One of the big decisions the All Blacks will have to make before heading off to Japan and Europe on their end of season tour is whether to take Sam Cane with them.
The former captain became the 13th All Black to win 100 caps when he started the final Rugby Championship Test against Australia in Wellington, and delivered yet one more bruising, relentless display that rocked the Wallabies ball carriers and gave New Zealand what they needed in the contact areas.
It was typical Cane and epitomised why All Blacks coaches Jason Ryan and Scott Robertson had tried earlier in the year to persuade the 32-year-old to extend his contract to stay in New Zealand.
But they weren’t able to as Cane, having suffered so many injuries in his career including a broken neck, couldn’t – at his age and with his medical profile – say no to a three-year deal at Suntory. So in December, he’ll head to Japan and retire from Test rugby.
It seems a no-brainer that Cane should be picked. He’s available, in great form and gives the All Blacks a hard-edged, experienced and respected leader.
“As long as I am contracted to play here in New Zealand, I want to go,” Cane confirmed after the 33-13 victory over the Wallabies.
“But I’ll leave that up to them [selectors]. I can understand if they don’t want to go down that path. I have enjoyed the environment. I have enjoyed my role within the team.”
When Cane says he would understand if they wanted to go down a different path, it is an acknowledgement that the team has an obligation to be thinking beyond 2024.
It’s a fascinating dilemma for the All Blacks because they have so much to balance. They are heading on the road with a 66 per cent win ratio, which doesn’t give head coach Scott Robertson much leeway in Europe.
The All Blacks coaching panel must determine whether it’s in the best long-term interests of the team to keep picking the 32-year-old, knowing that they are going to have to find a replacement for him next year.
The question really boils down to whether the panel believe they would be taking too big a risk by not taking Cane – that is, do they believe they can win consecutive Tests against England, Ireland and France without him?
Or is the difficulty of the schedule the ideal opportunity to start finding out more about who might be the right person to replace Cane longer-tern in the No 7 jersey?
It’s a fascinating dilemma for the All Blacks because they have so much to balance. They are heading on the road with a 66 per cent win ratio, which doesn’t give head coach Scott Robertson much leeway in Europe.
A couple of defeats and the All Blacks will finish with a record of nine wins from 14 Tests – the same return they produced in 2022 which was considered so disastrous that it almost led to head coach Ian Foster being fired midway through the season.
Robertson needs big performances, and he needs wins against three supremely physical teams where the key battlegrounds will be set-piece and breakdown – and it is the latter that will be keeping him awake at night.
The All Blacks scrum has been strong and consistent, and having got the better of England earlier this year and Ireland at the 2023 World Cup, there will be little fear about what might happen there.
New Zealand’s lineout, after a wobbly start against England in July, has found its rhythm, primarily because young lock Tupou Vaa’i has improved out of sight and built the confidence to go after opposition throws.
Cane’s speedy elevation to the No 7 jersey was a sign of just how much the All Blacks respect him and need him.
But the breakdown is an area where the All Blacks continue to be hit and miss. It’s an area where they still struggle to adapt to referee interpretations, as evidenced by the number of penalties they conceded in the first half against the Wallabies in Wellington.
On top of that, Robertson will have memories of England getting the better of his team in that area in July, and Ireland really schooling the All Blacks two years ago in New Zealand in the art of getting bodies over the ball.
And this brings the question of Cane to the fore. He wasn’t match fit in July, and it was telling that the instant he was, the All Blacks put him in their match-day 23.
He played off the bench against Argentina at Eden Park, and then with 30 minutes of Test rugby under his belt, he was promoted to start the following week at Ellis Park.
His speedy elevation to the No 7 jersey was a sign of just how much the All Blacks respect him and need him.
They needed his experience, his toughness and instincts to be not only making effective, dominant tackles on the gain-line that create turnover opportunities, but also his ability to be the stealer himself.
Since Cane has been available, the balance of the All Blacks back row has looked better and their work at the breakdown has been slicker. They have won more turnovers and in Sydney against the Wallabies, Cane was at his best, pulling off a couple of critical plays that changed the momentum of the game.
“He turns up in the right position and you saw him get that hard ball on the ground last week against Aussie,” Robertson noted. “He anticipates the game really well. He reads it and that is what we need around our leadership.”
But it’s also Cane’s leadership that Robertson wants. He needs victories in Europe to not only keep the public and his employer happy, but to build confidence among the players.
To get victories and to build confidence, he needs experienced players instilling calm, mentoring the next generation and helping the team learn the nuances of Test rugby.
He is a bit of a sheriff. He’s got it in the holster and then bang, he’ll fire and says this is how it is.
Cane, as a former captain, can help set standards at training. He can show others the expected level of professionalism and discipline required to succeed at this level.
“He is one of those guys you have got to get to know,” says Robertson. “From afar, you have got an opinion but then when you see him and meet him, what he is in and around the environment, he’ll say things that others won’t. I don’t say that lightly.
