledri, their brilliant Gloucester backrow, discussed having a grandmother from Abertillery and you wouldn’t have blamed him for casting his eyes enviously in the direction of Nick Tompkins, who also has Welsh lineage through his late maternal grandmother, Enid. Had she been alive, she would have been dancing in the streets of Wrexham such was the impact her son made. The 25-year-old can be filed as another player who, for whatever reason, was deemed not worthy of a call-up to the England squad but who will significantly enhance the options available to Wayne Pivac.

https://twitter.com/AndyGoode10/status/1224290381250158592

In the post-match wrap-up, the Welsh management felt the positives outweighed the negatives and RugbyPass agreed…

Dan is the man

Dan Biggar has, at times, cut a frustrated figure on the field of play. Such is his competitive streak that when he cannot bend Wales’ fortunes to his will, he vents, to the point it’s a part of his on-field persona but against Italy, he had the mien of a man comfortable in his own skin. In the first 15 minutes, he swept the ball confidently through the uprights from varying angles and showed his kicking accuracy from hand by launching a penalty kick 40m on the right hand touchline beyond a covering Mattia Bellini to leave him shaken and stirred.

There is an inclination in Wales to typecast a fly-half, so for some Dan Biggar is your steady-Eddie, in the Neil Jenkins and Stephen Jones mould, whereas Gareth Anscombe is more you Jonathan Davies or Barry John, adept at adding a little stardust to proceedings but the truth is more nuanced. Biggar has been given licence to express himself under Chris Boyd at Northampton, and has responded by playing some of the best rugby of his career.

A case in point came on 20 minutes, When the ball was moved to the blindside by Tomos Williams. Biggar’s feet weren’t quite aligned square to take the ball square on so he improvised and flicked the ball under his legs in a similar fashion to Carlos Spencer in his pomp. Fortunately, the evert-alert Adams was able to gather while Italy ball-watched and dot down on the same patch of grass that welcomed his first try. The split-second intake of breath when the crowd sensed a missed chance to the explosion of noise and awe at seeing what Biggar had done was something to behold. Biggar had reason to privately think, ‘are you watching JJ Williams?’.

https://twitter.com/RugbyPass/status/1224276442646765568

The importance of a multi-sport background

Shane Williams had a gymnastic background that gave him the ability to do the unexpected on a rugby field. In 2008, this writer was left open-mouthed as he stepped Australia’s Drew Mitchell, no slouch by anyone’s estimation, from a standing start in the tramlines, by using his athleticism. He sent the Wallaby one way and then the other before accelerating past him. Tomos Williams is another who brings audacious skills learnt in another sport to rugby. He represented Wales at basketball at age-grade level and he too, has the knack of doing things that require a second-take. On 58 minutes he received a pass that was above his head but caught it with one hand and nonchalantly held it aloft for one second, like a boxer celebrating with his newly won belt, before pulling the ball into his chest and stepping into contact. It was an impudent piece of skill in a lively 60 minutes for the scrum-half. He didn’t allow Italian scrum-half Callum Braley any time to breathe around the fringes, constantly harrying, arguing the toss and sniping.

Early on Williams put a speculative left-footed kick behind the Italian defence and it was the scrum-half who put the pressure on the Azzurri with a probing dink over the top that saw Wales within five metres of the Italian line before they cleared. Not everything came off. He also whipped a flat pass to the onrushing Hadleigh Parkes five metres out but it was cut out by Carlo Canna and the Italians cleared but what draws admiration is his invention and sense of adventure. Rhys Webb was left no doubt his place in the Wales 23 is far from assured.

https://twitter.com/RugbyPass/status/1224272138594590720

Every side needs their ‘grunters’

While Wales could point to having carried 563m with the ball in hand, they know it can’t be done without the grunters putting in the unheralded dirty work. In the pack, Jake Ball, with his Canadian lumberjack’s beard, is one such player. His job is not complicated. He is there to clear out defenders, as he did after Halfpenny’s brilliant regathering of the high ball, and throw his 6ft 6in, 19st frame into contact repeatedly, until exhaustion. The sight of the big Scarlet grimacing as his lungs scream for air is now a regular sight.

