Hands up anyone who had in mind a rampant Wallabies second-half comeback, culminating in a heartbreaking three-point loss, as they flicked on the TV or walked into Sydney’s Olympic Stadium on Saturday afternoon?
Nope, me neither.
In what I think qualifies as a game of five halves, the first trans-Tasman Test of the year saw complete New Zealand domination, a surprise Australian hit-back, a pragmatic All Blacks penalty then two more disallowed tries and ill-discipline, a Wallabies fightback that teased the unthinkable, and finally, a moment of regained control as New Zealand secured Lord Bledisloe’s massive urn for another year to the tune of 31 points to 28.
The storylines coming out of the game were plentiful.
How does a team score 28 points in 26 minutes and then only three more points from there? How does a team coming off a record loss shell three converted tries in the opening 16 minutes and somehow escape with a losing bonus point?
And how is it that the team walking away the most annoyed and dissatisfied with the result is also the one holding the trophy?
“We just didn’t quite finish those opportunities we’ve been creating all year and there’s big momentum swings,” New Zealand coach Scott Robertson said after the match.
“When the score is like that there’s always a little bit of trepidation isn’t there, in that you’ve got to keep going and get those final passes to stick… but they didn’t and we got into a hell of a battle, and found a way.”
Asked his thoughts on the All Blacks’ issues late in games that seem to have developed in 2024, the length of skipper Scott Barrett’s pause before answering probably said more than the words he finally managed.
We’re really proud of the way we worked back into the game and we’ll take the positive from that but, in saying that, we just lost to the Kiwis so we’ve got to be realistic.
“To be honest, I think it’s just execution really, that’s all it is,” Barrett said, eventually.
“In those moments it’s being steely to finish those opportunities, because we’re creating them and when we do have teams under the pump, that could be the difference between putting 20 points on them, but it’s yeah, yeah…” he added, trying to articulate the problem without saying too much more.
On the other side, the Wallabies walked that fine line between the right amount of acknowledgement of a terrible opening quarter and the right amount of pride in their ability to make a genuine contest of the rest of the game.
“We need to start better. We can’t really give a team like New Zealand that head start,” Australian captain Harry Wilson said of the 0-21 deficit facing the hosts after barely 15 minutes.
“We’re really proud of the way we worked back into the game and put ourselves in a position where we could have won it there at the end. We’ll take the positive from that but, in saying that, we just lost to the Kiwis so we’ve got to be realistic.”
Joe Schmidt was typically honest and forthright in his agreement. “You lose a Test match, so there’s things that we’ve got to learn from. We can’t finish a close second,” he said.
“There’s some things to be proud about and I totally agree with Harry around building our way back into the game, but giving a New Zealand side a start like that, it’s too tough to overcome that.”
The biggest shift for the Wallabies was the impact off the bench, and it was about as stark a difference as they get when compared to the second-half capitulation in Santa Fe a fortnight ago.
It’s not quite the mass injection of bodies à la South Africa’s famed ‘Bomb Squad’… but there is a deliberateness about Schmidt’s timing.
After arguably their best 30 minutes of rugby of the year built up a 20-3 lead, the second half became all one-way traffic as Argentina ran in try after try with waves of momentum.
And though the Wallabies had sent on their last replacements with 15 minutes still to play, there was no fresh impact from the bench, and the energy of Los Pumas over the closing stages just could not be stopped.
In truth, the timing of replacements in Sydney was very similar to those made in Santa Fe, with Schmidt following a similar replacement schedule throughout The Rugby Championship.
It’s not quite the mass injection of bodies à la South Africa’s famed ‘Bomb Squad’, with five and sometimes even six fresh forwards all going on at the 45-minute mark, but there is a deliberateness about Schmidt’s timing.
Both props have tended to have been replaced around the 45-minute mark, and the hooker somewhere in the 50-52 minute range. The lock not going the distance follows by the 55th minute, and the back-rower somewhere near the hour.
Backline replacements are generally in the 55-65 minutes range, though Noah Lolesio played 77 minutes in the 20-19 win over Argentina in La Plata, and 80 minutes in Sydney at the weekend, with Tom Lynagh staying on the bench.
At Stadium Australia, Schmidt followed his script pretty closely again. Taniela Tupou lasted four more minutes after half-time, with Angus Bell joining him on the bench in the 49th minute. Hooker Matt Faessler followed in the 52nd minute, and Nick Frost made way for Lukhan Salakaia-Loto in the 55th.
“Lukhan was coming back from injury – I thought he came on and made a really good impression off the bench,” Schmidt said. “There were a few guys who came off the bench and did a good job.”
One of them was Langi Gleeson. Rob Valetini has been the surprise casualty of Harry Wilson’s elevation to the Australian captaincy, and after playing 80 minutes in all but a couple of Super Rugby Pacific games and the July Tests, he was replaced by Gleeson in the 67th minute against the All Blacks, after they also switched just before the hour in the record loss to Argentina.
Salakaia-Loto was phenomenal, carrying twice for 30-plus metres, steamrolling Damian McKenzie in one memorable tackle bust, and making a clean break as well.
His inclusion came at the time New Zealand had more tries disallowed, and Australia’s wet sail was slowly being hoisted. Impact like ‘LSLs’ slotted into the broader growing confidence perfectly, and Hunter Paisami scored the first try of the second-half comeback in the 67th minute.
But if this is a tale of two benches, the contrast to the impact of the Wallabies’ replacements was what didn’t materialise from the All Blacks’ reserves, and the seemingly ad-hoc way Robertson is deploying numbers 16 to 23.
‘Deploy’ is the right word here, too. The coaches using their bench players well – and Rassie Erasmus is the standout here – have properly embraced the idea of the ‘match-day 23’ and are sending their fresh players into the contest in numbers and, more often than not, at the right time.
While asking his tight forwards go deep into games, Robertson has also seen his side struggle to score in the last quarter. It’s a curious thing to observe in a team so renowned for their clinical late-game finishing.
When Erasmus started sending his bench into action in bulk, there was almost a novelty factor to it. This was well before the ‘Bomb Squad’ moniker came about, but quickly became, and continues to be, a really effective way of impacting a contest in one fell swoop with multiple fresh bodies.
Robertson seems to be doing the opposite, especially with his tight forwards.
The only front rower or lock not to have played at least 55 minutes in their last three games has been Ethan de Groot in Sydney, and that 40-minute stint was his first game back from injury. Tamaiti Williams played 55 and 67 minutes against the Springboks in the Republic, while Tyrel Lomax has played 58, 73 and 70 minutes in his last three starts.
Hooker Codie Taylor has played 65, 71 and 61 minutes, with the longest of those stints coming either side of an HIA check. Tupou Vaa’i played 69 minutes in Johannesburg and 65 minutes in Sydney, and remarkably, replacement lock Sam Darry went unused in Cape Town.
While asking his tight forwards go deep into games, Robertson has also seen his side struggle to score in the last quarter. They have now also conceded five yellow cards in their last three games. It’s a curious thing to observe in a team so renowned for their clinical late-game finishing.
Schmidt knows his team can’t give up starts to New Zealand, or anyone for that matter, but equally he should take a lot out of the team’s turnaround from Santa Fe to Sydney, where the respective second halves are about as polar as opposites get.
He got tremendous impact from his bench in Sydney at the same time the team’s confidence was growing, so whatever his message was at half-time and early in the second half, it hit the right note.
Does this guarantee anything for Wellington this weekend? No, of course not.
But it will certainly be curious to see which team takes the most confidence into the return Test this weekend, and especially which team finishes it the best.
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