One of the big decisions the All Blacks will have to make before heading off to Japan and Europe on their end of season tour is whether to take Sam Cane with them.
The former captain became the 13th All Black to win 100 caps when he started the final Rugby Championship Test against Australia in Wellington, and delivered yet one more bruising, relentless display that rocked the Wallabies ball carriers and gave New Zealand what they needed in the contact areas.
It was typical Cane and epitomised why All Blacks coaches Jason Ryan and Scott Robertson had tried earlier in the year to persuade the 32-year-old to extend his contract to stay in New Zealand.
But they weren’t able to as Cane, having suffered so many injuries in his career including a broken neck, couldn’t – at his age and with his medical profile – say no to a three-year deal at Suntory. So in December, he’ll head to Japan and retire from Test rugby.
It seems a no-brainer that Cane should be picked. He’s available, in great form and gives the All Blacks a hard-edged, experienced and respected leader.
“As long as I am contracted to play here in New Zealand, I want to go,” Cane confirmed after the 33-13 victory over the Wallabies.
“But I’ll leave that up to them [selectors]. I can understand if they don’t want to go down that path. I have enjoyed the environment. I have enjoyed my role within the team.”
When Cane says he would understand if they wanted to go down a different path, it is an acknowledgement that the team has an obligation to be thinking beyond 2024.
It’s a fascinating dilemma for the All Blacks because they have so much to balance. They are heading on the road with a 66 per cent win ratio, which doesn’t give head coach Scott Robertson much leeway in Europe.
The All Blacks coaching panel must determine whether it’s in the best long-term interests of the team to keep picking the 32-year-old, knowing that they are going to have to find a replacement for him next year.
The question really boils down to whether the panel believe they would be taking too big a risk by not taking Cane – that is, do they believe they can win consecutive Tests against England, Ireland and France without him?
Or is the difficulty of the schedule the ideal opportunity to start finding out more about who might be the right person to replace Cane longer-tern in the No 7 jersey?
It’s a fascinating dilemma for the All Blacks because they have so much to balance. They are heading on the road with a 66 per cent win ratio, which doesn’t give head coach Scott Robertson much leeway in Europe.
A couple of defeats and the All Blacks will finish with a record of nine wins from 14 Tests – the same return they produced in 2022 which was considered so disastrous that it almost led to head coach Ian Foster being fired midway through the season.
Robertson needs big performances, and he needs wins against three supremely physical teams where the key battlegrounds will be set-piece and breakdown – and it is the latter that will be keeping him awake at night.
The All Blacks scrum has been strong and consistent, and having got the better of England earlier this year and Ireland at the 2023 World Cup, there will be little fear about what might happen there.
New Zealand’s lineout, after a wobbly start against England in July, has found its rhythm, primarily because young lock Tupou Vaa’i has improved out of sight and built the confidence to go after opposition throws.
Cane’s speedy elevation to the No 7 jersey was a sign of just how much the All Blacks respect him and need him.
But the breakdown is an area where the All Blacks continue to be hit and miss. It’s an area where they still struggle to adapt to referee interpretations, as evidenced by the number of penalties they conceded in the first half against the Wallabies in Wellington.
On top of that, Robertson will have memories of England getting the better of his team in that area in July, and Ireland really schooling the All Blacks two years ago in New Zealand in the art of getting bodies over the ball.
And this brings the question of Cane to the fore. He wasn’t match fit in July, and it was telling that the instant he was, the All Blacks put him in their match-day 23.
He played off the bench against Argentina at Eden Park, and then with 30 minutes of Test rugby under his belt, he was promoted to start the following week at Ellis Park.
His speedy elevation to the No 7 jersey was a sign of just how much the All Blacks respect him and need him.
They needed his experience, his toughness and instincts to be not only making effective, dominant tackles on the gain-line that create turnover opportunities, but also his ability to be the stealer himself.
Since Cane has been available, the balance of the All Blacks back row has looked better and their work at the breakdown has been slicker. They have won more turnovers and in Sydney against the Wallabies, Cane was at his best, pulling off a couple of critical plays that changed the momentum of the game.
