It’s just two weeks now until the All Blacks play their first test of 2024 and they have pulled off the impossible feat of splitting opinion as to whether they are going to be rejuvenated and sensational or inexperienced and lacking direction.
The view outside of New Zealand, especially in England who will open the test programme for the year in Dunedin, seems to be that they will encounter an unusually vulnerable All Blacks team.
And there is justification for believing that, as the All Blacks have undergone the largest cleanout of coaching and management personnel in the last 20 years.
New head coach Scott Robertson has kept only forwards coach Jason Ryan and conditioning coach Nic Gill from the previous regime and so there is little institutional knowledge inherent in the new team.
He finds himself head of a coaching group that lacks experience in the international arena and one that is also unprecedently large having found consultancy roles for David Hill as a kicking coach, Corey Flynn as a throwing coach and Tamati Ellison as a contact skills coach.
Robertson is going to have to spread himself particularly thin to be a guiding voice and mentor just to his coaching and management group – never mind the 32 players that will be in camp to play England.
There will also be a new captain, as Sam Cane, who led the team for the last four years has stood down, and Robertson will likely turn to his former Crusaders’ skipper Scott Barrett to take over.
There’s every reason to believe that Barrett will in time become a strong and influential captain, but he’ll unquestionably be a touch overwhelmed and nervous as he finds his way into the job.
He also hasn’t played since early May due to injury so he’ll be short of match fitness at a time when he’s going to be under pressure to go the full 80 minutes.
Barrett isn’t the only senior, experienced All Black short of rugby – as his brother Beauden has only managed a 40-minute hit out for his Taranaki club Coastal since he returned from Japan in early May, while Ardie Savea hasn’t played at all since he came back to New Zealand.
There is a lack of experience at lock, and no recognised lineout controller now that Sam Whitelock. There is no Aaron Smith or Richie Mo’unga so the All Blacks will be fielding a new combination at scrum-half and fly-half.
There is a lack of experience at lock, and no recognised lineout controller now that Sam Whitelock. There is no Aaron Smith or Richie Mo’unga so the All Blacks will be fielding a new combination at scrum-half and fly-half and while the lead contender to wear the No 10 jersey, Damian McKenzie, has been in outstanding form for the Chiefs, he’s predominantly played test rugby at fullback and hasn’t shown an ability yet to manage a gameplan and be the team’s tactical general.
Former England fly-half Freddie Burns, who played for the Highlanders in 2023, also theorised that the demise of the Crusaders may have weakened the All Blacks, telling RugbyPass TV: “New Zealand rugby is going through a bit of a transition at the minute. The Crusaders aren’t quite that same force, so I think England have got a realistic chance to go down there and upset a few people, and go away with at least a series draw, if not a series win.
“It’s more the changing of the guard. It’s that transition period. Mo’unga’s gone abroad, they’ve lost that combination and the Crusaders for so long were stacked with All Blacks, similar to Leinster with Ireland.
“That’s no longer there anymore, so I don’t think New Zealand are going to be the same force.”
The evidence is there to say that this upcoming series does appear to be a golden opportunity for England to win in New Zealand for the first time since 2003.
But if the New Zealand glass is half empty, then it is also half full and while Robertson faces a daunting task, his career record to date promotes confidence and optimism that he can rebuild the All Blacks into a dominant force.
The All Blacks have appeared vulnerable before, but in the last 20 years they have only lost four July tests – to France in 2009, the British & Irish Lions in 2017, and Ireland twice in 2022, and drawn once – against the Lions in 2017.
There are so many loose forwards vying for selection it’s almost ridiculous and Robertson will have noted that they all fronted when Super Rugby reached the crunchy end.
To focus exclusively on the potential negatives – the lack of experience and leadership, the injury toll, the enormity of the task of trying to bring so many people together in a relatively short space of time – is to miss the fact that Super Rugby has witnessed a newfound intensity and physicality in 2024 that has set New Zealand’s players up to make a quick transition to international rugby.
There is a collection of mobile yet high-quality scrummaging props across the country. Xavier Numia, Ethan de Groot, Tyrel Lomax, Ofa Tuungafasi, Fletcher Newell and Tamaiti Williams are the all-court props the All Blacks need to have a solid set-piece, a presence at the breakdown, and most importantly men on their feet to carry the ball and make tackles.
Everyone has worried about lock, but Patrick Tuipulotu and Tupou Vai’i have played 60 tests between them and have been in career-best form.
There are so many loose forwards vying for selection it’s almost ridiculous and Robertson will have noted that they all fronted when Super Rugby reached the crunchy end.
