There is a whiff of desperation coming off the All Blacks as they ready themselves for their last five Tests of the year.
Their squad to face Japan, England, Ireland, France and Italy contains no new caps but has found room for the soon-to-depart veterans Sam Cane and TJ Perenera.
Head coach Scott Robertson has picked, essentially, the same 36-man group that he’s used all season – with the one exception of reintroducing half-back Cam Roigard, who has recovered from a knee injury.
Robertson, though, has ejected 21-year-old Noah Hotham to accommodate Roigard when there was a strong argument that he should have ousted Perenara, who has signed a three-year deal to play in Japan.
In essence, it’s the decision to retain Perenara, who has played 88 Tests compared with Hotham’s one, which has been used as a lightning rod to say Robertson is feeling the pressure to win.
Favouring a 32-year-old who is leaving New Zealand indicates just how much Robertson has come to value experience and just how much he believes he needs it if the All Blacks are going to be successful on their five-Test tour.
He explained as much when he was asked to justify why he has continued to pick two older players who have already decided to head overseas at the end of the year – Cane is also returning to Japan.
How does it look? How do we get the best out of them, but how do they get the best out of the next young All Blacks so they can see them come through?
“It was a deep conversation,” said Robertson. “It’s always a balance between having experience, guys who are Test-fit, balance of leadership and what it takes to win up north.
“They’ve got a lot of those qualities. They’re in a Test team playing good footy still. That was part of it. They can build, they can be a big part of helping the next players come through and building for the future.
“On the balance of it, that’s why they’re coming. I had a good conversation with him [Cane] and TJ about their roles on tour.
“How does it look? How do we get the best out of them, but how do they get the best out of the next young All Blacks so they can see them come through?
“Spend a bit of time with them and show them what Test football and touring is all about. Sam’s got a couple of roles on the field, and being a good mentor off it.”
It’s hard to knock the logic or arguments made, but the decision to err heavily on the side of caution in assembling the squad illustrates just how focused Robertson is on winning and his level of nervousness about being able to do so.
This is in stark contrast to most of his predecessors, who have used the end-of-season tour to phase out a few long-servers by leaving them at home.
Typically, certainly in the Graham Henry and Steve Hansen eras at least, the All Blacks would head to Europe full of optimism about their chances to win over there.
The 2024 All Blacks contain no new faces and no apprentices, and they are travelling to the Northern Hemisphere with not a hint of the coaches having even half an eye on 2025.
In the first two decades of the millennium the All Blacks had so much confidence about beating the likes of Ireland, England and France that they would usually inject a few surprise choices into the tour party.
The November sojourn north was always seen as a soft entry point to introduce new caps. Kieran Read won his first caps on the 2008 end-of-year tour having been overlooked for the Tri-Nations.
In 2009, Ben Smith came into the squad as an unheralded fullback-cum-wing. In 2013 Ardie Savea travelled to Japan, UK, France and Ireland as an apprentice, something Jordie Barrett did in 2016 – on the same tour that his brother Scott was also called up as a full member and made his debut against Ireland in Chicago.
But the 2024 All Blacks contain no new faces and no apprentices, and they are travelling to the Northern Hemisphere with not a hint of the coaches having even half an eye on 2025.
This is primarily because of three things. Firstly, there is an All Blacks XV tour that will run concurrently with the All Blacks’ tour – providing opportunity for the next generation with games against Munster and Georgia.
Robertson had a guiding hand in picking that team and he’s also going to create opportunity for the likes of Peter Lakai to stay on in Europe and train with the All Blacks.
In Henry’s tenure, the All Blacks didn’t lose a single November Test between 2004 and 2011.
His argument is that it makes more sense for someone such as Hotham to play for the All Blacks XV than be with the All Blacks, where he will see limited, if any, game time.
Secondly, the whole tone and nature of the November touring window has dramatically changed in the last six or seven years due to the rise and rise of the Northern Hemisphere.
In Henry’s tenure, the All Blacks didn’t lose a single November Test between 2004 and 2011. When Hansen took over in 2012, the All Blacks lost a fixture to England, which was the first time New Zealand had been beaten in November/December for 10 years.
Hansen’s All Blacks would lose two more – both to Ireland – in 2016 and 2018, but their record was still an incredible played 27, won 24 against Six Nations opposition in November.
But a trip to Europe is not the soft touch it once was. The All Blacks only made it there twice under Ian Foster because of Covid and they lost two of four in 2021 – to Ireland and France – and drew with England in 2022 after beating Wales and Scotland.
Playing England, Ireland and France in consecutive weeks is arguably a much tougher gig than having to go back-to-back against the Springboks in South Africa, as the All Blacks did in August, and Robertson has understandably concluded that the November window is no longer necessarily the right place to bring a few uncapped players and give them their chance to make a name for themselves.