“He turns up in the right position and you saw him get that hard ball on the ground last week against Aussie,” Robertson noted. “He anticipates the game really well. He reads it and that is what we need around our leadership.”
But it’s also Cane’s leadership that Robertson wants. He needs victories in Europe to not only keep the public and his employer happy, but to build confidence among the players.
To get victories and to build confidence, he needs experienced players instilling calm, mentoring the next generation and helping the team learn the nuances of Test rugby.
He is a bit of a sheriff. He’s got it in the holster and then bang, he’ll fire and says this is how it is.
Cane, as a former captain, can help set standards at training. He can show others the expected level of professionalism and discipline required to succeed at this level.
“He is one of those guys you have got to get to know,” says Robertson. “From afar, you have got an opinion but then when you see him and meet him, what he is in and around the environment, he’ll say things that others won’t. I don’t say that lightly.
“He is a bit of a sheriff. He’s got it in the holster and then bang, he’ll fire and says this is how it is. I am going to call you out, or this is the All Blacks standard.
“And it’s his ability to do it week after week in a tough position. He has broken his neck. He has bounced back. He’s consistent on the field.
“The leadership part for me is something I really respect and he has been great for us in our environment and more important he has performed.”
Ultimately, what Robertson will be asking himself is whether the team is ready to be without Cane? What sort of impact will it have on the team if he doesn’t take Cane to Europe?
Have the All Blacks got enough confidence in their other leaders to ensure they can get results without Cane and have they got another No 7 who can produce the same quality of performances?
Robertson admitted this sort of questioning has occupied much of his time in the last few weeks, because he and his fellow selectors also have to pick an All Blacks XV squad that will play two games in Europe in November.
He says that will prove handy as it will enable some players to transition between the two squads, and most likely that means someone such as Hurricanes openside Peter Lakai, who is on the shortlist to take Cane’s No 7 jersey, can probably split his time between the All Blacks XV and All Blacks.
The All Blacks are not ready to play without Cane yet. They need these victories in Europe more than they need to begin the process of finding their next No 7
“The All Black environment is full-on,” says Robertson. “From dawn to dusk it’s full-on and there’s a rugby game at the end of the week.
“How do you get that mix right for a young guy like Peter [Lakai] to get his body right, to get mentally right, to set him up to take that opportunity? That’s the good thing about those two games with the ABs XV — we can mix and match.
“It’s important that you’ve got an eye for now and an eye for the future, always.”
The answer is likely to be that the coaching group will find a win-win solution where they can take Cane and yet groom Lakai in the process.
The All Blacks are not ready to play without Cane yet. They need these victories in Europe more than they need to begin the process of finding their next No 7, and so giving Lakai some time to be mentored by Cane before he leaves, and possibly come into contention to play the final Test of the tour against Italy, is a compromise solution that makes sense.
Cane was poor v AUS at Wellie. Ardie & Scooter had 19 completed tackles each, he had 12, not good for your #7. Not to mention the two he clearly missed when being run past. Sititi had 10 to go with his 19 carries. Cane's other stats were middling to invisible, as to impacting the game. He's on the decline, time to go help out the ABXV.
Time to move on from Cane IMO. His performances have not been consistent for some time and the next generation 7s need to find their own edge without interference. Even the great McCaw didn't linger around to offer his straight shooting philosophy and insights to those following his tenure and he had MUCH more to offer than SC. Enough of the sentimentality.
Perhaps we should be asking who of Papali'i or Jacobson gets the chop. You've got to take Cane and Lakai, to not do so is a missed opportunity with Lakai. He is the future and has massive upside, while in Jacobson I don't see much of value or future gain. Papali'i has been in middling form so could be nervous too. There's plenty of cover for all 3 loose forward positions even without Robinson in the mix.
They are ready to play without Cane and can get results without him. Its not dependent on one player. Cane can impart alot to the youngsters. He should go but should be rotated between the bench and the starting lineup. The sooner they get their new 7 in place the better.