No one went missing and when the possible loose trio combinations start being considered – Samipeni Finau, Savea and Hoskins Sotutu – it’s easy to imagine how explosive and multi-skilled the All Blacks’ gameplan might be.
As for McKenzie, he’s shown himself to not only be fearless in his physical approach, he’s also been measured and astute this season – using his improved kicking as much as he has his electric running game to pull, bend and break defences.
And then there has been the brilliance and consistency of Jordie Barrett – the youngest of the three brothers offering an incredible array of skills around a robust and destructive physical approach.
As for the quality the All Blacks have in their back three, that’s off the charts with Mark Telea and Caleb Clarke in scintillating form for the Blues, Emoni Narawa back to his best with the Chiefs and Sevu Reece having worked genuine miracles with the Crusaders.
Robertson is no one’s fool, and as forwards coach Ryan revealed on the All Blacks podcast, one of the key areas of focus ahead of the team being picked, has been the leadership and ways in which it can be improved.
Losing the experience of Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Cane, Shannon Frizell, Smith and Mo’unga has left the All Blacks short of natural leaders and men who have seen it all in test rugby.
Losing the experience of Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Cane, Shannon Frizell, Smith and Mo’unga has left the All Blacks short of natural leaders and men who have seen it all in test rugby.
But Robertson has been working to fix that issue, with senior players and coaches having been regularly meeting to work out how they will operate together both on and off the field to ensure there is strong decision-making and a deep understanding of how the team wants to play.
“We want to have a team that is really flexible in their thinking about how they want to play and constantly want to evolve our game,” Ryan said.
“I think one of the many great things that Razor has done and has done with the same model in the leadership group, is he’s gone… ‘what do we protect and what do we evolve?’.
“And that is just brilliant, it is a chance for the leaders to go ‘okay, well this something that’s been special, challenge it by the same token, and this is something we think we can do a lot better.”
England may have their best chance to win in 21 years, but they may also be walking into an ambush – about to be hit by a young, gifted, supremely physical and athletic All Blacks team coached by a man who has made every post a winner so far in his career and has this uncanny knack of getting the best out of people.
43 -9 and the Poms fail to score a try.
Lets stay humble NZ, the rugby can do the talking, rather than blow all the power out our mouths before kick off.
All black, all day, everyday. 🖤
When Rassie added the Welsh game I thought he was nuts. But it was bloody clever, as he has had a practice match and the guys together for a full month prior to Ireland landing. Maybe Razor missed a trick here, and possibly they should have finished SR final a week earlier, so he could have more time and possibly played a game against say Samoa. Rassie just seems to plan better and ahead of things. It would have allowed the injured guys- Barrett etc- to get some game-time.
Thought there was actually another game they didn’t get over the line in time. Not sure it was now though, I think it was a second Fiji game.
Watched a fair amount of Super Rugger this year. To me the NZ sides have added a direct physical edge to their forward play which was a bit absent in the Foster era, while retaining athletic and skilled backline play. I have the feeling the north think the ABs are not the same at forward and are there for the taking. Vern Cotter got the Blues physical, tight and direct. And this spilled over to the Chiefs. And the Saders have always had this. I think the English are walking into a massive trap, and I feel are going to be shown up big time.
From some the media work Razors coaching team has been doing it sounded like they in contact more with the franchises, so could well be a direct result of that?
This the best All Black Team since 2015.
After all the Bullshit of the last 3 years, they are finally in a good place mentally and with some outstanding “New All Blacks” who want to perform.
Ethan Blackadder will cover lock. He is an excellent lineout forward.
Once we slaughter the Poms 2 nil then South Africa at home 2 nil, we will move on to the Northern Tour, England, Ireland and France. They will be “shivering by then”
The AB’s are back!
Once again Scott Robertson will create another Rugby dynasty.
How? They haven't even played yet? I suppose technically they're unbeaten then?
“The Haka ” Jesus Tom it’s a Test Match not a Kapa Haka contest. We have done the Haka for 130 years.
I love The Haka, long may it continue… and I don't want fans singing over it either.
In my experiences Rugby Coaches don’t change their “coaching style” when they have a winning formula. Robertson has that formula. He has a nucleus of players and he personally knows “their ability” They have never been more excited to play a test in their careers.
They will start Fast, Accurate and Intense.
They will give 120% on the 6th of July at Forsyth Barr. Do you really think that England will cope with that intensity. Alex Mitchell and Marcus Smith stand between the All Blacks and a cricket score.
43 -9 Go the AB’s
I sense a drawn series. Fancy England to catch them cold in the first test and the ABs to recover and get the win at Eden Park. I think the weather might decide how much running rugby there is.
First test is under cover.