He was aided and abetted by Alun Wyn Jones who similarly held up ball, carried tacklers backwards in a fine display of lock forward play, while in the backline, it is Hadleigh Parkes who performs this role. He thundered into contact, making precious yards and on the other side of the ball, threw himself at ball-carriers with little regard for his safety. He also showed his footballing skills with a mighty clearance. Without these hardy types, Wales simply wouldn’t function.

https://twitter.com/RugbyPass/status/1224267416705945600

Wainwright replicating Warburton is no longer a joke

When Robin McBryde quipped that Aaron Wainwright reminded him of Sam Warburton before the World Cup, there were many that scoffed at such a bold statement. Four months on, the suggestion is looking less and less fanciful. Against Italy, he was the standout backrow from both sides. He took clean ball off the tail of the lineout, carried aggressively around the fringes, chipped in to top the tackle count with 17 and showed his neat footwork in the wide channels.

Only 22, he seems to have the ability to reach a level of performance few others can reach and if he can work with Warburton on his breakdown influence, he could yet challenge his lauded breakdown coach in the annals of Welsh backrow fame.

https://twitter.com/RugbyPass/status/1224250034411040768

A star is born…

There was an inkling of Tompkins’ class in his 10-minute cameo at 13 early after Johnny McNicholl had departed for an HIA. First he clamped himself over the ball to win a turnover, and then his arrowed flat pass off his right hand to Leigh Halfpenny who pushed a pass onto Josh Adams for his first try of the afternoon. In the second-half, Tompkins, this time playing at 12, delivered again just as Wales needed an injection of energy in a tepid third quarter. The Saracen, picked up the ball from 35 metres, scanned ahead and set off, stepping outside one defender and bouncing his way off another to streak away and celebrate with gusto. He raised his hands to the sky to thank his maternal grandmother in a show of genuine emotion that suggests he will be no one-cap wonder in a Wales shirt.

It was Tomkins again who seemed to pounce on a loose ball, pull himself away from the Italian defence only to square up and put George North away on his outside shoulder with a perfectly-timed pass. Only for a slight knock-on saw that try scratched off. It was the little touches that showed the experienced Saracens midfielder looks set for Wales’ push for the 2023 World Cup.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B8Gj47BAnH-/

Set-piece work to do

One concern for Wales was the scrum which after a solid start, started to creak under the Italian pack and saw the penalty count rise. It gave Italy some concerted field possession to frustrate Wales. Both Wyn Jones and Dillon Lewis worked hard in the loose, with the former hitting double-figures for tackle count but with Tadhg Furlong and Cian Healy ready to give any Welsh front-row hell, Wayne Pivac will be spending some of the week in discussion with Jonathan Humphreys deciding how to address the Irish pack. Rob Evans, Leon Brown, Rhys Carre and WillGriff John will have extra incentive at training this week.

Selection posers for Wayne Pivac

The Wales coach is now two from two but his sternest test to date will come against Ireland, whom they haven’t beaten in Dublin in the Six Nations since 2012, when George North used Gordon D’Arcy as a speed bump and popped a ball out of the backdoor to Jonathan Davies to skip gleefully over. Ireland overcame a tight encounter with Scotland where they were pushed much harder than Wales, so Pivac must decide where to make changes.

He will have Elliot Dee, Owen Watkin and Gareth Davies back into the selection mix, while it maybe more sensible to introduce Liam Williams in Round Three. The Scarlets No 9 should replace a rusty looking Rhys Webb on the bench, while Tompkins has surely done enough to merit a start leaving a choice between George North and Watkin for the outside-back slot. In the pack, the back five will likely stay the same, with Moriarty and Hill ready to provide some impact from the bench, with all the decisions to be made up front. Roll on Dublin.

