Will the All Blacks affect the upcoming NZ election?

It’s no secret that rugby means a lot to New Zealanders. There’s been studies on how our obsession for the national game affects society off the field, for example how a single test win affects the economy.

If you didn’t know, New Zealand has a general election coming up this weekend – so it’s probably worth having a look at how the results of the All Blacks have stacked up in the election years past. Especially those when there’s been a shift from one of the two major parties, Labour and National.

Elections in NZ are held towards the end of the year, after the test season is finished. In the professional era that’s meant it’s often only weeks after.

It’s almost crazy to think that something like this would affect the way people vote, but there’s been more than a few years when the All Blacks’ results mirrored that of the incumbent party’s fortunes.

1960 – One test win, National ousts Labour. Well, technically it’s two (if you count Rhodesia as a test match) on the All Blacks’ ill fated tour of South Africa. That’s all that New Zealanders could cheer about at the beginning of a decade that would see the National Party in power for the next 12 years. During the 60’s the All Blacks more or less held the rest of the rugby world in a stranglehold.

1972 – Aftermath of consecutive series defeats to Springboks and British Lions, Labour wrests power back from National. The early ‘70’s were not a great time for the All Blacks, first losing another series in South Africa then famously going down to the Lions for the only time in history.

1975 – Only one test played all year, but National campaign (among other things) on bringing re-establishing sporting relations with South Africa. They win, and the ramifications of this one were pretty far reaching. The subsequent 1976 tour to South Africa led to an Olympic boycott that year by the ANC, with 29 countries not attending the Montreal games in protest.

1981 – Test series win over Springboks, National narrowly defeat Labour. A year when rugby literally split the country in two came to a close with the ruling National party winning a close election. Almost as close as the infamous deciding third test, which was won by the All Blacks after eight minutes of added time.

1987 – All Blacks win World Cup, Labour defeats National. Labour had won the 1984 election, due in no small part to then Prime Minister Rob Muldoon calling a snap election while completely hammered, and spent the next three years alienating many of its traditional support base with free market economic reforms. It clung on for another highly controversial term in ‘87, after the country had hosted and won the inaugural World Cup.

1993 – All Blacks beat British Lions, win back Bledisloe Cup, National retains power. After winning the 1990 election, a year in which the All Blacks had their 50 match unbeaten streak broken by the Wallabies, National presided over a World Cup loss in 1991 and the controversial introduction of the Employment Contracts Act. It should be noted that the shock 15-9 loss to England in ‘93 came three weeks AFTER the election.

1999 – All Blacks knock out of World Cup, Labour crush National. Probably the most clear cut case of an All Black defeat cementing the mood of the public, the sensational defeat by France coming just a matter of weeks before the change in government. Not even a blatant election bribe by reducing the the drinking age could sway young voters, who helped usher in a Labour regime that would last until 2008…the year after the All Blacks crashed out of the World Cup quarter final in Cardiff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UVbA9ZZixI&t=348s

2011 – All Blacks win World Cup, National re-elected in a landslide. Then-Prime Minister John Key had a choice: whether to go to the polls before or after the Rugby World Cup. He chose the latter and would’ve been slightly sweating on the overwhelming favourite All Blacks’ dramatic one point win over France in the final. A month and a few victory parades to lift national spirits later, Key was re-elected comfortably.

The evidence is pretty strong that a below average All Black season will result in a change of government. In fact, it doesn’t even need to be an election year – the shock loss to Ireland last year was followed a month later by Key’s resignation.

So what do the 2017 All Blacks’ form bode for the rival political forces of New Zealand? It’s likely that this year will be remembered as the one where the All Blacks couldn’t dispatch the British & Irish Lions – which has to be seen as a failure.

However, last weekend’s demolition job of the Boks was a good sign for the incumbent National government and Prime Minister Bill English – who is a legitimate lifelong rugby fan (unlike his predecessor Key, who seemed to enjoy getting his photo taken with Richie McCaw more than the games themselves).

Meanwhile, Labour leader Jacinda Ardern has yet to be quizzed on her thoughts about the All Blacks. It is worth noting she is standing for the Mt Albert, one of New Zealand’s strongholds of rugby league – so she’ll be hoping her fortunes don’t mirror those of the Warriors.