The All Blacks have already lost three of nine Tests on Robertson’s watch – a record that leaves him in vulnerable territory in comparison with other first-year coaches.
Ultimately, the real reason Robertson has loaded his squad with veterans, whom he thinks will know how to dig the All Blacks out of tough spots in tough venues, is that he can’t afford the defeats to continue to pile up.
The All Blacks have already lost three of nine Tests on Robertson’s watch – a record that leaves him in vulnerable territory in comparison with other first-year coaches.
Henry, for example, won 10 of 12 in his first year, Hansen 12 of 14 with a draw and John Hart 12 of 13 in 1996. These are the sorts of numbers Robertson needs to produce to get in line with the most successful of his peers. Even if the All Blacks win all five of their tour fixtures, the best they can finish with is a 78.6 per cent win ratio.
That number will be 71 per cent if the All Blacks drop just one game on tour; it will be 64 per cent if they drop two, and it will be 57 per cent if they lose three.
To put this into some kind of perspective, in 2009 when the All Blacks finished with 10 wins from 14, it was treated as a catastrophe. Hansen, who was then an assistant coach, had to be shuffled from his role with the forwards to lead the attack such was the pressure for NZR to be seen to be doing something to change the team’s trajectory.
In 2021, the All Blacks won 80 per cent of their Tests, which included retaining the Rugby Championship and beating South Africa, but it was rated by media outlets as a four out of 10 season.
And in 2022, when the All Blacks finished with nine wins and a draw from 14 tests, two assistant coaches lost their jobs while head coach Ian Foster only just clung on to his.
Robertson knows he’s got to produce victories in Europe more than he does next generation players. Hence his decision to rely not only on those older, experienced types who have played in London, Dublin and Paris before, but also the entirety of the squad who have been with him all season.
Every Test match is critical. Every time we play one of these games it’s the biggest game in the year for all these teams.
Continuity, he says, is critical and he clearly feels that the team is finally building something having produced their most convincing performance of the season to beat Australia in their last Test.
“As we know, as I’ve said before, everything is new,” Robertson said in why he’s made so few changes. “The squad and the members that have been in know our Test week, they know how it works.
“Cohesion is really important as we go north. All those combinations and relationships count. We’ve kept a tried combination.
“Every Test match is critical. Every time we play one of these games it’s the biggest game in the year for all these teams. The northern tour is critical for us. We want to keep our momentum going.”
It must be tough having to write two articles a week about rugby because people keep repeating the same stuff, which in this case is pretty slanted."Cautious Robertson" might not have many new players in the Nov squad, but that's because he's already dished out eight debuts. It'll rise to ten in Japan. How often since the baby blacks in 86 has that happened?
Ireland has named just one new cap all year - late 20s Oli Jager who's spent nearly all his adult life down under. They have as many over 30s in their first choice 15 as Robertson has in his entire squad.
SA have a huge number of over 30s and nowhere near as many debutants.
Yet Robertson is criticised for being too cautious in his selections. I'm all for balanced criticism but this is ridiculous.
You only need say 4 changes to the squad core each year and 2 in the 23. These guys have at least 10+ yrs in their careers. They have a new 4,6,9,10 already in just the start 15. He doesn't need to add more now. Next yr he needs a 7 and 12. You can see they are looking at 10,13 too. Don't expect Reiko, bb or dmac to play in 2027. So there is more change going on than we think.
By end of next yr we will have a 50% refresh and yes some such as bb and dmac are just players stepping in for those who left. But change is change.
The Razor gang is certainly a lesson in counting your blessings while you have em ie the blessing of Mr 70% Foster & the ‘1 point off a RWC cup’ team he & his coaching team developed.
Despite that Foster was criticised in the seasons b4 the RWC23 of endless ‘learnings’ and continuity as an excuse not to develop next generation AB (worst new AB starts in the professional era) ...
...But AB supporters should have been counting their blessings ‘Wonder coach’ (?) Razor took that Foster team & so far has 60% success, including just 15min of B.cup1 (therefore lost the other 65min) then finally a 1st of the season full 80min in B.cup2, ie AGAINST 10th RANKED, Wallabies.
Then pre the hardest AB Nth tour in history WHAT BACK UP[??] has Razor developed?
1 {Williams} / Tu’ungafasi &?- nil back up has been run
2 {Taylor}/ Aumua &?- nil
3 {Lomax}/ &?- Tosi with micro time
4,5 Locks {Vaa’I, S.Barrett}, P.Tuipulotu &?- but micro time for Barry
But worst of any Razor planning failures the most critical positions of all the 3 Loose forwards.
What development??
Yes Sititi, ie by luck awakens.
6,7,8 Loose forwards { Sititi, A.Savea } &?- retiring Cane?
