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LONG READ Are we witnessing the long farewell of the Six Nations on terrestrial TV?

Are we witnessing the long farewell of the Six Nations on terrestrial TV?
3 weeks ago

Rugby’s festive season is upon us with all its traditional rites and rituals; the anticipation, the alcohol, the gatherings of far-flung clans and Cerys from Carmarthen dressed as a daffodil. It’s an age-old pageant, familiar as a friend who, essentially, time has not changed; factor in some hefty bragging rights and two months watching Louis Bielle-Biarrey cut loose and it’s why sports fans – religiously – set their alarm clocks for the end of January.

And certainly, like Christmas Dinner, it’ll be the familiar faces snuggling up in the TV studios to talk turkey.  Auntie will again have Gabby, Johnno, Jiffy, Johnny Barcs, Warby and Tommy B. And on the other channel, amidst the all-consuming plugs for crisps and car insurance, we’ll have, among a stellar squad, Mark, Jilly D, BOD, the good Doctor Roberts, Oogs, Maggie, Jonny English, Flats, Rory, Benjamin, Toulon Dan and, in a small scoop for ITV, Eddie Jones, mate. It’ll be a banquet of opinions.

And we should feast on it because while this may not be the last time we’ll get to tune in to them, it may be the last time we’ll get to tune into them gratis and for nothing. Post this, the 2025 Six Nations, the free-to-air broadcast deals expire like the last wisp of smoke from a once blazing bonfire which means that, next year, Dr Roberts’ reassuring, pitchside manner might just make a nasty dent in your credit card. Rugby’s venerable NHS looks set to be privatised.

Gabby Logan and <a href=
Tommy Bowe ” width=”1200″ height=”800″ /> Free-to-air coverage of the Six Nations is under threat with cashflow tight in the sport (Photo By Harry Murphy/ Getty Images)

TNT, so it’s said, have a war chest the size of Basingstoke. Even if Amazon Prime have nothing more to offer than the crumbs from the Bezos breakfast table, it might still be enough to blow Netflix out of the water, while exclusive access to the Six Nations has been Sky Sports’ almost desperate desire for twenty years. The very best of luck to ITV and the BBC if they end up sifting shillings with that lot.

The BBC is already hanging in there by a thread. This year they have just five of the fifteen matches, they don’t get to see France live at all, they have England once, Italy once, Ireland twice and Scotland and Wales thrice apiece. It’s a reflection of neither their excellence nor their ambition but of cold, financial reality.

Sports rights have doubled in value in the past decade while the BBC’s income has fallen 30% in real terms.

The former Head of BBC Sport, Barbara Slater, laid out the bald truth more than a year ago at a DCMS Select Committee in Westminster; sports rights have doubled in value in the past decade while the BBC’s income has fallen 30% in real terms. ‘It will come down to individual governing bodies as to how they balance reach and revenue,’ she said, looking ahead to the new Six Nations’ deal. ‘The truth is we’re probably not going to be the highest bidder.’ You suspect the word ‘probably’ was dropped into that sentence purely for decorative purposes.

But, otherwise, Barbara Slater was spot on. Reach versus Revenue is what the Six Nations has to weigh up and it’s ticklish. Financially, to a greater or lesser extent, the constituent unions are clawing the wallpaper and begging for mercy but while taking shelter behind a paywall will help weather the financial storm, what does that do for the product – ghastly word; for the sport – if you end up beyond the reach of much of your audience?

Ireland v England
The Six Nations is rugby’s crown jewel and clashes draw huge TV audiences (Photo Seb Daly/Getty Images)

Because the Six Nations isn’t just any old jockstrap knockabout. It’s annual, it’s cultural, it’s tribal and it resonates. Dripping in history and hoop-la, it occupies a perfect slot in the sporting calendar where it’s watched by some who probably couldn’t tell the difference between Ange Capuozzo and a hole in the ground and by others who have Ange Capuozzo pyjamas and who dream of playing full-back for Italy. The sport has no better advertisement for its unique appeal and you tinker with that at your peril.

But the Six Nations is also Big Business. The numbers suggest it sells a million tickets a year, has an average attendance of a staggering 72,000 and is watched worldwide by an estimated audience of 120million. City analysts reckon it could be worth around €4billion and as much as ticketing, merchandise, sponsorship and capital investment pour hundreds of millions into the coffers, the broadcast rights are the nuts of it. And all the more so if you’re not maximising that broadcast revenue, particularly when income – post the ravages of Covid – is in such short supply.

As it stands, the tournament can be sold to the highest bidder, assuming highlights are available to non-subscribers. Which is odds on where we’re heading.

Wales sums up the predicament perfectly. The WRU have made it plain that the current free-to-air deal brings in roughly £25million a year, too little to offer long-term financial stability. We’d ‘struggle to survive’, it says. Yet, fearful of the impact of a paywall on the fabric of the sport in a rugby-mad nation, Welsh MPs lobbied Westminster to keep the Six Nations as one of the so-called ‘Crown Jewel’, free-to-air events, only to be rebuffed by the DCMS. So, as it stands, the tournament can be sold to the highest bidder, assuming highlights are available to non-subscribers. Which is odds on where we’re heading.

The Six Nations – sensibly – has asked the broadcasters to ‘explore all avenues’. Might ITV and TNT strike some kind of deal? Or, perhaps, Amazon Prime and the BBC? But, in return, will the Six Nations need to be more flexible? Are we looking at more evening kick-offs? A Super Saturday every weekend? A shortened tournament? A tie-in deal with incoming World Rugby tournaments? The Committee might well have to explore all avenues too if it wants to bank the broadcasters’ bread.