Question: The ABs seem to start slowly in matches. Do you think the Haka burns that pre-match adrenaline while pumping up the opposition? Could potentially help teams facing the ABs get off to a faster start?
yes all 1 minute of it
You need to understand how Haka is woven into the fabric of the abs makeup. The challenge historically was more of a tokenistic lip service of a geographical indication of origin. Your comment back then could've had a hint of merit. But it is and rightfully about the “why” they perform it, just sit back admire the intent and feel proud, that is of course if your"kiwi”
Arithmetic shows the ABs have played 150 tests v the Home Unions who’ve only won 16 of these tests combined. So, nah.
No. The All Blacks winning or losing is not impacted by the haka.
Would be a win win if they canned it and we didn’t have to hear the English trying to drown it out with their terrible signing.
There’s been some debate that the haka gives the ABs an “unfair advantage”. With one commentator once questioning why the ABs get a five minute aerobic warm-up before kick-off while the opposing team watches.
Some teams might even get pumped up themselves facing the haka. taking in the challenge. So I guess it depends on the day and the game.
No one in England is expecting us to go down to NZ and come away with any easy wins. All we're saying is due to England starting to click and the ABs having to rebuild this is the first time in a long time where we've got a chance. Being optimistic i’d like to think we’ll win the first by 2 points in a brutal battle and lose one the second by 13 as we struggle to match the same intensity and the ABs raise their game. The bookies will still be making England underdogs and rightly so, we're going to have to play exceptional rugby to win either game but are we capable of winning a match? I think so.
Tend to agree - this is a great opportunity for England to take a prized scalp in the first test. I just hope that red cards don’t spoil the contest lime the sad and controversial RWC final 2023
What makes you think the ABs are having to rebuild?
All the b luster coming from the media up north?
Honestly, congrats to that England squad. I only watched the first fifteen minutes before I went to sleep, but from what I could see Japan were impressive with the 90s coaches wet dream of chucking the ball around until something sticks (which did work, and I was impressed), but were just dominated up front physically by a much larger English team.
However, that will not be happening against the All Blacks. If anything, I expect the All Blacks to be soul-crushingly tough and Springbok-esque when it comes to set piece and the contact area. There is a reason that Razor selected two 140kg + props, one of which played in a RWC final. It will be interesting to see the changes that Borthwick and his staff make to their coaching setup, as they knew they were bigger and more experienced than that Japanese team, but now its time to play the big dogs, and I will be interested to see if they continue with dominate up front, let the backs work a little magic or if it will be a more comprehensive and tactical setup, with an elevated kicking game and explosive wingers.
I can’t see Englands tactics changing. Borthwick likes continuity. But I do fear for Englands tight 5 against NZ. The fact that Marler and Cole are most pundits favourites to start (though I don’t think they both will) shows how few options England have developed at prop over the last 10 or so years. Add in the lightweight second row of Itoje and Coles (I don’t believe the Wikipedia stats which have them not far off the weight of Barret/Tuipulotu) and I can see NZ overpowering England. Earl is a lightweight 8 too. Hope I’m proved wrong.
I can’t see Tosi making the bench yet but if he and Williams did Whoah…
No need for your fanciful fairy tale script Gregor
The only time you call an All Blacks team “vulnerable” is AFTER you have beaten them. Bok fans know this well being our fiercest rivals for 100yrs
Nah, entirely fair to call them vulnerable at this point in time.
New coach, complete overall in players and backroom staff, potentially a 9/10 axis that have never played internationally together. They haven’t beaten England in more than half a decade and their last hit out was a meek surrender in a world cup final. They’re on the rack for the first test at least.
No one in England thinks the ABs are vulnerable. We just know they're unlikely to be at peak performance. England are still underdogs, but we'll be competitive and if things go our way, who knows! We've got an outside chance.
All Blacks are always vulnerable in First Test at home. It will take the heat off the NZRFU, who have survived after an independent review found them “Unfit For Purpose” on the 31st August 2023.
Scott Robertson is the future of New Zealand Rugby.
Even with 5 new All Blacks, we still lack depth in our “Player Ranks”
A “Specialist Full Back, in the All Blacks seems to be a thing of the past. Three Locks is a mystery, with Scott Barrett and Tupolutu recently injured.
Well, I wonder if this will be the last England Tour for a while. Players have realised that the governance of the game or lack of it is destroying Rugby in New Zealand.
“NZRFU” you are on borrowed time for your incompetence and corruption.
The Player’s Association will eventually run New Zealand Professional Rugby. They will do a far better job than the NZRFU. They are waiting for the right time to make their move.
