The sense of expectation is almost palpable. The whole of the rugby community in Australia has drawn a collective breath and is waiting for the opportunity to exhale. ‘Bated breath’ would be an understatement. The suspense surrounding the identity of Joe Schmidt’s replacement as Wallaby head coach is becoming unbearable.
Over the weekend, Joe Schmidt protegé Noah Lolesio cited the ongoing vacancy as one reason why he was leaving home shores for Japan: “Joe not being here after The Rugby Championship definitely made it tougher for me to stay, to be honest. Just the unknown of who the next coach will be. And me potentially, if I do stay, then going through the whole cycle again.”
It is time for Rugby Australia to make up its mind up, to avoid a further withering round of uncertainty. One key piece in the puzzle will be maintaining continuity, and a sense of integrity with the game at Super Rugby level. As new High Performance Director Peter Horne commented in November 2024:
“How do we turn green shoots into gold?”
“Rugby Australia was siloed – the Wallabies was the flagship so it had its own staff and that team operated separately from our Wallaroos and Sevens and Super Rugby teams. We needed to connect them if we were going to reflect, learn and grow as one team.
“The shared mission is to create a sustainable system that develops our players and coaches to be world class. Centralisation? Alignment? Yadda Yadda Yadda. The reality is about people connecting as a team.”
Kiss and his team are building something significant at Ballymore, and the progress they have made would come to a grinding halt. Work would have to start all over again from scratch.
If the system is to be sustainable, it cannot afford traumatic upheavals – the changes need to be progressive and harmonious. When you link those comments to the current situation of the Queensland Reds, it does little to promote the claims of Les Kiss to the top job; at least, if he wants to move into the Wallaby White House with all his current Queensland coaching staff – Brad Davis, John Fisher and Zane Hilton – en bloc.
While breakdown and defence specialist ‘Lord’ Laurie Fisher and scrum guru Mike Cron have indicated they will retire at the same time Schmidt departs in November, it would leave Forwards coach Geoff Parling and Skills mentor Eoin Toolan sitting high-and-dry.
It would also rip a huge hole in Queensland’s development at a time the Reds can least afford it. Kiss and his team are building something significant at Ballymore, and the progress they have made would come to a grinding halt. Work would have to start all over again from scratch.
Praise has been flowing freely since Les Kiss arrived from Irish before the start of the 2024 Super Rugby season, and rightly so. Rob Simmons, who played for him at the Madejski Stadium, praised his ability to create professionalism within a playing group: “Kissy’ will be good for development. He will get everyone to start thinking of the game at a higher level, how to attack and look at other team’s strengths and weaknesses.”
More recently, ex-Queensland legend James O’Connor ruminated on the development of the Reds’ franchise over his six-year second coming with the club:
“Working with [ex-Queensland backs coach] Jim McKay started to burn a fire about coaching.
“Les and the other coaches are easily the most cohesive group I have ever worked with and I’m thankful I got to be part of it last year. Each of the coaches is synced up in every part of the game.”
James O’Connor
“I am very grateful that ‘Thorny’ gave me a second chance at the Reds. My second life in the maroon jersey has meant a lot more to me, and that 2021 Super Rugby AU season is probably my favourite in any sort of rugby.
“In our group that year, a lot went from boys to men when we won the Super Rugby AU competition.”
“Les and the other coaches are easily the most cohesive group I have ever worked with and I’m thankful I got to be part of it last year. Each of the coaches is synced up in every part of the game.”
In that precis, the progress from the days of Jim McKay and Brad Thorn to Les Kiss and his current coaching cohorts sounds relatively harmonious. But the truth is that Kiss is still building the foundations in Queensland and the work is far from complete. Let’s play statistical devil’s advocate for a minute, with the Reds key losses:
The Reds are yet to beat a top four opponent in either season, bar the Western Force in 2025, twice by the same scoreline [28-24]. They have not yet established that they can beat the top sides from New Zealand, and they have not established that they are top dog in Aussie, ahead of the perennial overachievers from Canberra. That is what makes the round nine game between the Reds and Brumbies one to savour. The double-header this coming Saturday at the Suncorp, and on May 17th at GIO stadium, will tell us just how far the Reds have really progressed after receiving the ‘Queensland Kiss’.