Watch: Sonny Bill Williams’ Toronto Wolfpack debut ends in defeat

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f
fl 33 minutes ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

"Would I'd be think"

Would I'd be think.


"Well that's one starting point for an error in your reasoning. Do you think that in regards to who should have a say in how it's setup in the future as well? Ie you would care what they think or what might be more fair for their teams (not saying your model doesn't allow them a chance)?"

Did you even read what you're replying to? I wasn't arguing for excluding south africa, I was pointing out that the idea of quantifying someone's fractional share of european rugby is entirely nonsensical. You're the one who was trying to do that.


"Yes, I was thinking about an automatic qualifier for a tier 2 side"

What proportion of european rugby are they though? Got to make sure those fractions match up! 😂


"Ultimately what I think would be better for t2 leagues would be a third comp underneath the top two tournemnts where they play a fair chunk of games, like double those two. So half a dozen euro teams along with the 2 SA and bottom bunch of premiership and top14, some Championship and div 2 sides thrown in."

I don't know if Championship sides want to be commuting to Georgia every other week.


"my thought was just to create a middle ground now which can sustain it until that time has come, were I thought yours is more likely to result in the constant change/manipulation it has been victim to"

a middle ground between the current system and a much worse system?

47 Go to comments
f
fl 48 minutes ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

"Huh? You mean last in their (4 team) pools/regions? My idea was 6/5/4, 6 the max, for guarenteed spots, with a 20 team comp max, so upto 5 WCs (which you'd make/or would be theoretically impossible to go to one league (they'd likely be solely for its participants, say 'Wales', rather than URC specifically. Preferrably). I gave 3 WC ideas for a 18 team comp, so the max URC could have (with a member union or club/team, winning all of the 6N, and Champions and Challenge Cup) would be 9."


That's a lot of words to say that I was right. If (e.g.) Glasgow won the URC and Edinburgh finished 16th, but Scotland won the six nations, Edinburgh would qualify for the Champions Cup under your system.


"And the reason say another URC (for example) member would get the spot over the other team that won the Challenge Cup, would be because they were arguable better if they finished higher in the League."

They would be arguably worse if they didn't win the Challenge Cup.


"It won't diminish desire to win the Challenge Cup, because that team may still be competing for that seed, and if theyre automatic qual anyway, it still might make them treat it more seriously"

This doesn't make sense. Giving more incentives to do well in the Challenge Cup will make people take it more seriously. My system does that and yours doesn't. Under my system, teams will "compete for the seed" by winning the Challenge Cup, under yours they won't. If a team is automatically qualified anyway why on earth would that make them treat it more seriously?


"I'm promoting the idea of a scheme that never needs to be changed again"

So am I. I'm suggesting that places could be allocated according to a UEFA style points sytem, or according to a system where each league gets 1/4 of the spots, and the remaining 1/4 go to the best performing teams from the previous season in european competition.


"Yours will promote outcry as soon as England (or any other participant) fluctates. Were as it's hard to argue about a the basis of an equal share."

Currently there is an equal share, and you are arguing against it. My system would give each side the opportunity to achieve an equal share, but with more places given to sides and leagues that perform well. This wouldn't promote outcry, it would promote teams to take european competition more seriously. Teams that lose out because they did poorly the previous year wouldn't have any grounds to complain, they would be incentivised to try harder this time around.


"This new system should not be based on the assumption of last years results/performances continuing."

That's not the assumption I'm making. I don't think the teams that perform better should be given places in the competition because they will be the best performing teams next year, but because sport should be based on merit, and teams should be rewarded for performing well.


"I'm specifically promoting my idea because I think it will do exactly what you want, increase european rugyb's importance."

how?


"I won't say I've done anything compressive"

Compressive.

47 Go to comments
J
JW 51 minutes ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

Generally disagree with what? The possibility that they would get whitewashed, or the idea they shouldn't gain access until they're good enough?