They put the players first, rather than bleeding the game for their own greedy reasons like the NZRFU have done for years.
Now back to England v All Blacks. The All Blacks may get a fright at Dunedin. Hopefully in the first 15 minutes, so we have 65 minutes to come back and “Crush” the Poms, with an All Blacks signature dazzling display of running rugby.
All Blacks 43 England 9 and fail to score a try.
Cripes you’re showing yourself as one of those journos with this hot takes!
Everything hunky-dory in the end then. Happy ending.
As much as England are confident and are adding layers to their game the AB’s should eat them for lunch. I expect their rush defence will make a few mistakes leading to soft tries as the AB’s shift the ball to an explosive back 3. I can also see the NZ front row winning the battle in the scrum and their loose forwards exposing the English at ruck time. I reckon NZ to win each game by 10
The way you eat an elephant is bit by bit. And the specialized coaching regime razor has set up is akin to my example.
Shows you what the English know about sport.
Isn’t just fantastic that the best rugby team, or brand, on the planet has three brothers playing together? One a bull, the other a dancer, and last a .. boxer? Looks like a boxer bless him.
Have they? I would suggest then it is not a case of fixing things, that is not what Razor does. Razor will evolve the relationship between player and coach into a more symbiotic relationship. This wont be a coach that shouts down at his players theyre not doing good enough. I can imagine one of the first key areas he will be implementing is the respective leadership for each coaching group. Tight five, Loosies, Halves, Centers, and Back Three, will each have their own leadership team and an agile approach to the playing group relaying what they believe is happening on the training paddock, and in games. It will be a very big step to get everyone involved, able, and thinking about contributing to that process, but I believe a very beneficial one if successful.
Or, by a group hurting from not getting over the line and proving to everyone they are the best in the world, full of experience and cohesion, grit and motivation. You only need to look at someone like Patrick Tuipulotu to see someone with a fire under his belly from missing out on the last RWC due to injury, and having lost to this opposition in the previous one.
It will be very interesting to see how this ‘Razor’ plays it. Does he stick with the traditional and protect the time honored All Black values of commitment, or does he evolve and pick the best players to win the Rugby Championship - and by association this test series - like Akira Ioane?
Akira heading off has probably saved Robertson another squirmy non selection like Sotutu
I think Gregor Paul is a bit rattled by the prospect of the AB’s facing this English team.
Maybe he should save his ink for the coming fight with the English media dogs.
Probably one of the most attacking teams England have sent overseas for many years and recently, they’ve been doing the unthinkable and actually scoring tries!
There does seem to be balance to the team, decent strength in depth in a number of key positions and in Borthwick, a genuine tactical commitment to run the ball.
On the downside - and similar to the ABs in a lot of respects, it’s a pretty inexperienced squad and England have lost of lot of caps through recent retirements. Props continue to be thin on the ground and the rush defense is something you’d expect the ABs to workaround without too much worry.
All in all, looks set to be a pretty evenly balanced series. The diehards will be pointing to the history books, but England have turned a corner since the WC and could be a handful.
I’m playing it safe and calling the series tied at one apiece.
It’s interesting how quickly things can change. Halfway through the 6 Nations, England were being described as the worst (attacking) side “ever” by the various peanut galleries.
Anyway, England should be feeling buoyed - but should remain vigilant and respectful of what the ABs can do to any team that wonders into their part of the woods. Good opportunity for a developing English team. I just hope their media can appropriately deal with any losses that might come their way.
Most teams, faced with just a few of the many changes and challenges listed in this article, would struggle to do well straight out of the gates in a new season.
The All Blacks are not like most teams.
Honestly, as an England fan I don’t see the changes to NZ’s playing personnel as a problem for NZ. Sure, England have had a 6N to bed in but England are missing 7 of the players that started the World Cup semi final against SA and a further 6 more from the bench that day. This England side is very inexperienced too. I can’t be bothered to tally up the caps of the likely starting 15s and 23s but I suspect NZ will have more.
What will be interesting is how the coaching turnover affects NZ. But there’s no reason to think Robertson will be anything but a success. And Foster wasn’t the most popular.
This won’t be an easy tour for England by any stretch.
My main concern is the lack of build-up for the ABs. A good challenge right out of the gates will set a tone that they will either need to re-establish (if they are too rusty) or could be hard for other teams to live with (if they hit their straps from day 1).
I think the short lead in could be a good thing. Most of the team will have played at least a semi final, into Razor’s environment for a week and it's all still very new fresh and exciting. This team will be buzzing mentally and lack of mental application is where AB teams have fallen down at times. While many may be a bit short on test experience, there will be some phenomenal players and if it all clicks they will blow England away.