The law of natural selection in sport is utterly lucid. As a player or coach, you need to prove you have achieved results at one level before you advance to a higher tier. And right now, Les Kiss and his coaching staff do not have the pelts on their ponies. As a Director of Rugby with Neil Doak as his senior coach, Kiss achieved Pro 12 semi-finals with Ulster [2014-2017], but the province was knocked out of the Champions Cup at the pool stages. As a head coach with London Irish [2018-2023], finishes improved from 10th in the English Premiership in 2019-20 to 5th in 2022-23, and the club progressed to the round of 16 in his, and its last season. But there was no silverware.
Les Kiss has shown the ability to improve himself and the teams he manages, but as a head coach he still has to prove he can win competitions. It would therefore, be a huge gamble for Rugby Australia to go ‘all-in’ on Queensland in one hand of poker, importing the entire coaching team from Ballymore to the Wallabies.
More specific coaching question-marks have emerged over recent weeks. In last weekend’s game against the Chiefs, the Reds maintained their record of refusing every penalty goal opportunity in 2025 in favour of kicking for the corner, and going for a short-range lineout drive instead. It left experienced commentators on Sky Sport’s The Breakdown panel dazed and confused:
“The Reds – I just can’t get over the stat: 30 odd points they’ve turned down? They haven’t taken a shot at goal all year!” [Mils Muliaina]
“I don’t understand it when I think about rugby IQ and changing momentums, and shifting scoreboard pressure and earning the points.” [Jeff Wilson]
Queensland came out in the red on their policy, scoring a good driving lineout try in the 19th minute, only to be rebuffed by a replica of the same defensive pattern twice in the second period:
The technique is the same in both clips. The Chiefs’ fringe defenders ‘peel the orange’ on both sides of the drive, dragging blockers away until the ball-carrier [Matt Faessler in the first instance, Tate McDermott in the second] is exposed to a man coming late up the middle. Prop George Dyer duly wins the first turnover, number 8 Luke Jacobson rips the ball away in the second.
One of the riders to the Reds’ policy is that it does not expose their goal-kickers to any pressure situations off the tee. These are precisely the scenarios they would be asked to handle in Test matches, but the uncertainty surrounding the best future option at the position, for both club and country still looms. James O’Connor again:
“What I hope I did was share some knowledge and wisdom with Harry [McLaughlin-Phillips], Tom [Lynagh] and Lawson [Creighton] as number 10’s. Things like reading situations, how to get more looks, when to take on the line, the territory game and so on. Probably the highlight of my year was seeing the growth of the two younger guys, Tom and Harry.”
Creighton may have moved on to New South Wales, but who will make the step up quickest at a higher level – Lynagh or McLaughlin-Phillips? Harry came out well in credit on a miserable evening against the Chiefs, and his trump card compared to Lynagh is his more robust defensive work:
McLaughlin-Phillips has the nuggety physique to be an on-ball threat, but even more importantly he has the compact frame to stop power runners like Quinn Tupaea one-on-one:
All three runs by one of the comeback kings of Kiwi rugby finish in turnovers – a forward pass in the first clip, and two handling errors in the second and third. It looked very much like the young Reds’ #10 was relishing the physical contest. In contrast, Tom Lynagh tended to be tucked away from the front line of D when he came on in the 58th minute:
No Harry in the 10 channel? Chiefs’ full-back Shaun Stevenson gets the green light to bust straight through on first phase, with Tom cruising across from his starting spot on the blind-side wing into acting full-back on the following play.
On attack, McLaughlin-Phillips showed lethal intent as a second touch runner, and his highlight moment arrived in the 48th minute:
The mystery surrounding the identity of the new Wallabies head coach and/or Director of Rugby deepens by the week. Whatever the final solution, the road least likely is the wholesale migration of the Reds coaching staff to equivalent roles with the Wallabies.