What part of Blackadder's latest injury was a surprise to the Razor gang??
Perpetually injured Blackadder endlessly played when available but now no other experienced loosies available.
12 & 13 ALB R. Ioane &? Zero SR performer Havili!! OMG! But near zero time for SR star Proctor.
14 Reece &? But zero time for SR star & Narawa
15 {W.Jordan} &?
Its too late but V Japan MUST be STARTING game time & development for,
(2)Aumua, (3)Tosi, (4)Barry, (5)Tuipulotu (post injury) (8)Sititi, (6)Lakai, (9)Ratima/ Roigard (10)Plummer, (13)Proctor, (14) Narawa, (15) Love.
BUT again it’s all too late. As always I cheer & wish the best of Abs & the coaching gang, but the last decade's development & dominance of the North over the ABs tells me ‘Wonder coach’ (?) Razor has reasonably leap frogged any honeymoon straight into NZR performance warnings with only some if not all 2025 to correct HIS performance.
That will be tough given he's developed near zero new ABs for 2025.
I think you might have missed your own point that this was the predicament Foster left him with.
You have four years to address these concerns (proactively I mean), you can't expect even a messiah to fix what should have taken place over the last 4 years, in his first year.
Some truths about a fear of losing so Robertson has retained those two
Losing to Argentina wasn’t in the plan and things could get ugly on the EOYT sadly
England is a 50/50 game to me
We have better players overall but it’s at Twickenham and we always struggle there
I cannot see us beating Ireland or France
We will beat Japan and should beat Italy
So it’s going to be 2-3 losses
Cane is still playing well enough but TJ on paper is a waste
However as pointed out Hotham would get zero game time on tour so will get plenty in the NZ XV against top opposition
The big thing is to ensure TJ is there as a mentor only for the big games
Razor needs to start Roigard and Ratima
Don’t make Fozzies mistake and leave Roigard out of the World Cup final altogether
He really would’ve made a difference in that match unlike the boring Christie
Otherwise I’m happy with the depth being created
It takes time and the NZ XV is essentially a breeding ground for the ones who are good enough on tour
Should LOL
I don’t think TJ will get much game time after Twickenham, Cane will probably be used a bit more, but I’m really hoping that Lakai is the starting option by Dublin at the latest.
I want Finau to start dominating at test level like he does at super/NPC.
Finau 6, Wallace at 8 and Lakai at 7 would be a savage combo but Samipeni isn’t delivering at that level yet.
I love how 10s don’t get to swan around like a protected species when Finau’s out there, but those hits he makes are risky for cards.
If only Finau had the balls to hit forwards as hard as he hits much smaller 10s.
Shocking card in that quarter. Then Savea not even penalised next week. It's obviously still dependent on the ref any given weekend whether 10s are protected species or not.
They're think twice when Finau's in the opposition though, love that guys mongrel, hope he feels he can bring it out in Black.
You don't really believe this do you? Are you just talking generally or in a new cycle?
The real story of this tour is that for the first time the ABs have a portion of their retiring vets available. Previously coaches had to pick new players, because all those that werent making it in four years time had been let go.
The story is pretty much what Razor says it is, "now how do we best utilize these assets". Sadly, the article gives no value in doing that. It is also off target suggesting these teams are so good. England are the only team to improve this year, and they started at an incredibly low base, perhaps even as low as Australia, being able to do no more than gimmick their way to a WC semi.
Both Ireland and France have regressed, so there would would have been some flexibility there to experiment being back on a level pegging, and in all honesty they probably will with their XV's (NZ, but their opponents will too).
Almost Everybody regresses a little after a RWC even SA. NZ have regressed. The 6N was the first tournament right after the RWC. Ireland beat France by 21 points which is usually a scoreline that France beat NZ by.
England improved significantly from almost knocking out SA in the RWC to beating Ireland and almost beating France although they bottled their chances in NZ.
Ireland recently beat SA with a lot of front line players missing and at the end of a looooong season.
NZ will have the advantage that these teams will have not played for several months but NZ have to prepare to win 3 in a row. These teams can focus primarily on NZ.
Even though NZ made a RWC final they are still only ranked #3. NZ supporters need to show some humility here.
Tj ,Cane and a few others are the problem, never get dropped no matter how mediocre. How can Reiko start ahead of Proctor or any other center's going round at the moment 🤔
I'm expecting razors plans in full display this coming tour. Answering a lot of questions.... Championship was trialling ... Fingers crossed
If cohesion is what they are worried about then I don’t get why they don’t just use the hurricanes combination of Jordie at 12 and Billy at 13.
Rieko is still lethal on the wing, decent under the high ball, they can play him there if they want.
"Every time we play one of these games it’s the biggest game in the year for all these teams."
He is overegging that one. A half-excuse?
