LONG READ Australia must show that Springboks pain will yield longer-term gain

If the biggest lessons come from losses rather than wins, as losing coaches often like to remind us, then school is well and truly in for the Wallabies this week.

The challenge is easy. Prove to Australian rugby fans, even those who continue to be disappointed that this rebuilding team has not reached ridiculously high benchmarks they have set based on decades-old memories, that there can be some good to come from the two heavy defeats by South Africa this last fortnight.

Certainly, the twin losses speak volumes as to where the two teams sit in the grand scheme of international rugby. Two bonus-point wins for the Springboks, 63 points to 19 on aggregate, nine tries to one, with that one try coming in the 76^th minute of the first encounter in Brisbane. Number one in the world, and in red hot form, versus number nine in up-and-down form and on a major rebuild with a new coach.

But Joe Schmidt has always spoken in terms of wanting to see incremental improvements from the Wallabies since he took on the role, and from one Springboks Test to the next, the question as to whether he continues to see that improvement is valid.

An obvious measure is 21-0 at half-time in Brisbane against 11-9 in Perth, and which Schmidt was quick to point to in his post-match interactions.

“It was tough going. I thought we almost got our nose in front at half-time, which would’ve been a lift for the players, I think, because they were a little bit beaten up coming in at half-time,” he said.

“It was very physical again, as it always is against the Springboks, and we’ve got a few guys who are walking wounded.

“I am still proud of the way that the guys fought their way through that second half, and the way that they stayed in the fight in the first half. ‘It could have been’ is easy to say, but it could have been 12-11 at half-time, and that would have been a massive lift for the boys.”

In the professional era, the Wallabies win upwards of 82% of matches when they lead at half-time and lose roughly three in every four when they don’t. Over more than 350 Tests, it’s a significant sample size.

And that half-time marker is, and has long been, an important one for the Wallabies.

In Dave Rennie’s last two seasons in charge, 15 of the 16 losses in that period came after trailing at the break. The one other defeat had the scores level after 40 minutes.

Last year under Eddie Jones, the Wallabies only led at half-time in three games and won two of them. In the seven losses, they trailed at the break five times and were level once. Already under Schmidt in 2024, all three times the Wallabies have led at half-time, they went on to win.

Australian rugby record-keeper and statistician Matt Alvarez points out that historically, in the professional era, the Wallabies win upwards of 82% of matches when they lead at half-time and lose roughly three in every four when they don’t. Over more than 350 Tests, it’s a significant sample size.

That’s not to say that if Noah Lolesio happened to slot that 40^th-minute penalty goal in Perth, Australia would have gone on to win the game; of course not. Correlation and causation, and all that.

But it absolutely highlights why Wallabies coaches aren’t just stating the bleeding obvious when they utter the obligatory “we need to start well” quote in the lead-up to a Test.

Schmidt lamented the loss of three props and the forced move to uncontested scrums, labelling it one of the most bizarre games he’s seen in more than a hundred Tests over his coaching career.

“It’s very hard to keep up with things when they happen that quickly,” he said later.

“Some of it was managed at half-time, because Allan (Ala’alatoa) and Angus Bell came off at half-time, but then you know you’re skinny, you can’t afford to lose another prop.

The move to uncontested scrums certainly depowered the South African scrum, but it created problems elsewhere for the Wallabies.

“And then ‘Slips’ (James Slipper) needed an HIA right at the start of the second half, so then you’re in trouble straight away. Josh Nasser, about the 55-minute mark, he kept cramping. We were hoping he could actually keep playing, but in the end, it just wasn’t going to be possible.

“So, we had two hookers and a tighthead prop (on the field), and a very young tighthead prop.

The move to uncontested scrums certainly depowered the South African scrum, but it created problems elsewhere for the Wallabies.

“It just made our maul defence become a little bit unstructured, guys not necessarily knowing their role as well, because we obviously had a number of changes,” Schmidt explained.

That was clearly evident in both of Malcolm Marx’s two maul tries.

The first came after he was almost certainly technically detached but was allowed to reattach and drive forward for the line. Rob Valetini and Billy Pollard joined from the blindside at funny positions and essentially got shorn off themselves down the side.

Pollard was driven past so quickly that he suddenly found himself having to show that he definitely didn’t swim down the side and latch onto Marx (though he surely did), and that was what caused Marx to lose his footing and grab hold of Vincent Koch’s shorts for dear life. Small mercies for referee Paul Williams staying on the open side.

Prior to Marx’s second, Seru Uru had found himself losing his footing as he bound onto the maul, going straight to ground and conceding his second maul-collapsing penalty in as many minutes. Williams’ decision to issue a yellow card to the Queensland debutant was spot on, even if his description of Uru “deliberately” collapsing the maul felt a touch harsh on review.

From the subsequent lineout and maul, Australia’s back pod of forwards got a clean bind on the South Africans, but Lukhan Salakaia-Loto’s arrival pushed Carlo Tizzano down the open side and the two of them lost connection with the rest of the Wallabies defenders, save for Harry Wilson who had bound himself to Koch.

The three of them splintering off with Koch then gave the rest of the Springboks forwards a five-on-two advantage, which even with the arrival of a third and other returning Wallabies forwards simply wasn’t going to be stopped.

Without the senior props in Ala’alatoa and Slipper, or even the experienced Bell on the field, the Wallabies maul defence was ambitiously held together with not much more than hope and desperation. The Springboks, by now deprived of a scrum contest for more than 20 minutes, were never going to let such an opportunity for statement domination slip.

Uru’s card speaks to another ongoing issue, and though the number of Wallabies the penalties conceded in Perth was a nearly a third better than Brisbane, they have still kept their one-card-per-game record intact for 2024. Indeed, the Sydney Morning Herald reported last week that the Wallabies had to that point coughed up 43 cards in 47 Tests since 2020.

So there remain plenty of lessons for the Wallabies to learn. But still Schmidt refuses to show annoyance at his team’s failings. He readily admits to frustrations when the ball bounces the wrong way, but his pragmatic approach that Australian rugby fans have latched onto after 12 months of whatever 2023 was continues to shine through.

“I was proud that we didn’t die wondering,” he said. “We chanced our arm a few times, and it was tough going with the carry and to be able to carry in these conditions; (the Springboks) actually turned a fair bit of ball over as well. And we scrambled back and survived a couple of early threats as well. I was proud of the efforts made.”

I’ve known Felipe Contepomi for a long time. I’d have a lot of respect for his rugby intellect and he’s a top man. Being friends certainly stops at kick-off though.

Joe Schmidt

Next up comes a tour of Argentina, and for all the promises of wonderful Malbec wine and a thickness of steak that brings a tear to a hungry prop’s eye, the Wallabies face the prospect of desperately needing to beat a team who will be equally desperate to show that their 38-30 win over New Zealand in Wellington was not a one-off after a 42-10 trouncing in their second meeting with the All Blacks.

“It doesn’t get any easier going to Argentina next,” Schmidt said. “They’ll be disappointed with their first half (in Auckland), but they demonstrated just how tough to beat they’ll be when they toppled the All Blacks (in Wellington) and didn’t even give them a bonus point.

“I’ve known Felipe Contepomi for a long time. I’d have a lot of respect for his rugby intellect and he’s a top man. Being friends certainly stops at kick-off though. They won’t be taking it easy on us and we’ll be trying to make things difficult for them.”

Incremental improvements. Learning the lessons of losses. And hopefully, showing an Australian rugby public that these two weeks of Springboks pain will be for the greater good.