While there is still unfinished business in Queensland, the coaching staff in Ballymore should stay put. A complete overhaul of the group Joe Schmidt put in place would be an expensive exercise, and that would hardly promote the continuity Peter Horne said he wanted, at either club or international level. Changes ought to be kept to a minimum, and Rugby Australia would be wise to hold its big blue chips back for another day.
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can see the Queensland reds losing at least another four games. they're not that flash. dont quite see what the hype is all about.
They don’t look ready to win a title yet RS, the game at the weekend showed that.
NSW were doing a good early shunt in the lineout maul in the weekend too, but Chiefs shut that down next entry by holding the lifted a tad longer. Good abrasive effort by NSW though, what weve seen at home from them all year right from the Landers game.
Piece on it forthcoming JW!
Thanks Nick.
Your have it right with Harry McLaughlin-Phillips.
He is one of 3 #10s showing some form. The others are Lynagh and Donnalson.
It’s not unusual to have the best players in a particular position from the same side.
(Queensland also have two of the best halfbacks on form too)
As Rennie found when he (or his coaching team) didn't know how use the five eighth after Cooper was unavailable, simple pass the parcel five eighths don’t work v good opposition.
Harry McLaughlin-Phillips, Lynagh and Donnalson may not be world beaters, but they can create something some of the time.
Re Kiss, he HAS to be the main Wallaby coach, and yes, it’s totally possible for him to have a Reds role as well. Right now too, it is essential for Schmidt to continue a role after Kiss takes over.
Yes HMP and Lynagh are doing well in Qld, though I’d like to see Harry getting more starts. Arguably they have a third as Lawson Creighton has come on in NSW.
I am not so sure about Les Kiss, at least in the way they are touting him now. Certainly not with all his Qld staffers moving with him, and a job share with him remaining head of ops in Qld would be difficult.
It would be wrong for RA to invest in him too heavily right now. He needs to win something with the Reds.
I was frustrated by how long it took the Reds to cotton on to the Chiefs taking Reds players out beyond the ruck. Players have to pick up on this stuff in game and alert the referee to it. Can’t wait for Les to tell you about it at half time and then make the ref aware of it.
Yes they have to milk it and it is very much a NZ thing. They will take as many defenders out as far away from the ruck epicentre as they can get away with!
Nick, I have been somewhat concerned that our SR sides are not fit enough. It has been obvious to me that we are falling away in the last qtr. Reds v Chiefs was a case in point.
It’s become a premium period in the game what with 7-1 benches Ardy!
Geoff Parling in his recent interview with me thought it was the area in which the Aussie sides had improved the most, and I’d guess knowing Geoff that is based on solid facts.
So maybe the Reds-Chiefs final Q was not typical? The Aussie sides are 7-0 in games against non-Aussie opponents finishing in less than a one score victory, which implies for the most part they are hanging tough…
Hey Nick, thanks for another well put together article and interesting read. I would love to see Les Kiss stay at the Reds as it does feel like they are building towards something special with a great culture and team cohesion, but not quite this season unfortunately. Would be great if that reasoning was proved wrong and they take out title. It does feel to me, that Larkham and McKellar probably know more than us about the future Wallabies Coach and having now distanced themselves from the discussions, leaves Les as the frontrunner for the gig. RA do need to make a decision soon though before more of Noah’s mates join him overseas. On a more sobering note, RA’s problems seem minor to issue now being faced at home by the WRU. Would love to read your opinion on that one at some stage.
I am beginning to feel that is what should happen Jon.
Although I do feel Les K is the outstanding Aussie candidate for the job, it would be hard for him to keep a foot in both camps at once, and it would wreck the Reds if he took his team with him to the WB.
So I’d be more inclined to appoint a top tracksuit coach in anticipation of Joe S. becoming involved again before 2027. I can’t see Les doing so much of the tracksuit work now, so Aussie needs a bloke who can coach attack and D to a high standard with the Lord leaving in November.
Interesting times Nick, I agree that the Reds really need to be winning more games against tougher competition for the hype around the red-surgence to be taken seriously. Stubbornly not taking the penalties against the chiefs last weekend, a hint of arrogance perhaps? It reminded me of their game plan vs the Saders a couple of weeks earlier - which after 25mins clearly wasn’t working.