“He is a bit of a sheriff. He’s got it in the holster and then bang, he’ll fire and says this is how it is. I am going to call you out, or this is the All Blacks standard.
“And it’s his ability to do it week after week in a tough position. He has broken his neck. He has bounced back. He’s consistent on the field.
“The leadership part for me is something I really respect and he has been great for us in our environment and more important he has performed.”
Ultimately, what Robertson will be asking himself is whether the team is ready to be without Cane? What sort of impact will it have on the team if he doesn’t take Cane to Europe?
Have the All Blacks got enough confidence in their other leaders to ensure they can get results without Cane and have they got another No 7 who can produce the same quality of performances?
Robertson admitted this sort of questioning has occupied much of his time in the last few weeks, because he and his fellow selectors also have to pick an All Blacks XV squad that will play two games in Europe in November.
He says that will prove handy as it will enable some players to transition between the two squads, and most likely that means someone such as Hurricanes openside Peter Lakai, who is on the shortlist to take Cane’s No 7 jersey, can probably split his time between the All Blacks XV and All Blacks.
The All Blacks are not ready to play without Cane yet. They need these victories in Europe more than they need to begin the process of finding their next No 7
“The All Black environment is full-on,” says Robertson. “From dawn to dusk it’s full-on and there’s a rugby game at the end of the week.
“How do you get that mix right for a young guy like Peter [Lakai] to get his body right, to get mentally right, to set him up to take that opportunity? That’s the good thing about those two games with the ABs XV — we can mix and match.
“It’s important that you’ve got an eye for now and an eye for the future, always.”
The answer is likely to be that the coaching group will find a win-win solution where they can take Cane and yet groom Lakai in the process.
The All Blacks are not ready to play without Cane yet. They need these victories in Europe more than they need to begin the process of finding their next No 7, and so giving Lakai some time to be mentored by Cane before he leaves, and possibly come into contention to play the final Test of the tour against Italy, is a compromise solution that makes sense.
Its time for Cane to retire. Im sure he was retained just to get his 100th cap. Id be interested in what Wayne Smith (the Professor) has to say he was brought back from the Gold Coast before ABs v Oz at the Caketin last Saturday. But then he maybe on his way to help the Women’s v England
Just keep picking Auckland show boats and under performing chiefs and finish the destruction of the ABs.
They don't need Cane to show them what the AB standards should be. They have plenty of other guys who have been in the environment and Razor was an AB himself... plus they don't need to carry over the culture from foster and hansen, which in itself probably needed a refresh. Well done Sam, time for the next generation
Cane was barely up to the job against a very average Australian team, even in the last game that the ABs dominated his individual stats are probably the worst of any AB. Talk of him being "in form" is based on vibes and rose tinted glasses now his career is international career is nearly over.
He has nothing left to offer the ABs on the field, even in the short term. Every other option available to play 7 offers more, and getting someone like Lakai into the mix sooner rather than later only has upsides.
Looking at the 3 big matches
NZ is the biggest match in November for all 3 teams. Ergo they should be better prepared than NZ who will have to split preparation 3 ways (no offense to Italy).
Should they more target specific games? They know a lot about England ?
A weeks prep between 3 big matches ofcourse resembles sharp end of a world cup. As well as player development there is MAJOR opportunity for management/coaching development. It would be worth Robertons time to really analyse the f**k out of the manage/coaching performance ...barriers ..curve balls ETC. Even have someone along slightly removed just for that recording task for the post tour analysis.
The overall SA win in '23 was arguably a coaching victory especially versus France.
Respect to Sam Cane for a long distinguished career, but this idea that he is in incredible form currently is debatable. Paul is lauding his game against Australia, but it was in fact fairly average:
7 carries for 10m (1.4m)
3 penalties conceded
0 dominant tackles
2 missed tackles that lead to big line breaks
Plus 1 lineout take, 1 turnover and 12 tackles so okay there, but compare that to NZs best 7 - Ardie Savea:
12 carries for 30m (2.5m)
0 penalties conceded
19 tackles
0 missed tackles
1 dominant tackle, 1 turnover
Cane played better against SA, but faded against the the Aussies. Perhaps it was the higher aerobic nature of playing our neighbours he struggled with. Agreed, Savea is a far more effective player, he's been both our top tackler and carrier over the entire tournament. He's achieved that while looking a touch short of form.
Best players this season....Sititi, Vaii, Ratima. Why wouldnt we bring in young blood. Give Akhai a run. Cane has had his day. Id rather lose a few blooding talent. Mc Caw made his debut Ireland from memory. Daltz also needs to come back into the mix
Exactly, there's been a fair few MVP performances from the young bucks. It puts paid to the theory that we should favour experience. A dynamic mix is what we need.
He has to go I think. All that experience will be invaluable when they play 3 big tests in 12 days.
Cane should do himself and his family a favour and sail off to the Japanese sunset.
He missed too many tackles for the ABs now and is too slow.
He didn't do us any favours in South Africa.
Papali'i is the best 7 in the squad but Jacobson is also more accurate than Cane now days.