I think the first is a fairly irrelevant view, decide on the second and then worry about the first. Personally I'd have had them in a third lvl comp with all the bottom dwellers of the leagues. I liked the idea of those league clubs resting their best players, and so being able to lift their standards in the league, though, so not against the idea that T2 sides go straight into Challenge Cup, but that will be a higher level with smaller comps and I think a bit too much for them (not having followed any of their games/performances mind you).

Because I don't think that having the possibility of a team finishing outside the quarter finals to qualify automatically will be a good idea. I'd rather have a team finishing 5th in their domestic league.

fl's idea, if I can speak for him to speed things up, was for it to be semifinalists first, Champions Cup (any that somehow didn't make a league semi), then Challenge's semi finalists (which would most certainly have been outside their league semi's you'd think), then perhaps the quarter finalists of each in the same manner. I don't think he was suggesting whoever next performed best in Europe but didn't make those knockouts (like those round of 16 losers), I doubt that would ever happen.


The problem I mainly saw with his idea (much the same as you see, that league finish is a better indicator) is that you could have one of the best candidates lose in the quarters to the eventual champions, and so miss out for someone who got an easier ride, and also finished lower in the league, perhaps in their own league, and who you beat everytime.

47 Go to comments
J
JW 1 hour ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

Well I was mainly referring to my thinking about the split, which was essentially each /3 rounded up, but reliant on WCs to add buffer.


You may have been going for just a 16 team league ranking cup?


But yes, those were just ideas for how to select WCs, all very arbitrary but I think more interesting in ways than just going down a list (say like fl's) of who is next in line. Indeed in my reply to you I hinted at say the 'URC' WC spot actually being given to the Ireland pool and taken away from the Welsh pool.


It's easy to think that is excluding, and making it even harder on, a poor performing country, but this is all in context of a 18 or 20 team comp where URC (at least to those teams in the URC) got 6 places, which Wales has one side lingering around, and you'd expect should make. Imagine the spice in that 6N game with Italy, or any other of the URC members though! Everyone talks about SA joining the 6N, so not sure it will be a problem, but it would be a fairly minor one imo.


But that's a structure of the leagues were instead of thinking how to get in at the top, I started from the bottom and thought that it best those teams doing qualify for anything. Then I thought the two comps should be identical in structure. So that's were an even split comes in with creating numbers, and the 'UEFA' model you suggest using in some manner, I thought could be used for the WC's (5 in my 20 team comp) instead of those ideas of mine you pointed out.


I see Jones has waded in like his normal self when it comes to SH teams. One thing I really like about his idea is the name change to the two competitions, to Cup and Shield. Oh, and home and away matches.

47 Go to comments
f
fl 2 hours ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

"Yes I was the one who suggested to use a UEFA style point. And I guessed, that based on the last 5 years we should start with 6 top14, 6 URC and 4 Prem."

Yes I am aware that you suggested it, but you then went on to say that we should initially start with a balance that clearly wasn't derived from that system. I'm not a mind reader, so how was I to work out that you'd arrived at that balance by dint of completely having failed to remember the history of the competition.


"Again, I was the one suggesting that, but you didn't like the outcome of that."

I have no issues with the outcome of that, I had an issue with a completely random allocation of teams that you plucked out of thin air.

Interestingly its you who now seem to be renouncing the UEFA style points system, because you don't like the outcome of reducing URC representation.


"4 teams for Top14, URC and Prem, 3 teams for other leagues and the last winner, what do you think?"

What about 4 each + 4 to the best performing teams in last years competition not to have otherwise qualified? Or what about a UEFA style system where places are allocated to leagues on the basis of their performance in previous years' competitions?

There's no point including Black Lion if they're just going to get whitewashed every year, which I think would be a possibility. At most I'd support 1 team from the Rugby Europe Super Cup, or the Russian Championship being included. Maybe the best placed non-Israeli team and the Russian winners could play off every year for the spot? But honestly I think its best if they stay limited to the Challenge Cup for now.

47 Go to comments
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LONG READ Does the next Wallabies coach have to be an Australian? Does the next Wallabies coach have to be an Australian?
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