Your point about HMP is a good one, and I feel that all Aussie backup 10s have been playing better than the starting 10s this season. Wish we saw more of Edmed for the Tahs.
Hi Jim.
I’d def like to see more of HMP, for mine he’s got teh highest ceiling of any 10 in Aussie.
I always remember Graham Henry telling me, ‘however much you love the gameplan, if the weather changes, you have to be prepared to abandon it.’ I reckon that applied to the Reds last weekend too.
It was like that at Irish too. They were hell-bent on playing their game-plan, come what may!
I’ve said all along we need to keep the momentum going at SR level and look outside for the Wallaby coach. It doesn’t look like that’s the way we’re going, though, with the whispers this week that Kiss has the job.
We shall see.
I reckon they’ll paint themselves into a corner if Les is appointed as head coach DM. He can’t take his staff with him and from what I understand, he doesn’t do a lot of the on-field coaching himself anymore.
So who would actually be coaching the WBs, esp with the Lord and poss Mike Cron leaving? It only leaves Geoff Parling and Eoin Toolan!
It might work with him as a p/t DoR and a f/t senior coach alongside.
I agree Derek, but which coach is always the question. We have some unique player issues here that I could argue only Joe Schmidt has overcome.
One of the issues Michael Cheika had to contend with post the 2015 World Cup was he was having players report for Wallaby duty coming from super rugby sides that weren’t exactly well coached. Cheika also had to deal with players arriving in camp who were losing more than winning. I'm confident Joe Schmidt won’t have those problems to deal with in the build up to the Lions series and the Rugby Championship.
I have come around to the idea of keeping the current super rugby coaches remaining in situ, hopefully producing well coached and winning teams with a top international coach coming in to take the Wallabies job post the Rugby Championship.
Yes. If you’re building something at SRP level, then keep the ppl in place to build it.
If push comes to shove and it becomes ‘either/or’, it would be better if Les stayed at the Reds and looks to finish what he has started there. Then as you say bring Lancaster or similar after TRC.
Or in other words he’s still green and needs to stay where he is?!
Looks like AAP see it differently though…
I think it might work with Les as a kind of caretaker DOR [but without his Qld coaching team around him] and SL doind the tracksuit stuff, if they can strike a working relationship.
Thanks Nick. Who would be your pick for Wallaby coach?
I agree i’d like to see Kiss get some more success before being promoted. Maybe that’s why they are looking at him coaching the reds in 26 too? At least we’ll get a decision soon!!
Who would you bring to qld if Kiss does get promoted? Latham?
Kiss/Lancaster IF they can work together, Lancaster with Schmidt returning when ready if not!
Moderated again John. Hope you learn something from it when you cannot keep a civil tongue in your head😁
And the idea of getting all the SRP head coaches involved in WB coaching is beyond stupid. Read Dan McKellar’s recent comments on that.
How do you know he’s been moderated Nick, all seeing eye?
A great article, thanks Nick.
I just wanted to point out one thing with: “The Reds are yet to beat a top four opponent in either season, bar the Western Force in 2025, twice”.
The Reds beat the Chiefs last year the first time they met (24-19). Although they met later in the quarters and the Chiefs pumped them, this first game still counts! It was such a cracking game and it really announced the Reds as the (almost) real deal last year.
What I've found most pleasing this year is that they're winning the games they're “meant” to win - the 2 x Force games, the Tahs game and the Moana game. Last year they would've fluffed at least 2 of those.
Hopefully Les Kiss can take them all the way to a final this year. Albeit I suspect if they get there, it'll be somewhere in NZ, and a bridge too far for them to come back with any silverware. 🏆
Fair enough - my bad!
The Reds have the depth - esp in the front five - to achieve something concrete this season, no doubt about it.
I am a little concerned about the pen goal v. 5m lineout ‘rule’ [it’s something Les did with Irish] as I feel it’s too inflexible. But it’s clear they need to keep the SRP coaches in SRP, except for Les, who may be given a double role, with another coach doing the bulk of the on-field coaching work.