Bill McLaren
It is 23 years since, Bill McLaren, widely renowned as the ‘voice of rugby’ put his mic down for the last time in the Six Nation (Mike Finn Kelcey/Getty Images)

Which leaves the rest of us, where? Suppose, for example, you’re a Saracens fan and Amazon Prime bags the Six Nations. So now, if you want to follow Maro Itoje on TV, you’re shelling out to TNT for the Gallagher Premiership, to Premier Sports for the Champions’ Cup, to Amazon Prime for the Six Nations and to Sky Sports for the Lions. I bow to no one in my admiration for Maro but that’s a serious chunk of change.

But you suspect this is the way it’ll go, which’d leave us with the DCMS formula; a paywall with highlights – or, perhaps, delayed coverage – on terrestrial. And as awkward as that might be – telling folk they now need to fork out for what’s historically been as free as fresh air ain’t an easy sell – you can fully understand the logic if there are unions out there facing existential threats. It wouldn’t be much of a Six Nations if one of the six went bust.

Rugby needs to be careful. Test matches may be what draws the eyeballs but if the eyeballs can’t afford to tune in, they’ll look elsewhere.

But rugby needs to be careful. Test matches may be what draws the eyeballs but if the eyeballs can’t afford to tune in, they’ll look elsewhere. Cricket, to some extent, proved this. The final day of the 2005 Ashes on Channel 4 peaked at 8.4 million; the final day of the 2023 Ashes on Sky Sports hit 2.1 million. The breadth, innovation and sheer excellence of Sky’s coverage is admirable but they still ended up six million enthusiasts short. And what’s the knock-on effect of that at the grassroots of the game?

On average, the figures suggest that, right now, a Six Nations match will draw in 3-5million; indeed, France against Ireland last year in Marseille hit 6.6million for France Televisions, most of them watching from behind the sofa given the way the game went. Would Netflix hit those kind of numbers? Not in this lifetime or the next. This is what the Six Nations needs to weigh up.

Six Nations
The Six Nations captains assemble in Rome ahead of the 2025 tournament which will be viewed by tens of millions of armchair fans (Photo Giampiero Sposito/Getty Images)

But given the way the landscape has shifted on TV rights to prime sporting events, this is looking ominous for the armchair aficionados. As ITV itself has conceded, talk of a paywall is ‘probably well-founded’; that word ‘probably’ again. But then, if you have to shell out to watch Scottie Scheffler win the Masters, or Jannik Sinner walk away with the Australian Open, then why not Antoine Dupont lifting a Grand Slam? Given the astronomical cost of rocking up in person, a TV subscription feels like a bargain, assuming, of course, you can afford it.

The Six Nations, to their great credit, have held out way longer than most, even in their own sport. But long Covid has cast a long shadow and their options, perforce, are limited. So, in short, we should probably make the most of the incomparable Gabby Logan while we can. And, if it’s any consolation, I’ve absolutely no doubt she’d miss the live, free-to-air buzz of the Six Nations as sorely as the rest of us.

Comments

9 Comments
T
TM 20 days ago

Graham on the money, literally. A brilliant summary and analysis. I am clear terrestrial is in intensive care -and not coming out. The BBC is already in Charter review mode and can’t enter into rational contracting. Bye Beeb. ITV? Not looking good as advertising being squeezed by streaming. And they would have to up their production values a lot and that won’t be cheap.

So it’s going paywall: you have to play for your home pleasures these days. Mix n match? Nope, too messy and lowers the price for the unions. We are now at the fork in the road. I am a rugby nut and have all the subscriptions (I pay for my pleasure and I am ok for a couple of bob) but I don’t want to have pay for a wholly different one. I’d be happy to supplement my Amazon or Premier Sports. But I guess TNT is in the box seat for rugby in England, biggest market. Sky? Yes, please. They do great sport and have immense reach. Would I pay more for Sky for 6N? Yep. But that’s just me.


Does streaming mean poor kids will grow up not watching much rugby? Yes. But fact is they don’t much now, according to viewing figures. Rugby is pretty niche, always has been. I think a contract bringing much more into the unions is far more important for the game to thrive.

Thanks again, Graham. Nobody else could have done half as good a job on this.

g
gs 18 days ago

That's a damn fine summary in itself, Terry. I agree with you. The financial threat is borderline existential; the question will be how many concessions - pricing/delayed coverage etc - the Six Nations can wring out out of a single paywall partner. You'd suspect, not many. Thanks, as always, for taking the time to tune in. Much appreciated. GS

J
JohnB77 21 days ago

The great paradox: rugby for all or cash for the unions. I know which one I'd prefer, but as always, it's the unions that have the long-term interests of the game in their hands.

P
PS 21 days ago

We need the 6N upgraded to top tier TV. As an international tournament, surely it deserves to get the same coverrage as all other international competitions?

r
rJ 21 days ago

Short term greed of paywalls will trump the long term benefit of terrestrial.

We live in an age of avarice.

The BBC is also bias against rugby as it sees it as a middle class sport for conservatives.

W
WM 21 days ago

Here in the US we have to pay "Peacock" NBC's piggy bank. $6.00 US dollars a month, not too bad but the dirty bastards dropped the HSBC 7's tournaments which RugbyPass now airs for free until they don't.

M
Mitch 23 days ago

Putting the 6Nations behind a paywall would represent about short gain but long term pain. Don’t do it.

R
RedWarrior 24 days ago

We have legislation in Ireland to protect key sporting occasions such as 6 nations free to air.

J
JD 17 days ago

Same here in France. Any game France plays at home must be made available on free to air TV.

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