I don't want to be cruel but this just isn't the case anymore for the ABs. eg For Ireland the games versus France and England were bigger as was the 6N Champs clincher versus Scotland. Both games versus SA were a lot bigger because of the circumstances and the huge International interest. This is the biggest game in the November series for Ireland sure.
I think Ireland wants to win because they feel NZ need to relearn some respect, but I think their mid term focus for NZ will be to prepare to eliminate them from 2027.
As for England, NZ is not even the biggest game in the series with World Champs SA coming to town.
Maybe Razor was trying to say its the NH teams biggest game in the series whereas NZ has three big games (and more strain on resources implied)
I feel that the Ireland game will be the biggest test for razor. Cause fosters biggest challenge was Ireland, and in the RWC he nailed it. So .... This will be an interesting comparison.... Tiny bit not fair cause razor first game against Irelan, compared to Fozzie .... But he says that they have been building in the past 9 games.
Haha what if Ireland lose, who needs to relearn respect then Terry?
Don't SA play all the same teams? I'm not sure the NH teams will go into these games with the same must win attitude, they generally don't, so in that respect he's over egging it, but I think he believes it.
Ireland are going to “eliminate” and “teach respect” to the All Blacks like they did in 2019 and 2023?
That was an awfully long winded article to conclude that Robertson is more concerned with his win / loss ratio than he is with building a new empire. The simple translation would be; he's developed a fear of losing.
Unfortunately to achieve anything great in life, you've got to be prepared to take a few risks and be comfortable with the possibility you might fail. Gone are the days the ABs can turn up with any old 15 and expect to win 80% of their matches. Playing it safe is not going to win us any WC's given the quality of the other top 4 or 5 nations we are up against.
As the saying goes, you generally get what you focus on in life. If you focus on not losing, unfortunately that's what you tend to attract.
The problem for Razor is that relying on the old guard could be a risk in itself. Both Cane and particularly Perenara have been heavily involved in the current win / loss ratio. Should the trip north not produce the desired results, it become more difficult to explain his approach.
It would be easier to claim progress and paint a bright picture for the future if losses came about with new talent being exposed to the cauldron of northern test rugby.
Besides, as fine a servant as Cane has been; it's difficult to escape the fact he is heavily tied to the worst period of modern AB rugby.
When we voted with our keyboards for change, that's exactly what we wanted. Too many of the current leadership group have become a bit to used to losing.
I genuinely don't know if holding on to the same leadership group for as long as possible to impart their knowledge onto the next generation is the radical change of direction fans were demanding.
I'd prefer they would invite McCaw to tour north and share some knowledge. There's a bloke who knows something about turning a losing culture into a winning one.
Fresh players bring less baggage. We've seen that clearly with the likes of Sititi, Roigard & others, who haven't yet learnt how to gaze into the void when things are going wrong.
Perhaps it's our fault as fans. Razor will be only too aware how quickly the public can turn if things go badly having watched Foster's show. Perhaps it's NZR HQ, who sell the ABs brand to any bidder with some cash to spare - promising wins, wins and more wins.
Certainly the NZR financial model which is almost entirely based on flogging the ABs eternal winning brand probably can't afford a period of rebuilding.
Whatever the cause of Razor's fear, the real fear is that the short sighted thinking will come bake to haunt us.
SA are busy building two squads of test ready players, while Razor prefers to shun young talent in favour of soon to retire servants who are past their best.
Not in the mind of this author, and probably half the commentors on here. 80+% is still expected, even if not obtainable.
The All Blacks shouldn't use copouts like that.
Well said.
That's really unfair, that is Rassie's playbook right there (admittedly it was something I was really happy he was doing because I thought it made SA easier to beat haha). They also do have two squads.
Of course Robertson has developed a fear of losing.
He gets crucified after a loss against Argentina in only his fourth test. And then most Kiwis are so delusional they expected the All Blacks to sweep the Springboks at home ignoring they are two-time defending world champions with a very settled team.
Unlike Rassie, who is permitted to throw out a development team and not get massacred in the media for losing, Kiwis expect to win every game despite their historic winning percentage being 70% not the 85% of Henry and Hansen eras.
I expect the All Blacks to beat Japan, England, and Italy and split the tests between Ireland and France, finishing the season at 10-4. That is a very successful first season, especially with the emergence of Williams, Tosi , Vaa’i, Darry, Sititi, Ratima into the Matchday 23. Next season, Razor can introduce another new 4-6 players
To be fair, the article did come with a Long Read warning.
Something your comment is lacking.
So basically the article can be summed up as Robertson is more concerned with his win / loss ratio than he is with building a new empire.
And your response can be summed up as Robertson should take more risks.
If this is the case then he’s somewhere between a catch 22 and a Mexican standoff. He risks not delivering either.
More like Mexican standoff and Russian roulette.