They'll probably go with their Crusader favourite Blackadder if he's fit now that Sititi has been firing.
Razor and Ryan need to him the favour and not pick him. He clearly still wants to play.
Gregor Paul seems to be watching a different sport. From what I see Sam Cane has been on the losing end of the last two world cups, one he got red carded in the final as captain and on Saturday missed critical tackles and had a low offensive workrate with no penetration ball carrying and massively inferior to Sititi.
Dalton hasn't set the world on fire but was the openside against a tough combative England where we won both tests, he doesn't miss tackles or give away costly red cards.
What is obvious is that Cane keeps hanging around as a guy that's 'sherrif', part of senior player control over selection.
That's the job of Scott Barrett, the Allblacks need to stop this mediocrity of senior Allblacks having a boys club that prevents and blocks the next generation that isn't in that circle.
If Gregor Paul had the nous of other rugby analysts like Hamish Bidwell he'd be demanding to know why Cane is still hanging around when his stats are terrible and calling for a succession plan for Savea who is clearly in decline, immediate shift from eight and headed for the exit over the next 12 months due to age clearly catching up to a player that clearly peaked prior to 2024.
Cane should have been finished up after the world cup final debacle but instead has managed to get the seven role, helping produce two losses in South Africa where a more dynamic loose forward selection would've gone toward winning both.
No question Cane has been a tough competitor, but his peak was around 2018 and he should be long gone.
Have to agree but not about Savea, guy is just warming up again, like Codie Taylor, had a poor patch last season but he came right for the world cup and is playing great now.
100%
Change the name to MOUNGA and you are 100% correct.
Here here, well said, well written!
Yeh good point re leadership. Barrett needs to stand on his own 2 feet...not convincing so far
Agreed CO!
It seems clear that NZ needs to win in Europe. Or at least that journalist believes they do. I wouldn't put them as favourites for any of the matches bar Italy. Cane should have been gone a long time ago. His successor surely should have been blooded during RC to be in position to benefit now.
100%. If Robertson should have had the guts to blood Lakai, for example, against Australia. Eye to the future my asp.
Take him as Koro. Maybe a bench option.
Sam is obviously a great influence off the field - which might beg the question as to what the rest of the leadership group are contributing. But on field? I've tried to follow him round the field, from a good seat in Wellington, and fail to see all these qualities you speak of Gregor. He misses tackles, gives away penalties, is a weak carrier, often gets rag-dolled when he goes into contact or cleans, and is often let down by his anticipation radar (ie when Fessler scored off a maul in Sydney, or when Tom Wright skinned him so easily in Wellington). Nice guy, great in the environment, but I really don't get why he's holding his place at 7. BTW, what has happened to Papali'i? His 'thumb injury' in South Africa wasn't bad enough to have any visible strapping when the camera panned to him in the stand. His demise seems to have coincided with Leon McDonald's. Curious.
As does Telea with Reece
It’s important to factor in that the ABs shouldn’t be expected to beat France and Ireland away. Playing it safe, then, doesn’t make sense. Taking less experienced players over to Europe now makes more sense. The only other time they’ll be able to do it again is next year. Razor and co. are wasting time and valuable opportunities to build depth.
They should have used the dead rubber against Australia, but the fact that they didn’t tells me they won’t do it in Europe.
So they are risking looking worse for losing with an experienced team at the end of the year and a terrible win ratio and no rebuilding to show for it.
That’s the issue; they need to win three massive games in less than 3 weeks and build the next generation at the same time.
I think they have a much greater chance of doing that with Sam cane than without him.
His work allows the strike players to do their thing.
Cane was poor v AUS at Wellie. Ardie & Scooter had 19 completed tackles each, he had 12, not good for your #7. Not to mention the two he clearly missed when being run past. Sititi had 10 to go with his 19 carries. Cane's other stats were middling to invisible, as to impacting the game. He's on the decline, time to go help out the NZ XV.
Time to move on from Cane IMO. His performances have not been consistent for some time and the next generation 7s need to find their own edge without interference. Even the great McCaw didn't linger around to offer his straight shooting philosophy and insights to those following his tenure and he had MUCH more to offer than SC. Enough of the sentimentality.
Perhaps we should be asking who of Papali'i or Jacobson gets the chop. You've got to take Cane and Lakai, to not do so is a missed opportunity with Lakai. He is the future and has massive upside, while in Jacobson I don't see much of value or future gain. Papali'i has been in middling form so could be nervous too. There's plenty of cover for all 3 loose forward positions even without Robinson in the mix.
If Razor and Ryan were thinking that way then Lakai would have been in these first squads. I 100% agree with taking Lakai, but Cane doesn't bring so much to the team that he should be there ahead of guys who will actually be around for the next 3 years.
They are ready to play without Cane and can get results without him. Its not dependent on one player. Cane can impart alot to the youngsters. He should go but should be rotated between the bench and the starting lineup. The sooner they get their new 7 in place the better.
I think this will be what happens too - maybe a start vs Ireland then off bench or in a suit for the other games.