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World Rankings: How Ireland can become number one

By Jon Newcombe
Paris , France - 23 September 2023; Bundee Aki of Ireland makes a break during the 2023 Rugby World Cup Pool B match between South Africa and Ireland at Stade de France in Paris, France. (Photo By Harry Murphy/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

Ireland could return to the top of the world rankings just under a year since they last held the position without hitting a ruck in anger this weekend.

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Ireland’s team’s 14-month reign as the world’s number one team came to an end last October when they were knocked out in the Rugby World Cup 2023 quarter-finals by New Zealand, to be replaced by South Africa.

The world champions have remained there ever since but the Springboks could be knocked off their perch if things go badly wrong against New Zealand in the third round of The Rugby Championship.

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Ellis Park has been a happy hunting ground for the All Blacks in recent years, and they won 35-23 on their last visit there in August 2022.

A slight improvement on that margin of victory by the four-time defending champions would result in the Springboks losing their number one status to Ireland, with the All Blacks also climbing above them into second place.

The All Blacks would gain 2.60 points and increase their rating to 91.32 points if this scenario pans out. But that would still leave them 0.80 points adrift of Ireland’s rating of 92.12 points. South Africa’s rating, meanwhile, would drop from 93.11 points to 90.50.

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There could be further changes to the rankings elsewhere, especially if a big away win in Johannesburg is repeated in the other three Test matches taking place this weekend.

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Australia, for instance, will move up two places to seventh if they also win by more than 15 points against Argentina in Saturday’s other Rugby Championship fixture in Buenos Aires. Any form of victory would be enough for them to leapfrog Italy into eighth. Argentina cannot improve on their present position of sixth.

Tonga have never won at Apia in the professional era but if they are able to do that, and win well in their opening match in the Asahi Super Dry Pacific Nations Cup, they will overtake Samoa in the rankings. Samoa could fall by as many as three places to 16th in defeat.

Meanwhile, Canada will become the highest-ranked North American team for the first time in nearly eight years if they go and do something that they haven’t done since 2013 – beat the USA on American soil, as long as it is by a margin of more than 15 points.

A smaller margin of victory in Carson, California would still be enough to lift Canada above Romania into the top 20, a position they have not occupied since February 2019. But yet another defeat would see them drop below Chile into 22nd.

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Of the home teams, only USA can improve their position in victory. A win by more than 15 points would take the Men’s Eagles above Spain and into 18th place.

Both Pacific Nations Cup matches are being shown live and for free on RugbyPass TV.

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Comments

34 Comments
G
GrahamVF 8 days ago

😆

R
Rocco 9 days ago

🤣 I stand corrected!

T
Terry24 11 days ago

It's only humour when I'm on the receiving end I guess?

R
Rocco 11 days ago

And humour's not your forté either ...

T
Terry24 11 days ago

Amazed you were even able to turn the clue-o-meter on son, if you're that dim. 😉

T
Terry24 11 days ago

OK. You're blocked for trolling.

N
Ninjin 11 days ago

I can yes. You lost to one of the worst AB teams in ages in a Wc quarter in a Wc you were suppose to win.🤣 10 in a row is 100%. Actually 8 in a row as 2 were pool exits🤭 Don't lose heart! Ireland will get there one day. Caillteanas tinn?

R
Rocco 12 days ago

🤦‍♂️


The clue-o-meter reads zero.

T
Terry24 12 days ago

So were you trolling? Or can you substantiate your claim that we choked in RWC 2023?

F
FC 16 days ago

Ireland always rely on permutations to become number 1.

The Boks and All Blacks WIN to get their spot.

T
Terry24 15 days ago

False, idiotic, dishonest comment. Ireland WON 17 games in a row between world cup. We beat NZ (twice), SA (twice), France (twice), England (twice), Australia (twice), Scotland (twice), etc, etc in that period.

K
KiwiSteve 16 days ago

Ireland are going to win the world CUP 🥤.

F
FC 16 days ago

You may be on to something.

I mean they have never lost a semi-final or a final in a World Cup. So they have to be a favourite...

B
Bull Shark 16 days ago

Ireland can become no.1 by doing nothing.


Great article.

J
JK 16 days ago

Maybe IRL could sit out the entire season...perma-no 1

T
Terry24 16 days ago

I will be happy with 2-0 to SA in the next two weeks. For a few reasons.

J
JK 16 days ago

this was sarcasm. Enjoy the match on Saturday

T
Terry24 16 days ago

That would apply more to SA as they lead, if you think it should apply to Ireland you must be factoring in an SA loss this weekend. I believe the ranking reduces or you disappear off the rankings after a period of time or avoid competing with peer nations.

f
fl 16 days ago

that doesn't make sense!

T
Terry24 16 days ago

Just to note the article explores the scenario of NZ winning by 15+ points which would see SA dropping to 3rd spot.

Any NZ win sees SA drop off the top spot in favour of Ireland.


SA are 93.11 + 3 for home advantage gives them 96.11

NZ are 88.71 which is a 7.4 difference

Table from https://www.world.rugby/rankings/explanation

Points gain/loss is mulitplied by 1.5 if > 15 points = 2.6 (NZ win by 15+ = 2.6 ranking points from article)

Points gain/loss = 2.6/1.5 = 1.7 (NZ win by 15-)


That makes:

IRE: 92.12

SA: 91.38

NZ: 90.44


IF SA win the two NZ matches and the remaining two against Argentina, then their top spot is safe until at least the autumn.


I don't know if or how they plan to seed the Nations Cup. For the RWC in 2027 the key date is Jan 2026, when ratings will be taken. With 6 groups in the world cup Top6/Top12/Top18 are the key target placings for various reasons.

EG If the current table is mapped to 2026, Spain currently sitting at 15th would be a second seed and avoid Arg, Jap, Sam, Fij, Geo, Ita, Ton which would be massive for them and give them a good chance of making the knock outs.

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JW 1 hour ago
How the All Blacks were caught up after 'golden decade'

Yeah that's the problem. The Bachops (RIP) and Bunces are still dual qualified of course. Perhaps the answer is actually allowing them to go from one dual qualified country to another? So those that really harbor the All Black duty still can contribute to their lineage, and world rugby. Ardie, and I think talk was even Mo'unga and Frizell, wanted to do the reverse at the end of their careers, as part of a very general (yet good) change WR made. These are far more specific circumstances however, so there really should be a specific clause to dual qualified at berth players to only have say a year standdown. I can't see abuse of that happening elsewhere. France>Spain fine, Spain>France fine, England>Wales/Ireland/Scotland great. Many of the Islanders who came to work in NZ left their children behind/specifically came over after, so a lot of kids growing up in NZ now still have direct parents born in the Islands, it wouldn't be a wasted rule.


It wouldn't apply to your Rokocoko's or Sivivatu's examples though. I don't think WR's attempt there is every going to work, I can't see the NH clubs ever changing. I think the only way is for a local competition to be their bread and butter. I also think it is the way New Zealand rugby would like there own model to function as well, but theres just not enough money to even make the general SR wage the majority of their NZR contract, let alone give that sort of money to another nations players. I think it is possible to find a way for that to happen organically, but I'd mught rather suspect WR are going to need to do more direct funding into the local game, two teams, Moana and Drua, are not going to be enough ever give all those players the true choice between which country they want to play for. It's always why I never see WR allowing SA to join the 6N.

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